Inside Politics: Polls and swings

Voters give their verdict in Chester byelection as Sunak comes under more pressure on decision to rehire home secretary, writes Matt Mathers

(PA)

Hello there, I’m Matt Mathers and welcome to The Independent’s Inside Politics newsletter.

Did the ball cross the line? That is the question haunting Germans this morning after their World Cup exit at the hands of Japan. There was no doubt about the result in Chester, where Labour inflicted a first electoral defeat on Rishi Sunak.

Inside the bubble

Commons proceedings get underway at 9.30am with a day of private members’ bills.

Daily briefing

Chester count

As expected, Labour has won the City of Chester byelection, retaining the seat and consigning Rishi Sunak to his first electoral defeat as prime minister. Samantha Dixon won 61 per cent of the votes, securing an increased majority of 10,974 – a swing of some 14 per cent from the Conservatives.

Dixon, speaking after the result was confirmed earlier this morning, described her win as “really, really encouraging” for her party, referring to the seat as a “bellwether constituency”.

“I think I have been in receipt of a very strong message from the voters of Chester that they want the Conservative cost of living crisis tackled immediately,” she told reporters. “I don’t think they believe that the Conservatives have the answers, I think they think it’s Labour’s turn now.”

Here are the full scores on the doors:

Samantha Dixon (Labour) 17,309 (61.22%, +11.58%)

Liz Wardlaw (Conservative) 6,335 (22.40%, -15.93%)

Rob Herd (Liberal Democrat) 2,368 (8.37%, +1.53%)

Paul Bowers (Green) 787 (2.78%, +0.15%)

Turnout: 41.2 per cent

What, if anything, can we learn from the result? As always, byelections should be treated with caution because each constituency has its own set of unique circumstances, with the governing party often performing badly. This was also a seat that Labour won in the past three outings.

Having said all of that, the size of the swing to Labour does – broadly – tally with the party’s consistent 20-odd point in the national opinion polls. And the increased majority was achieved despite the circumstances under which the incumbent resigned.

Sir John Curtis, the polling expert, said that, in terms of Labour defending a seat, it is the party’s best result in years. “With the possible exception of Middlesbrough in 2012, this is the best performance by Labour, the biggest swing, in any byelection since David Cameron walked through the door of 10 Downing Street,” he told BBC Radio 4 earlier.

He said that the result was “one indication that Labour are in a stronger position than they’ve been at any previous point…over the past dozen years”. If the swing was repeated at a general election, it would leave Labour with a majority, he added.

What does it mean for Sunak? The Tory vote dropped slightly less than expected. And at one point during the darkest days of Liz Truss, the Conservatives were 30 points behind Labour. It appears that the PM has improved his party’s prospects slightly. But it might be a case of too little too late.

(PA)

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Braverman latest

While the defeat was expected, it will be bruising nonetheless for Sunak, who continues to come under pressure for his decision to reappoint home secretary Suella Braverman just days after she was sacked by Truss over a security breach.

A Commons committee said Braverman’s rehiring set a “dangerous precedent” that undermines confidence in the integrity of the government.

Sunak should not have been able to “wipe the slate clean” over a breach of ministerial standards that merited a “significant” period out of office, said the Commons Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee.

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(Dave Brown)

On the record

Commons public accounts committee on Braverman.

“The reappointment of the home secretary sets a dangerous precedent. The leaking of restricted material is worthy of significant sanction under the new graduated sanctions regime introduced in May, including resignation and a significant period out of office. A subsequent change in prime minister should not wipe the slate clean and allow for a rehabilitation and a return to ministerial office in a shorter timeframe.To allow this to take place does not inspire confidence in the integrity of government nor offer much incentive to proper conduct in future.”

From the Twitterati

John Stevens, Daily Mirror politics editor, on Matt Hancock’s post-jungle activities.

“In a letter to his constituents last month, Matt Hancock wrote: “As soon as my time in camp is up, I will return to Suffolk to hold surgeries. Instead he stayed in Australia so he could cash in by doing a newspaper interview.”

Essential reading

• Adam Forrest, The Independent: Could the Tories lose their ‘blue wall’ heartland?
• Andrew Woodcock, The Independent: There’s only one reason why Boris Johnson wants to be an MP
• James Forsyth, The Times: Sunak plays for time as strikes start to bite
• Mary Dejevsky, The Independent: What do protests in China mean for the West?

Inside Politics first appeared in our daily morning email. You can sign up via this link.