Japanese Grand Prix: How Mercedes taught their rivals a lesson en route to another title

A 1-2 next time out in Austin will secure Lewis Hamilton the title after Ferrari were once again left trailing their wake at Suzuka

If you believe some people, Lewis Hamilton already has his hands on a fifth world championship. Yet racing can be a fickle mistress, and he believes implacably that it would be premature to allow himself really to believe that.

A 67-point advantage effectively means that he could suffer two retirements – perhaps an engine failure here, a collision there – yet still be 17 points to the good with two races to go even if arch-rival Sebastian Vettel won on both occasions.

But…

While the outside world does the maths and hashes and dishes his best drives of the season and rakes over the mistakes that Vettel has made and the manner in which Ferrari have collapsed so spectacularly since Belgium at the end of August, Mercedes chief Toto Wolff gave some remarkable insight into how one major competitor handles such a high-pressure combat and keeps their eye on the ball without worrying too much what the opposition are doing. And refuses to count any chickens prior to them hatching fully.

“Have they collapsed?” he asked of Ferrari on Sunday evening in Suzuka where Hamilton had again decimated the opposition. It was almost as if the man with the Arnold Schwarzenegger voice had been so busy focusing on what Mercedes have to do that he not noticed. Which of course, he had.

“I think what we're trying to do is really to look at ourselves. They had a very strong Spa weekend, and we didn't perform as per the expectations we had in ourselves. And since then we've continued to really try to optimise our package and do the best possible job, on the car and in the car, with the drivers. And that has proven as the right tactic, and somehow none of us is looking at where Ferrari are, or how the championship goes, it's just aligning those weekends that eventually, hopefully, will leave the situation where we say 'we've won it'.

“I think it's important to stay concentrated. I don't believe in having your hands on the trophy, because you either have it in your hands or not. And we haven't got it in our hands, we haven't got the driver trophy and we haven't got the constructor trophy, which is a little bit further away.

“So the way we approach things is take race weekend by race weekend and try to optimise the car for every weekend, and then really take it as an ambitious target to perform on all tracks, in all kinds of conditions. And take every single race weekend as a new championship, from Friday to Sunday. And this has worked so far.”

Clearly, the rallying of the troops enabled Mercedes to make a big step since Belgium, with Hamilton winning the last four races at the very moment when Ferrari seemed set to dominate.

“Yeah. Monza, Singapore, and now here, three very different tracks, and we took it as an ambition to perform at all three, to prove to ourselves that we are capable to deliver a car on every sort of track, the high-speed Monza racetrack, the twisty, hot Singapore city circuit, and then Suzuka, which has a bit of everything. And I think now we have the car in a really good position, we understand how the aero works with the tyres, the drivers really feel well and have a lot of confidence in the car, and all that together I think made us outperform our competitors.”

Hamilton led from lights to flag (Getty Images)

For the first time anyone could remember, Ferrari boss Maurizio Arrivabene was openly critical of his team after the fiasco in which Vettel and Kimi Raikkkonen were the only runners to venture out at the start of final qualifying on intermediates tyres, as everyone else opted for slicks and got banker laps in before the rain arrived, just as Ferrari had made the switch back from rain tyres. Later, he put that down to those with experience not doing enough to share that with those below them.

“I think you have to have the right mix,” Wolff suggested. “You have to have experience in the team, that has seen similar situations, and you have to have the youth that approaches things without any boundaries, allowing innovation, providing a safe environment and the right mindset. And there is no silver bullet, I think you need to combine those skills in order to achieve good performances.”

If 2018 has proved anything, it is that Mercedes are incredibly resourceful, that Ferrari can build a car that is at least as good via technical director Mattia Binotto and his designers, but that Ferrari are still insufficiently mature in other key areas.

Hamilton has the title in his grasp (Getty Images)

“You have to set your sights high and so naturally, as you come into the season, you set the target high,” Hamilton said on Sunday after his 71st victory. “When we got to mid-season we got that win [in Hungary] going into the break and then again, really pushing to make sure that we come back even stronger, again we set the bar high. That’s what we were hoping to achieve, but it’s really not always the case that you achieve your target. But I think we have through really great hard work from everyone.

“Up until the mid-part of the season Ferrari were very strong and then we obviously got to Monza and then at Singapore was when it really started to tail off. I definitely hadn’t anticipated that. Not only have they lost a lot of performance, their performances have not been coming in as strong as they were before. I don’t really have an answer for that and it’s not something I’m really focused on. We’ve just been focusing on trying to do the best job we can and maximise the potential of our own ability, that’s all we can do.

“Honestly, I’ll take it one step at a time. Each week you have a positive weekend and you go to another grand prix and you’re not sure how you’re going to fare and how you’re going to perform, because there are still gaps in between. But I think we have gone from strength to strength this year as a team.”

Mercedes are within touching distance of another world title (Getty Images)

More than anyone, he knows it’s not over until the fat lady has done the maths. But if he can lead wingman Valtteri Bottas in another Mercedes 1-2 next time out at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, a track that he loves and on which he has won five of the last six races and not been beaten since 2013, the fight will be over even if Vettel follows them home.

Destiny beckons.