Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

World will approach record-breaking temperatures in 2019, says Met Office

'The forecast for 2019 would place next year amongst the five warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015'

Josh Gabbatiss
Science Correspondent
Thursday 20 December 2018 01:07 GMT
Comments
Why is it so hot in the UK and around the world?

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

Near-record high temperatures will hit around the world in 2019, Met Office scientists have predicted.

The average global temperature next year is expected to be around 1.1C above pre-industrial levels, bringing it close to the record-breaking heat seen in 2016 when temperatures peaked at 1.15C above the 1850-1900 period used as a baseline for global warming.

The rise will be the result of human-driven climate change combined with modest warming from the El Nino weather phenomenon in the Pacific, which pushes up temperatures further, the scientists said.

Forecasts issued by the Met Office at the end of 2017 for global temperatures this year were closely in line with what has been seen in 2018.

Then they predicted around 1C of warming, and estimates for January to October are showing temperatures around 0.96C above pre-industrial levels.

The predictions of a close-to-record hot year is the latest in the warming trend the world has seen in recent years.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: "Our forecasts suggest that, by the end of 2019, 19 of the 20 warmest years on record will have occurred since the year 2000."

Dr Doug Smith, Met Office research fellow, added: "The forecast for 2019 would place next year amongst the five warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015. All of these years have been around 1C warmer than the pre-industrial period."

The latest warning of rising temperatures comes after the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) revealed that 2018 was among the warmest on record, with only 2016, 2015 and 2017 hotter.

As countries met to agree the rulebook to implement the Paris climate agreement, which aims to limit temperature rises to 1.5C or 2C above pre-industrial levels, scientists said carbon emissions continued to rise this year.

Experts have warned of the need to take urgent and dramatic action across society to start to bring down emissions rapidly and put the world on track to limit temperature rises and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

After the two week United Nations climate summit in Katowice, Poland, ended last week, many thought that not enough progress had been made in acting to limit emissions and curb warming at the lower 1.5C target.

Support free-thinking journalism and attend Independent events

Climate change came under the spotlight this summer when scientists linked extreme weather events around the world, from heatwaves to wildfires, with elevated global temperatures.

They warned that in a warmer world, such events will only become more frequent.

Additional reporting by PA.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in