A perfect storm: Why flooding in Britain is getting worse

Analysis: An increase in autumn and winter rainfall caused by climate change has led to increasing floods in the UK and northwestern Europe, Phoebe Weston writes

Flood warning signs were put out in Pontypridd, Wales, after the Met Office issued a yellow weather warning (Getty)

This summer the UK has been inundated by floods – Whaley Bridge was evacuated amid fears a 200-year-old reservoir could collapse; sinkholes appeared on the M25 and train lines up and down the country closed.

On Wednesday, a Gateshead village high street was transformed into a river.

The UK obsession with the weather is no longer just filling polite chitchat – it’s front-page news too. People debate whether these extreme flooding events are caused by climate change or our ailing Victorian infrastructure.

Several studies suggest flood discharge has increased in Europe over the past five decades but until now there was no concrete trend linking these events together. The latest major study published in Nature has done exactly that.

The study is based on data collected by 50 scientists from 35 institutions in 24 countries. They looked at 3,738 separate data points spread over a 50-year period.

And – as is so often with stories about the environment – the future looks troubling, particularly for countries in northwestern Europe, like Britain. The study found north England and southern Scotland will be worst affected by flooding, with an 11 per cent increase in river flood levels per decade.

An increase in autumn and winter rainfall caused by climate change has led to increasing floods in the UK and northwestern Europe because the ground is saturated and less able to absorb excess water.

In other parts of the world, climate change is having a different effect on flooding. In southern Europe, for example, flood levels are decreasing due to declining precipitation while increasing temperatures are causing an increase in evaporation of water in soil.

Decreasing snow cover in eastern Europe, also caused by warmer temperatures, have also led to decreasing floods in the area, according to the authors.

One of the main takeaways of the study is that the UK needs to invest in infrastructure more urgently than ever.

According to the Environment Agency, whole areas of England on the coast or near rivers may have to be abandoned due to the threat of climate change. Over the next 50 years, an average annual investment of £1bn will be needed.

This will include building more barriers, sea walls and natural management schemes such as planting trees, building better drainage systems and not building over natural floodplains (this continues to happen).

We will also need more effective flood warnings and better emergency responses.

Currently the government’s own advisory body has said it is behaving like “Dad’s Army” when it comes to protecting the country against the challenges of a warming climate.

This latest research is another reminder that the government needs to put on a war-like effort to keep its citizens safe.