Italian Grand Prix prediction: F1 betting tips, best odds & free bets

Free Formula 1 betting tips and odds for round 16 of the 2024 season at the Italian Grand Prix

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Italian Grand Prix predictions

• Lando Norris to win by more than 20 seconds - 8/1 William Hill
• McLaren to be fastest in qualifying, win the race and secure the fastest lap - 5/1 Bet365
• Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium - 9/4 Talksport Bet

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The F1 juggernaut rolls into Monza this weekend for the Italian Grand Prix and there is a new favourite in town following Lando Norris’ dominant victory at Zandvoort last weekend.

The McLaren driver finished more than 22 seconds ahead of second-placed Max Verstappen to secure only his second-ever win, his first coming in Miami in May.

The completely dominant display by McLaren over the whole weekend at the Zandvoort circuit has Red Bull worried with both adviser Helmut Marko and Verstappen describing their performance as “alarming”.

Betting sites remain on the side of the world champion retaining his crown, though, with Verstappen 1/3, while Norris is a 3/1 chance.

Before the summer break, Norris spoke of “messing up” in the last few races and giving away “a lot of points”. He vowed to “reset and come back stronger” and that mentality, plus an impressive upgrade to his MCL38 car, has definitely worked.

Away from the fight for the title, there will be a new driver on the grid this weekend after Williams replaced Logan Sargeant with academy driver Franco Colapinto for the remainder of the season.

The American crashed his car heavily in third practice last week, causing extensive damage which meant he was unable to take part in qualifying and team principal James Vowles has taken immediate action, handing Colapinto the drive at Monza and beyond.

Italian Grand Prix preview: Norris to run away with it

When Norris lost the lead at the start of the Dutch Grand Prix, the 24-year-old must have thought that history was repeating itself, after events in Spain, Hungary and Belgium, where his chances of victory were compromised by being passed on the first lap, either through a slow start or an error.

The difference now, though, seems to be the fact he has the race pace to recover and, if last weekend is anything to go by when recording the biggest winning margin of the season, leave the competition in his wake.

Noris still has a lot of work to do, trailing Verstappen by 70 points in the Drivers’ Championship with 10 races to go, and Verstappen will be pleased he got the wins on the board when he did, or by now, the table could look very different.

The Dutch driver won seven of the first 10 races of the season but he has managed just one in the last six, taking the chequered flag back in Spain in June.

He’s also only been on the podium twice in that time and Norris is a clear favourite on most betting apps for the win in Monza.

He’s 6/5 with some new betting sites for a second consecutive win, but we’re more bullish about his chances and like his price to win by more than 20 seconds once more.

Italian Grand Prix prediction 1 : Norris to win by more than 20 seconds - 8/1 William Hill

Italian Grand Prix tip: McLaren to dominate the whole weekend

McLaren’s recent upturn in fortune has not only surprised their rivals but also the team themselves.

They are seeking their first constructor’s title for 26 years and are currently on an 11-race run of consecutive podium finishes, which includes victories at the Dutch, Hungarian and Miami races.

Before last weekend’s race boss Zak Brown admitted that his team are ahead of schedule, leaving him shocked that they are in with a real chance of winning the F1 Constructors’ Championship.

The upgrades introduced after the summer break seem to have given them even more speed and it’s unlikely that their rivals will have had the chance to do anything about it before qualifying starts in Italy.

Norris was fastest in qualifying at Zandvoort, won the race and secured the fastest lap last weekend. Back McLaren to complete the triple crown this weekend, rather than just Noris, means that his teammate Oscar Piastri can contribute as they look to eat into Red Bull’s 30-point lead at the top of the Constructors’ Championship.

Italian Grand Prix prediction 2: McLaren to be fastest in qualifying, win the race and secure the fastest lap - 5/1 Bet365

Italian Grand Prix tip: Hamilton to be back on the podium

It wasn’t to be for Lewis Hamilton last weekend but with four podiums this season, all coming in the last six races, the Brit could be in with an outside chance in Italy.

After all, it is a track he knows well.

He has five wins to his name at Monza, the joint-best record at the Temple of Speed, alongside the great Michael Schumacher, and although the last of those wins came in 2018 his recent wins at fast-flowing tracks in Belgium and Britain makes him hard to ignore.

It will be Hamilton’s last Italian Grand Prix before joining the Italian giants Ferrari at the end of the season, so no doubt he would love to impress the hordes of Tifosi in attendance.

Italian Grand Prix prediction 3: Hamilton to finish on the podium - 9/4 Talksport Bet

Responsible gambling

If you are planning to have a bet on the Italian Grand Prix this weekend, or any other sporting event, please remember to gamble responsibly.

Only ever bet what you can afford to lose and don’t ever chase your losses.

Betting can easily become addictive, so be sure to take precautions to remain in control of your budget and your time. Most sites will have deposit and loss limits, reality checks and self-exclusion, so you can set your account up to give more control to the time and money you spend gambling.

If you have concerns over your gambling, seek independent help. There are several UK charities and institutions that can offer you support, advice and relevant information, including:

• Gamblers Anonymous
• GambleAware
• GamCare
• NHS

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