Inside Politics: Boris Johnson on course for big majority, poll reveals

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There are only 14 days until we go to the polls

Time to take your protein pills and put your helmet on – we’re about to go floating in a most peculiar way. Australian astronomers have used a supercomputer to give us stunning new views of the Milky Way, the galaxy we hadn’t hitherto seen properly because we’re right in the middle of it. Boris Johnson, our space cadet at No 10, has been handed a similarly far-out new perspective this morning. The YouGov geeks have put a huge amount of poll data into their supercomputer and come up with the first major projection of the campaign – giving the Tories a hefty majority of 68. An out-of-this-world ideal for the PM. Can he make it a reality in two weeks’ time? Or can Jeremy Corbyn cause a cosmic disturbance before then? I’m Adam Forrest, and welcome to The Independent’s daily Inside Politics briefing.

Inside the bubble

Our political editor Andrew Woodcock on what to look out for on the campaign trail today:

Climate change should take centre stage in the election today, as party leaders face questions about how they will tackle the issue in a TV debate on Channel 4 this evening. Labour is pledging to plant two billion trees by 2040 and create 10 new national parks as part of its plans to tackle the climate crisis. Jeremy Corbyn will set out Labour's environment policies on the south coast, while Boris Johnson is out campaigning in Devon. Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson is giving a speech in London, and will accuse Johnson of repeatedly telling lies and dragging the office of prime minister “through the mud”.

Daily briefing

ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL: Boris Johnson isn’t a guy who likes to be pinned down by numbers. Asked on Wednesday how many times he’d ever had a Greggs, he replied: “How many times have I ever not had a Greggs?” The Tory leader will, nevertheless, be delighted by YouGov’s detailed, seat-by-seat analysis showing his party is currently on course to win 359 seats, giving him a comfortable majority of 68. The firm’s model predicts Labour taking only 211 – a loss of 51 – which would be the party’s second-worst performance of the post-war age. Corbyn, who spent some time bricklaying earlier this week, may need to get the plaster out again. The model shows the Tories dismantling his “Red Wall” in the Midlands and North. YouGov’s Chris Curtis said Labour could still “paste over the cracks” if the narrowing in the polls continues. But, he warns, “time is running out for Labour”.

BATS IN THE BELFRY: A trigger warning for the faint of heart: Dominic Cummings has had some thoughts. And he’s written them down in his blog. The intellectual powerhouse at No 10 published a post entitled “BATSIGNAL!!” (which makes him Detective Gordon?), advising Tories against complacency. “Things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament,” he states, before claiming Labour and the SNP would try to “rig” a second referendum. Some spotted his post had been altered. Cummings originally warned that Corbyn would “waste 2021 on another Scottish referendum” – before it was changed to say simply “there’ll be another Scottish referendum”. Johnson has also been in writing mode. In a new piece for The Spectator he claims to have secretly been a massive anti-cuts activist all along, telling colleagues in government in 2010 that austerity was “not the right way forward”.

DARK AGES PAGES: Johnson, of course, has written a whole load of guff for The Spectator over the years – and some of his sexist sentences from the 1990s may be about to cause him problems. The PM is today pledging to make sure 50 per cent of future Tory candidates are women. But an article unearthed by Labour shows he described the children of single mothers as “ill-raised, ignorant, aggressive and illegitimate”. He also argued it was “feeble” for a man not to “take control of his woman”. Shami Chakrabarti said it showed the Tory leader was stuck in “the dark ages”. Johnson does appear to have a problem with women. Visiting a hospital in Penzance, one fantastically disdainful nurse asked him: “Do you have a nurses’ tree too, as well as a magic money tree?” He told staff his promise to deliver 50,000 more nurses was “full costed,” but the nurses were having none of it. Another asked: “Where are these people going to come from?”

SECRETS AND LIES: Corbyn has successfully managed to make the NHS the focus of last 24 hours, following his dramatic press conference about UK-US trade deal documents. The Labour leader claimed the unredacted 451-page dossier showed a secret plot to “sell our NHS”. The Tories insisted it was all a “dead cat” distraction from Corbyn’s Andrew Neil disaster, with Michael Gove accusing Corbyn of peddling a myth “as credible as the Loch Ness monster”. So who’s telling fibs? Well, despite Johnson’s claim the health service is “not on the table in any way,” the document does show the US is trying to get the NHS to pay more to American companies for the drugs they sell. It also refers to the US policy of getting “total market access” as a starting point in negotiations. Labour will argue you can’t trust a Tory government not to agree to such a demand.

DUCKING AND CLUCKING: The BBC probably thought they could trust Johnson to keep his word about an interview appearance. But they were probably wrong. The Beeb’s press team revealed they had not been able to fix a date for a planned live appearance with Andrew Neil – prompting howls of outrage. Nicola Sturgeon used a chicken emoji, while Sky’s Adam Bolton tweeted a duck image and suggested the date would not be getting fixed. Labour folk are furious at the lack of professionalism, arguing that Corbyn should not have been subjected Neil’s mauling, sorry, questioning unless a firm agreement with Johnson had already been made. Accusing the PM of “running scared”, McDonnell added: “The BBC is hardly covering itself in glory in this election.”

On the record

“This is not only a plot against our NHS, it’s a plot against our country.”

Jeremy Corbyn reveals uncensored UK-US trade negotiation documents using the most dramatic possible terms.

From the Twitterati

“Tory source says better take the hit for [ducking] take the risk of @afneil. Happy Days!”

Sky News’ Adam Boulton suggests Johnson is about to dodge his interview with Andrew Neil...

“This is an absolute disgrace from @BBCNews. They lied to Labour and said they’d agreed an interview between Andrew Neil and Boris Johnson next week. If that doesn’t happen then no one can ever trust a single word the BBC say ever again and senior figures will have to resign.”

...leaving Owen Jones fuming.

Essential reading

John Rentoul, The Independent: The YouGov poll is not the end of the election – there is still huge uncertainty ahead

Betty Boothroyd, The Independent: How society treats its young defines us. Boris Johnson is determined to strip our young citizens of their future

George Grylls, New Statesman: Dominic Cummings’ blog shows the Tories are worried by the Lib Dems

Dahlia Lithwick, Slate: America’s descent into legal nihilism

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