It’s clear voters want Britain to take a harder line on China

As G7 leaders gather in Japan – with Beijing set to be a big topic – polling highlights where the electorate stands, writes Chris Blackhurst

Prime minister Rishi Sunak on his way to the G7 meeting in Japan (PA)

At the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, a key theme is China. There’s the symbolism of meeting in a city devastated by nuclear aggression, across a sea from a country that constantly displays its military prowess. There’s the proximity, too, to Taiwan, the fate of which is a running sore for China – one that shows no sign of abating.

The location provides added piquancy, but that is all. The truth is, it would not matter where the leaders assembled – China and how to deal with Beijing would be high on their agenda.

The fact, as well, is that they don’t know what to do. On the one hand, they fear China’s ambition and not only towards Taiwan. Wherever you go in the world where there are natural resources and commodities to be secured, you will likely come across the hand of Beijing. It’s got its sights on everything it might one day need, from vital minerals to essential foodstuffs. Items that it could, one day, deny to the rest.

China is everywhere; in real estate, finance, data, software, tech. Combine that with a regime that rules through repression – that exhibits a singular approach to human rights – and the recipe is set for conflict.

Dealing with this ever-present tension, how to avoid it escalating and what to do if it does is what occupies politicians and their officials in the world’s capitals and wherever leaders gather. China, many leaders feel, is not to be trusted. But how to resist its overtures, especially if they come laden with money, is not easy.

The result is a mismatch. Ahead of the G7 the prime minister Rishi Sunak has said the leaders will be “making sure that we as G7 allies are aligned in our approach to protecting ourselves against the risks and challenges that China poses”.

Sunak has said the UK is “very aligned” with the US, with President Joe Biden’s politics towards Beijing. This would include limiting outward investment to China in sensitive areas, such as data gathering and artificial intelligence.

While they discuss China, an example of how relations can suddenly turn will be very much on leaders’ minds as well. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on energy supplies provides a profound lesson in what can go wrong. Where once there was a bond comes vulnerability. The risk a hostile China poses to the world’s economy and markets is far greater. Unlike Russia now, China is an economic superpower, capable of wreaking immense havoc.

It should assist the leaders, therefore, that while they dither and try to balance protection with lucrative partnerships, their electorates are possibly more clear cut. Certainly, that is the case in the UK. A research paper procured by Freshwater Strategy in collaboration with the Henry Jackson Society shows the British public are highly risk averse around ties with states such as Russia and China, and strongly support the imposition of increased safeguards and restrictions across several sensitive areas.

“Public anxiety about ensuring there are strict protections is grounded in a real and growing trend. Whilst collaboration with Russian entities is minimal, partnerships with Chinese academics and companies have grown by 34.7 per cent between 2018 and 2021 alone,” said Freshwater Strategy consultant Morgan James.

Freshwater’s public opinion polling found that 68 per cent of UK voters believe the likes of China should not be allowed to participate in research on cybersecurity software. For DNA testing, a majority, 51 per cent, felt the same.

It’s an election issue, something the main parties would be foolish to ignore. Among Liberal-Democrats, 44 per cent said they would definitely consider voting elsewhere if their party was seen to be soft on China. For Labour, 52 per cent said the same of their party.

Perhaps most surprising was the Tory figure: 25 per cent of Conservative voters said they would seriously consider switching their support. This, from the party that is traditionally closer to business and more commercially minded, is telling. If followed through, it could be enough to lose the Tories the next general election.

Perhaps for the first time, the poll illustrates the seriousness with which UK voters regard upholding values around human rights, data privacy and democratic principles. Until now, there has been the persistent sense that these are not election-clinchers, they’re nice things to have, to promote, but when it comes to putting a cross on the ballot paper, not so important.

Not anymore. Possibly, Russia and the fallout from Ukraine have hardened attitudes. People do not desire a repeat and one that could be much worse. Underpinning it, though, is that abiding sense of British fair play – voters are no respecters of nations that do not treat their people, as they see it, correctly.

Party strategists know this. It’s noticeable how much tougher the Tories and Labour have become in their stances towards China recently. This poll can only further strengthen their hand.

What this means is a harder line on cooperation and more rigorous interrogation of proposed business deals and funding alliances. Scientific research initiatives can expect to be put through the mill and, quite probably, rejected. The days of British firms and educational institutions rushing to embrace China are over – it’s not only the government that takes that view, the people are saying so, loud and clear.