As Brexit trade talks loom, Boris Johnson risks repeating Theresa May’s mistakes

Inside Westminster: Whatever threatening noises the UK makes, the EU has heard it all before

Probably without Big Ben’s bongs, Boris Johnson will milk the UK’s departure from the EU on 31 January. After that, he hopes that Brexit will slip out of the headlines so he can show voters tired of hearing the B-word that his government is addressing their day-to-day concerns: the NHS, crime, schools and the cost of living.

Any respite will be brief.

The UK and EU are already sniping at each other ahead of what will soon become fractious negotiations on a trade deal. While Johnson wants to learn from Theresa May’s mistakes over the withdrawal agreement, he risks repeating them.

The two sides can’t even agree when talks should begin. London wants a February kick-off, hoping Johnson’s refusal to extend the transition period beyond 31 December will concentrate minds. But Brussels plans a March start, making a very ambitious timetable even tighter.

The EU wants to land access to the UK fishing waters by July, and to initially discuss that and goods. But Downing Street is keen not to let the EU dictate the timing and content of the talks. If that determination to set the agenda sounds familiar, that’s because it is.

In 2017, David Davis, then Brexit secretary, predicted the sequencing of the divorce talks would be “the row of the summer”. It wasn’t; May caved in. Her ministers confidently predicted they would “divide and rule” as differences between the EU27 surfaced. They didn’t; the EU remained united. Member states left the talks to the European Commission, blunting the UK’s efforts to pick off national leaders.

Johnson’s allies insist things will be different because he has a thumping majority of 80 and a five-year term that will see him outlast many EU leaders. They insist the 27’s common goals on the divorce payment and citizen’s rights in phase one will crumble because of widely differing interests in the trade talks.

UK ministers believe countries like France, Belgium and the Netherlands are more interested in limiting trade friction because of their ports; Spain, France and Denmark see fishing as crucial; Poland worries most about freight transport, while others prioritise tourism.

However, the UK will face the same EU negotiator across the table in Michel Barnier, and Johnson cannot assume the 27 will start squabbling amongst themselves. I doubt they will.

There are also predictable noises that ministers are relaxed about “no trade deal” and a World Trade Organisation regime from next January. Johnson will probably hold the threat of a US trade agreement over the EU’s head, knowing it fears losing the UK from its regulatory orbit. The view among Brussels officials is that a deal with Donald Trump (and the US congress) will prove more difficult than London thinks.

If the EU refuses to compromise, ministers hint, Johnson would be prepared to walk out of the EU talks. They believe this would play well among the Tories’ new working class voters in the north and midlands.

But we have seen the no-deal movie too. May got in a pickle after saying that “no deal was better than a bad deal” but then decided the opposite was true. Johnson threatened no deal but ultimately signed up to one – 95 per cent of which was May’s agreement.

On the crucial issue of whether the UK will align with EU regulations, the 27’s starting point for a “no tariffs, no quotas” deal is May’s agreement to stick to existing EU standards on workplace rights and the environment and sign up in advance to future EU rules on state aid and tax.

The aim is to stop the UK undercutting the EU and becoming “Singapore-on-Thames”. Although the government insists it sticks more closely to EU state aid curbs than other member states, its rescue of Flybe has been read in Brussels as a sign of a more aggressive stance.

Johnson is adamant the UK must have the ability to diverge from EU regulations. “‘Taking back control’ is not just a slogan, it will be the reality,” one ally told me. Johnson has ordered his ministers to look for opportunities offered by divergence; he thinks May saw Brexit as a damage-limitation exercise. Ministers admit there will be limits to the current frictionless trade. “There will be trade-offs, in return for the freedom to go our own way,” one said. Stand by for a backlash from car makers and other manufacturers when this becomes clear.

For now, EU officials are not losing sleep over the familiar threatening noises from London. They have seen the movie too. “Gamesmanship and brinkmanship are not going to work on this occasion,” Phil Hogan, the EU trade commissioner, told Lord Mandelson at a conference staged by his Global Counsel business advisory firm on Thursday.

There will be many twists and turns in the talks over the next 11 months, and probably a dramatic last-minute ending. Johnson is doomed to fail on one front: Brexit will still be in the headlines.