Japanese Grand Prix: Was this when Sebastian Vettel's slim title hopes finally slipped away?

The German will start Sunday's race way down in ninth after a blunder by his team while title rival Lewis Hamilton sits on pole

Is it an augury that Lewis Hamilton has exactly the same number of points here – 306 – as he did last year on his way to his fourth world championship?

Maybe, maybe not. But even more promising in terms of this year’s quest is that he will start the Japanese GP from pole position – the record-boosting 80th of his career. And that title rival Sebastian Vettel will start only ninth after another organisational disaster befell Ferrari.

Having been fast all weekend, Hamilton dominated the first qualifying session, as expected, with a lap of 1m 28.702s. But Ferrari looked more promising, with Vettel next up on 1m 29.049s ahead of Valtteri Bottas on 1m 29.297s in the second Mercedes. Vettel didn’t help himself when he spun in the Spoon Curve, and then there was a delay after the session had to be red flagged when Marcus Ericsson made a mess of his Alfa Romeo Sauber.

Q2 started dry, but later became damp. This time the Mercedes pilots set the pace on the soft-compound Pirelli tyres, which means they can start the race on them if it stays dry. This means they will be able to run longer than their rivals, who all qualified in this session on the less durable supersofts, and can then use the supersofts later in the race on a lighter fuel load and when those same rivals will be on the slower tyre.

This time, however, Bottas flexed his muscles after victory in Russia last week, to edge out Hamilton with 1m 27.987s to 1m 28.017s. Vettel wasn’t all that far away on 1m 28.279s, in third place.

There was some concern whether Hamilton had damaged his car’s floor over a kerb, but he was adamant that he had not run wide anywhere.

The final session began on a damp track, which left teams to make the decision whether to stay with the supersoft slick tyres, or play it safe on rain-clearing intermediates.

Ferrari opted for the latter where everyone else went for the slicks, and no sooner had Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel ventured out than they realised Ferrari had got it wrong again. “It’s quite dry, I’ll come in straight away,” Vettel said.

While the red cars lost a crucial dry lap of the track, Mercedes’s drivers were already at work.

Hamilton quickly reversed the Q2 result with a lap of 1m 27.760s, the fastest of the weekend, as Bottas ran him close with 1m 28.059s.

Ferrari’s error cost them dear, as Max Verstappen banged in a lap of 1m 29.057s to take third in his Red Bull.

The Mercedes has been quick all weekend (EPA)

By the time the Ferraris got wound up again, the Mercedes were rushing into the pits for fresh slicks in an effort to beat the incoming rain. Out on the track, Raikkonen snatched fourth with 1m 29.521s, but was soon sliding around on the slippery surface. Vettel, meanwhile, missed the boat completely. After lapping in 1m 32.192s, he went off in the Spoon Curve and failed to improve.

Neither did Hamilton or Bottas, who by the time they got back out found the same tricky conditions.

Further back, Toro Rosso team boss Franz Tost had issued a diktat that both cars should get into Q3 as Honda had produced a further upgraded race for their home circuit. In the end, great performances by the under-rated Brendon Hartley and Pierre Gasly (who will replace Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull alongside Verstappen next year) achieved that goal as they were sixth and seventh, an outstanding performance.

It was one that must have left Ricciardo feeling even more frustrated as loss of power on his Red Bull’s Renault motor left him down in 15th place in the line-up.

Verstappen joined the Mercedes' in the top three (REUTERS)

But Hamilton was yet again the star, together with a Mercedes team that have exorcised the ghosts of some shonky decisions earlier in the year and looked fearsome against a wobbling Ferrari.

“Making the call what tyres to go out on in Q3 was probably the most difficult part, figuring out what to do,” he acknowledged. “But the team were spot on with it and that gave us the opportunity to grab this pole.

“It’s definitely not a great feeling going into Q3 knowing you’ve had the pace to be at the front in Q1 and Q2 but that the stakes are changing in those tricky conditions depending on how hard you push. When Ferrari pulled out of their garage on intermediates I honestly didn’t think that was the right decision.

“Like I said, it was so difficult out there to make the right call, and that’s another real difference we as a team have made this year. Every team has smart people, but when it comes to making the right decision under pressure, that’s why we are the best team. There was a lot of pressure but everyone stayed cool, calm and collected. It’s such an honour to race with these guys, I’m so proud to be on this journey with them.”

He admitted that it was an anti-climax not to get a second lap in Q3.

“You sit in the garage and see one spit, two spits, then 10 spits… by the time you get to Turn 1 you’re not sure whether it’s going to be wet or dry, so I tiptoed in there…

“But my 80th pole… I can’t believe it! We’ve worked so hard to refine and improve this car, and even ourselves, and with Seb starting ninth that all definitely add to our championship momentum. It’s been an incredible year, but I never in a million years thought I’d see that number. It makes me think of all the great years I’ve had, first with McLaren and now Mercedes.”

Vettel will start way down in ninth (EPA)

Bottas was a lot happier with his car in qualifying than he had been in practice, after some big set-up changes, and said he was sorry not to have been able to do a second lap, while Verstappen was delighted to stick it to Ferrari with third place.

“Realistically we would have been close to them but it would have been hard to beat them,” he said, “but we made the right call in Q3 and that’s why we are third. I definitely wasn’t happy with the car yesterday, but with more downforce today it was good.”

When commentator David Coulthard suggested that he wouldn’t get in the way of the world championship battle as Vettel fought up from ninth, would he, he retorted, “Is it still a battle?”

Vettel desperately hopes that it is.

"I think the first run was sort of okay,” he suggested. “I had a mistake in Spoon so lost most of the time there. Obviously the second run we didn't make it out in time because the rain came and we were too late, of course.

"Obviously it's not the position we deserve to be in. I think we have better speed than ninth, but we'll start there and see how it goes. Anything can happen tomorrow. Tomorrow is a new day."

Maybe so, but time and momentum seem to be running out for Ferrari and their four-time champion.