Why are moderate Tory MPs moving towards backing Boris Johnson as next prime minister?

Politics Explained: Some Tory Remainers would rather have the buffoon they know than, say, Dominic Raab, who served too briefly as Brexit secretary to make his mark

Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, “liked” a Boris Johnson tweet yesterday, which could have been one of the more significant interactions in the history of social media.

Johnson was responding to the launch of One Nation Conservatives, a group of mostly soft-Brexit Tory MPs. He said: “Agree with all of this. One Nation values have never been more important.”

Three years ago, the then leader of the Leave campaign clashed with Rudd in one of the referendum debates, when she said: “Boris is the life and soul of the party but you wouldn’t want him to drive you home at the end of the evening.”

Their rapprochement is important not just for the two of them but because it marks a wider movement among Tory Remainers to fall in behind Johnson’s campaign to succeed Theresa May as Tory leader and prime minister.

For some time, it was assumed that Johnson would find it hard to secure the support of enough Tory MPs in the first stage of a leadership election to make it to the shortlist of two names that will be presented to party members for the final ballot.

Part of this assumption dated from the extraordinary events of 1 July 2016, when Michael Gove shocked Westminster by ditching Johnson, his ally, to stand as a candidate himself, and when Johnson ended his leadership campaign launch speech by saying: “I have concluded that person cannot be me.”

The feeling lingered that Johnson: a) had embarrassingly few supporters among Tory MPs, and, b) lacked the character to press ahead against adversity. Johnson did little to advance his claim as a candidate of the future during his unimpressive stint as foreign secretary.

He had already lost most of the cross-party and cross-generational appeal that helped him win the mayoralty of a Labour city (twice) by becoming the public face of the Brexit campaign.

Nevertheless, he remained one of the best-known politicians in the country, with a reputation as a campaigner.

Theresa May’s failure to deliver Brexit on 29 March means that her premiership is now close to its end, in circumstances that favour Johnson. As a Brexiteer who resigned from the government rather than be associated with the compromises of the withdrawal agreement, he has moved to the front of a wide field of leadership hopefuls.

As it goes, the betting markets suggest he has only a 36 per cent chance of being the next permanent Tory leader, which implies that gamblers still have doubts about his support among fellow MPs – although two recent surveys of party members, by Conservative Home and YouGov, suggest he would defeat all comers if he made it to the final stage.

Rudd’s rapprochement is significant evidence that some Tory Remainer MPs accept Johnson may be the least bad choice. Many of them would rather have the buffoon they know than, say, Dominic Raab, who served too briefly as Brexit secretary to make his mark.

Rudd is assumed by some Westminster cynics to want to be the first female chancellor, and it would help Johnson present a united front if he appointed her – although his to-and-fro with Andrea Leadsom in the fumbled early stages of the last leadership contest suggest that any promises he might give would not be bankable.

But One Nation Tories can also convince themselves that Johnson was once a pro-immigration, liberal Tory mayor of London – and that he would be a better prospect as prime minister than some of the more ideological Leavers, who are the only realistic alternatives to lead a party whose members now want a no-deal Brexit by two to one.