Which political factions are poised to defeat Theresa May’s final gamble to rescue Brexit?
Politics Explained: The prime minister’s enemies will come in many different guises when the showdown comes in early June
Theresa May will face multiple enemies both in front and behind her when she makes her next – and final – attempt to rescue her Brexit deal, early next month.
Here are the parties and political factions expected to vote against the withdrawal agreement bill, suggesting it is heading for a crushing defeat that will end her premiership.
Labour (almost all of the party, probably)
Jeremy Corbyn is expected to whip his 246 MPs against the bill, although his spokesperson left open abstaining, despite the failure of talks with the government.
Even if he did order an abstention, up to 150 of his MPs who are demanding a Final Say referendum would defy him, splitting the party down the middle.
Around 30 Labour MPs could be tempted to back a better Brexit deal, but – despite No 10’s attempts to woo them – only a handful will, as the bill currently stands.
Brexiteer Tories
The number of rebels in this camp fell to 28 at “meaningful vote three” in March, but is on the rise after they were strong-armed into abandoning cherished opposition, only to see the deal defeated anyway.
With anger rising, and the delicious prospect of forcing out the prime minister if she loses again, this faction could head towards the 75 who defied her at meaningful vote two.
Pro-Final Say Tories
A diminished number, after three defections to Change UK, but that still leaves five Conservatives demanding a fresh referendum.
Democratic Unionist Party
Its 10 MPs, despite being the prime minister’s supposed allies, will continue to vote against her deal while it contains the Irish backstop in its current form.
The parties united against Brexit
The Scottish Nationalist Party (35 MPs), Change UK (11), Liberal Democrats (11), Plaid Cymru (4), Green Party (1), a total of 62 MPs.
Independents
Of 10 MPs sitting as independents, after quitting or being kicked out of their parties, at least six will vote against the bill.
It adds up to between 350 and 400 MPs poised to reject the bill and only around 250 likely to enter the lobbies with Ms May – with little chance of those numbers shifting before the vote in the first week of June.
There is no escape in sight for the soon-to-be ex-prime minister.
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