F1 2023 season preview: Max Verstappen and his quest for No 3, Aston’s renaissance and what about Mercedes?

Verstappen is the man to beat in his rapid Red Bull but Aston Martin are the surprise package on the grid – as another season of frustration beckons for Lewis Hamilton and George Russell at Mercedes

For a brief moment – perhaps as much as a day as practice dissolved into qualifying – there were flickers of hope for the rest of the pack. Much-needed hope, too, for the spectacle of the contest for Formula One heading into 2023. Not only did it look like irrepressible world champions Red Bull, utterly dominant last year, could be hauled in, it looked like there could be a new team to join the big boys at the front. In British racing green to boot.

Aston Martin, spearheaded by two-time world champion Fernando Alonso, were the success story of last week’s pre-season test and look to have leapfrogged to the front of the midfield – and maybe even further. Alonso, 41, had dreams of a spectacular pole position as well after posting the quickest time in two out of three practice sessions at the Bahrain International Circuit.

Ultimately though, when push came to shove in the latter stages of qualifying, Red Bull’s hegemonic label bore fruit. Max Verstappen, chasing a third world title in a row, put his car on pole with teammate Sergio Perez locking out the front row alongside him.

Max Verstappen is on pole position in Bahrain as he targets a third-straight title (Getty Images)

Order restored. The gap was 0.138 seconds between Verstappen and Perez. Not a mammoth margin, but enough to represent the difference in quality between the pair. Qualifying, overall, gave us the first inclinations of where each team is and – all in all – it’s largely as expected.

Christian Horner’s Red Bull are, unquestionably, the team to beat. The Milton Keynes-based team won 17 of 22 races last year. Verstappen was top of the podium on 15 occasions; an all-time record. Mastered by chief designer Adrian Newey, this breed of Red Bull car is quicker and more reliable than the rest. No car is quicker in a straight line.

Conversation therefore turns to the teammates – and tension which boiled over in Brazil last year, when Verstappen disobeyed team orders by refusing to let Perez pass. Such a chasm in relations has been repaired, so we’re told, but another flare-up could pose an interesting side-plot to this season. Particularly if, as well could be the case, it’s simply the pair of them battling it out for the top honours.

However, that is not to underestimate the achievement of Aston’s renaissance. So slow and ponderous last year, their lack of competitiveness saw Sebastian Vettel lose patience and retire. They finished seventh in the Constructors’ Championship. Yet two-time world champion Alonso – that wily old fox – saw an opportunity where Vettel didn’t.

Ditching Alpine last summer in controversial, pie-in-the-face circumstances, Alonso saw an operation looking to expand and improve. Poaching Dave Fellows, Red Bull’s key aerodynamicist, was one such move. This year’s AMR23 car is his project – and Alonso’s posting of P5 in qualifying gives a terrific platform to work from.

Lance Stroll, taking part this weekend after injuring his wrist in a bicycle accident two weeks ago, came home P8. Their pace in testing gives Aston room for optimism heading into Sunday’s Grand Prix. Team owner Lawrence Stroll, father of Lance, set a five-year target of being world champions two years ago and will be watching on with a glint in his eye come lights out.

Fernando Alonso, the 41-year-old two-time world champion, has found a new lease of life at Aston Martin (Getty Images)

Ferrari, who felt so high and mighty a year ago when they claimed a one-two on opening weekend in Bahrain, remain rapid but have shaken-up their management team in the off-season.

Fred Vasseur, formerly of Alfa Romeo, has replaced Mattia Binotto as team principal following a host of reliability problems and, more significantly for Binotto, strategic errors. Dogmatic French executive Vasseur should bring clarity to Ferrari’s decision-making and has already made changes to personnel in the strategic department. But with one of the top jobs in motorsport comes immense pressure from the Tifosi fanbase. How he copes will be intriguing.

The Scuderia last year stormed back to the front of the grid after two years in the wilderness. Yet haphazard decision-making and immature confusion on the pit wall saw Charles Leclerc’s title challenge fade into the distance. The Monegasque is likely to spearhead their charge this year, ahead of last year’s Silverstone winner Carlos Sainz.

Today, Leclerc lines up third on the grid after, rather oddly, opting not to post a second flying lap in Q3 in an effort to save a set of fresh soft tyres for the race. Sainz is next to him in fourth.

And to Mercedes? Remember them. The hyper-dominant team of the hybrid era, their streak of eight constructors’ titles grinded to a halt last year as the new era of technical regulations caught them out.

Toto Wolff and his savvy bunch of engineers opted for a unique approach, with an unusual “no sidepod” philosophy. Yet porpoising (violent oscillations of the car) derailed their challenge from the off and despite a late surge – including George Russell’s first F1 win in Brazil – they couldn’t haul in Ferrari and finished a paltry third. Lewis Hamilton, for the first time ever in 16 campaigns in Formula One, failed to win a race in a season.

Lewis Hamilton, left, and George Russell in Bahrain (Getty Images)

Much of the excitement in the off-season surrounded what approach the Silver Arrows would take. Stick or twist? Well, they’ve stuck – and it may come back to haunt them.

Whilst the bouncing has discontinued, neither driver has been in a satisfactory place over testing and this weekend in Bahrain. Their W14 car looks rigid, with Hamilton in particular complaining about the balance of the car. Ahead of round one on Sunday afternoon, five-time winner in Bahrain Hamilton starts P7, with Russell a spot ahead in sixth.

What may light the fire at Mercedes is a sparking in teammate tension. Russell and Hamilton have been noticeably amicable since the young Brit’s arrival at the start of last season. But Hamilton – who finished 33 points behind his 13 years junior last year – doesn’t like coming second overall, let alone in his own garage. Should he fall behind again, any flare-up could bubble the British boyband.

To the rest of the pack: the chasers in the midfield. McLaren are a fan favourite due to their rich history and heritage but – having not won a drivers title since Lewis Hamilton’s first in 2008 – they don’t look a whole lot closer this year, having come home fifth last season.

Irrespective of rapid Brit Lando Norris in the cockpit, McLaren had a testing window plagued with issues. They look down on pace too. Norris – who starts P11 today having scraped into Q2 – is partnered by rookie Australian Oscar Piastri this year. Norris has a long-term deal at McLaren – but how long until his patience wears thin? If Perez starts in lacklustre fashion this season, he could well eye up Red Bull’s second seat.

Elsewhere Alpine, the luxury brand of Renault, have a tantalising all-French pairing this year in Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly, who replaced Alonso. While it’s all smiles for now, there’s no love lost between these two. The most likely driver pairing to boil over this year.

Points of note down towards the bottom include James Vowles – Wolff’s effective No 2 at Mercedes – taking on the job of a lifetime as the boss at Williams, who have finished bottom in four out of the last five seasons. They also have the only American on the grid – rookie Logan Sargeant – who has been quicker than expected so far, alongside Alex Albon. Haas, with popular team principal Guenther Steiner at the helm, look stronger too having ditched Mick Schumacher for the experienced Nico Hulkenberg.

Yet for all the forecasts and number-crunching, all eyes now turn to the real deal on the track. The Bahrain Grand Prix is usually an exciting race, with 3 DRS zones and an inviting overtaking spot down into turn one. Expect incidents and drama. Last year, for instance, Red Bull had a late double DNF (did not finish).

Nonetheless, the overriding question heading into a record 23-race season is this: can anyone challenge and beat Verstappen?