To stop the coronavirus, the world must resist both complacency and panic

Editorial: We can expect this crisis to get worse before it gets better

The decision to hold a meeting of the UK government’s Cobra emergency committee yesterday was a welcome sign that ministers were taking seriously the outbreak of the coronavirus which began in China. It was also an ominous reminder that Britain cannot expect to escape its shadow.

After the meeting, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said the risk to the public “remains low”, though previously it was put at “very low”. So far, 14 patients tested for the respiratory virus in the UK have been given the all-clear. Public Health England warns that it is “highly likely” cases will be seen in this country.

In China, there have been 26 deaths. More than 900 cases have been confirmed around the world, including a small number in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, France and the US.

Worryingly, the Wuhan virus comes from the same family that led to the Sars outbreak in 2002-03, causing 774 deaths across the globe. Although it appears to be less dangerous than Sars, its incubation period of about five days concerns experts. Several health workers have been infected, and it is estimated that someone with the virus will pass it on to between 1.4 and 2.5 others.

China has deservedly won plaudits from around the world for its unprecedented response to the crisis. The lockdown in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people where the outbreak started, has been extended to 12 other cities and a total population of 41 million. Remarkably, a 1,000-bed hospital is being built on the outskirts of Wuhan and is due to be open within 10 days.

Reacting to such an outbreak demands a delicate balance, avoiding both complacency and panic. So far, the World Health Organisation has stopped short of declaring a global emergency. That is the right call for now, though clearly it should be kept under review.

Initially, the Chinese authorities, who can be ruthless in controlling internet access for the country’s 1.4 billion people, played down the outbreak. But after Xi Jinping, the president, declared that “people’s lives and health” must be put first, officials are thankfully being much more transparent about the spread of the disease – in stark contrast to their handling of the Sars disaster.

It is a recognition that good public health requires good public information. Chinese leaders doubtless hope that swift action will ensure the economic damage is less than that inflicted by Sars.

However, people are much more mobile now: more than 200,000 people take flights in and out of China every day, six times as many as at the time of Sars. And the outbreak comes at a difficult time: Chinese new year, which usually sees the biggest mass movement of people in the world.

It is still relatively early days – and this crisis is very likely to get worse before it gets better.