UK weather: Met Office predicts another record-breaking winter day as Britain basks in sun

‘February is meteorologically a winter month, and we are seeing the highest temperatures for winter ever recorded in the UK’

After a record high temperature for February of 20.6C and some of the hottest winter temperatures ever seen in the UK, the unseasonably warm weather is to continue before high winds and rain bring an end to the heatwave.

The Met Office predicts another record-breaking day for winter temperatures in the UK, with the possibility Tuesday could be even hotter in the south east than it was at Trawsgoed in Wales on Monday.

But by Thursday, the high pressure system bringing warm air up from Europe is expected to give way to see a “potentially very strong” weather system move in from the Atlantic, bringing rain, high winds and a fall in temperatures.

Met Office spokesman Grahame Madge told The Independent: “To see temperatures of over 20 on a winter’s day is exceptional. The previous record was 19.7 and that’s stood since 1998. It is a rare event to see temperatures this high in February.

“We’ve had a series of weather metrics that have meant we are getting those sort of temperatures: The fact we are getting the warm flow coming up from the south, the fact we’ve got high pressure giving us sunny days, which is adding to the temperatures, the fact it’s been dry - dry soil means the ground heats up more quickly and helps to boost daytime temperatures.

“A lot of different variables have all aligned to give us these high temperatures,” he said.

“That’s not going to last. We are now in a period of transition, and by Thursday we will see more Atlantic dominated weather where we get wind and rain.

“On Thursday we’re expecting to see rain in southern parts of England, and by Saturday we will be seeing the full force of the Atlantic dominated weather with a potentially very strong system affecting parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland.

“Temperatures are still likely to be somewhat above average. The average for February in southern England is a daytime maximum of about 7 or 8C, we’re still likely to see temperatures in double figures for many places. So we’re potentially still going to be seeing temperatures between 3 to 6C above average. It just won’t be the 12 degrees above average we’re seeing at the moment.

The Met Office warned against linking specific weather events with global climate change, but Mr Madge did say the warm weather does appear to tally with a rise in average temperatures.

He said: “It does fit the pattern - you would expect periods of warmer weather in a world dominated by climate change. We know globally temperatures have risen on average by about 1C since pre-industrial times, but it’s too simplistic and naive to say that this particular weather event must be because of climate change. We’ve always experienced extremes of weather and to anybody who doubts that, I’d refer them back to the Beast from the East last year when we saw daytime maximum temperatures a good 20C below what we’re seeing at the moment.”

Nonetheless, Mr Madge said the current high temperatures are considered “an extreme weather event,” and added “the background rate of warming may have just nudged it up a little bit”.

“February is meteorologically a winter month, and we are seeing the highest temperatures for winter ever recorded in the UK.”

In terms of average temperatures the month is “within striking distance” of becoming the warmest February since records began in 1910.