Ministers are right to be cautious, but a clear lockdown exit strategy would give Britons hope

Editorial: The public, on the whole, has shown impressive compliance with rules that would otherwise be intolerable

(Illustration by Dave Brown)

There are many mysteries around the coronavirus pandemic, but no doubt that the current UK lockdown will continue for the foreseeable future.

The first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, and the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, have already said as much. The various medical and scientific experts that the government relies on have made no secret that they feel there is insufficient evidence about the impact of the current restrictions to recommend replacing them soon. No one is making plans for a traditional Easter getaway.

Yet ministers in the UK government seem curiously shy about admitting the evident truth. In part this is because they have to abide by the formalities of the statutory 21-day review, though such things don’t always overcome the temptation to spin.

But this official resistance to discuss the eventual relaxation and end of the emergency lockdown is also based on concerns about mixing their messages. The government has a point. The public, on the whole, has shown impressive compliance with rules that would otherwise be intolerable. That is because the messages have got through, albeit the education campaign and the restrictions were launched later than they should have been.

Talking now about opening up freedom of travel might make some people think that the Covid-19 pandemic has passed, whereas in reality deaths will continue (though at a declining rate) for many months as the virus works its way through the population.

A consequent spike in new cases could still overwhelm the NHS. Ministers are right to stress the need to stick to the rules and urge us to get through this current phase before dreaming about flying out to some paradise isle.

Even so, the public might find it easier to bear the sacrifices they are being asked to make if they were reassured that there is in fact an exit strategy. At the moment it looks like there is no such thing, and that the cabinet is afraid to frame one while Boris Johnson is in hospital.

This is too timid. The government could, for example, float some of the rumoured ideas being kicked around in Whitehall. There is a series of overlapping options. The most vulnerable could continue to be shielded even as the young are allowed to return to school and college, for example. Some regions where the peak has passed, say in London, could see some normalisation even as other areas, such as the southwest, are still on the upward trajectory for cases and mortality and the lockdown would stay in place. Across the country businesses could reopen sector by sector in a staggered way – the more essential and hard-pressed sooner than others.

The public should have a say in all this because it is only with wide public consent that any restrictions can be made to stick. Those that seem unfairly harsh, such as limited use of public parks, will be increasingly evaded. There is no point in draconian rules if everyone ignores them – and brings the whole strategy into disrepute. Similarly, the media and parliament have a legitimate role in scrutinising the rules as they develop.

As Sir Keir Starmer has sensibly added in this debate, no one is asking for precise dates or criteria from the government. All that is needed to encourage people as they endure these privations is a little hope. A sensible set of options would give us something more cheerful to ponder than the daily diet of confirmed cases and deaths. It would help win the battle.