Inside Politics: No silver coronavirus bullet

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Getting on public transport in the age of coronavirus sometimes makes for distressing viewing, with face masks worn below noses, on chins, on necks, or dangling from an ear. While we haven’t yet mastered the art of wearing a face mask, new data from the transport secretary suggests compliance is high. According to Grant Shapps, who is still self-isolating at home after the abrupt end of his holiday in Spain, around nine in 10 people are sticking to the rules on mandatory face coverings on public transport while 285 penalty notices have been issued for those breaking them. “Let’s help keep each other safe,” he added.

Inside the bubble

Our policy correspondent Jon Stone on what to look out for today:

You may have been thinking about whether to go away on holiday this year: Tony Blair has suggested one solution. The former prime minister's think-tank today says the government should introduce a traffic-light system for travel to different countries, with an 'amber' rating warning travellers that while things might be OK now, the situation could change. The report suggests that communicating the situation like this might give people more confidence to go away (and save the travel industry), while still protecting public health.

Daily Briefing

NO SILVER BULLET: Almost five months after the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the outbreak of Covid-19 a pandemic – leading to government-imposed lockdowns across the globe – the director general of the organisation had some sombre words for those hoping for a return to normal any time soon. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said there was “no silver bullet at the moment – and there might never be”, despite a number of vaccines in phase three clinical trials in various countries. His remarks came as the latest figures from the Department of Health and Social Care showed the number of new coronavirus cases in the UK had risen by 938 in a single day – the highest daily increase in confirmed infections since late June. Anxiety will be high in Number 10 as scientific advisers keep a close watch on the figures in the coming days and weeks.

SCHOOLS OUT: A new modelling study published in the Lancet has suggested the UK’s “world-beating” (Boris Johnson’s words) test and trace isn’t exactly world-beating. Shocking, right? It claims the system needs to be scaled up in order for schools to reopen their doors next month and for the country to avoid a second wave of the coronavirus. The authors found that with increased levels of testing and an effective contact tracing and isolation system, “an epidemic rebound might be prevented”. But they also warned in a worst case scenario, a second wave could be over two times the size of the first if there is a “continual gradual relaxation [of] control measures and insufficient test-trace-isolate”. Meanwhile, ministers have also written to medicine suppliers urging them to stockpile drugs for a possible no-deal in the EU trade talks at the end of the year. In a letter published on Monday, officials said the government recognises “that global supply chains are under significant pressure” because of Covid-19, but said the expensive precaution was still necessary.

ELECTION INTERFERENCE: Remember during the 2019 general election when Jeremy Corbyn brandished a confidential government document, sparking claims the NHS was on the table in US trade talks? Well, Reuters claims to have solved the mystery surrounding how the 451 pages of confidential papers ended up being leaked on the internet. Following the claim last month by Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, that “Russian actors” had sought to to interfere in the winter election, the news agency reported the documents were stolen from the email account of former cabinet minister Liam Fox by suspected Russian hackers. The UK government has said it would be “inappropriate” to comment on the reports due to an ongoing criminal investigation into how the papers were acquired. Neither the Kremlin or Dr Fox has responded to the claims.

LEAK NO 2: Exposing the sheer scale the coronavirus is having on the NHS, new figures obtained by The Independent show the number of patients waiting for more than a year for treatment in London alone is now almost 20 times the figure for the whole country in March 2020. Our health correspondent Shaun Lintern reports that across the capital, close to 20,000 patients have been waiting more than 52 weeks by 19 July – compared with 1,154 across England fewer than 18 months ago. The hospital with the largest number of long waiters is the Royal Free in Hampstead – run by the Royal Free Foundation Trust – which had over 6,000 patients more than a year by the week ending 19 July. “What really worries me is that those patients have not been seen and some of them will have cancer and urgent needs that have not yet been picked up,” says Rob Findlay, who runs the demand capacity planning company Gooroo.

SELF-IMPOSED EXILE: Spain’s former monarch, Juan Carlos, has unexpectedly announced he is leaving Spain to live in another country amid a financial scandal. In a farewell letter to his son, King Felipe VI, he informed the monarch of a “considered decision to move” out of the country due to the “public repercussions of certain episodes of my past life”. The once-popular king, who came to the throne after the death of General Francisco Franco in 1975, has given no indication of where he may have gone on his self-imposed exile. The former monarch is at the centre of investigations in Spain and Switzerland over allegations he was given millions of euros by Saudi Arabia’s late King Abdullah. In his letter published on the royal family’s website on Monday, Carlos said he did not want to make his son’s role difficult, adding that “my legacy and my own dignity, demand that it should be”.

On the record

"You can't do that."

Donald Trump when challenged by a reporter from Axios on the US deaths related to coronavirus as a proportion of the population.

From the Twitterati

“Life across the island or Ireland is peaceful and more prosperous today because of his courage, vision and determination. He guided away from violence and towards justice, tolerance and democracy. He takes his rightful place in the pantheon of leaders whose legacy is of creating a better world for the next generation”.

... Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on the death of John Hume, 83, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his part in bringing peace in Northern Ireland

"John Hume was quite simply a political giant. He stood proudly in the tradition that was totally opposed to violence and committed to pursuing his objectives by exclusively peaceful and democratic means."

... reacts prime minister Boris Johnson

Essential reading

Hamish McRae, The Independent: What happens to TikTok matters to the world economy. Improbable? Yes, but it’s no exaggeration

Jess Phillips MP, The Independent: Serious allegations should merit action – but mortality doesn’t often win out in politics

Ed Young, The Atlantic: How the pandemic defeated America – a virus has brought the world’s most powerful country to its knees

Richard Horton, The Guardian: The threat of Covid should kindle global cooperation, not a new Cold War with China