Farmers’ Almanac predicts a cold winter — but science says don’t count on it

The almanac has been around since the early 19th century

The Farmers’ Almanac has predicted a cold winter for much of the United States, telling people to get ready to “shake, shiver, and shovel”.

The almanac, an annual magazine with weather predictions and lifestyle articles that’s been published since 1818, predicts snow in much of the northern half of the US this winter, with “significant shivers” in the northeast and a “hibernation zone” in the northern prairies.

Even Texas, which has experienced a series of intense and prolonged heatwaves this summer, is expected to get “chilly”.

On the west coast, it will be mild and dry in the south and “brisk” up north, the almanac adds, while the southeast will be “shivery, wet and slushy”.

Despite the long history, many meteorologists dispute the accuracy of predictions from almanacs like the Farmers’ Almanac or the Old Farmer’s Almanac – which has been around even longer.

“Hey did ya hear? The Farmers Almanac says it’ll get cold and snow this winter. In other news, the sky is blue,” Sam Kuffel, a meteorologist for CBS58 in Wisconsin, tweeted last week.

One still-early and unofficial long-range forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) differs from the almanac’s forecast a bit.

The agency predicts that most of the US southeast, northeast and southwest will be warmer than usual, with only the far corner of the Pacific Northwest colder than usual.

NOAA predicts that the south will be drier than usual this winter, with the Midwest receiving a bit more precipitation than the norm.

NOAA is expected to issue its official winter weather forecast in October.

The Farmers’ Almanac says that its predictions are based on a secret “formula” that includes the tides and location of the planets. They also claim their forecasts are 80 – 85 per cent accurate.

Since the method of reaching their conclusions is a secret, it’s hard to verify the methodology scientifically. A couple of analyses have shown that the publication and the Old Farmer’s Almanac have had mixed results.

In 2014, a blog post from the OpenSnow forecast, a ski-weather app, showed that both almanacs were wrong about as much as they were correct with their 2013 winter predictions.

Analyses from meteorologist Jan Null, a former National Weather Service forecaster, for some years between 2005 and 2017 show mixed results for the Old Farmer’s Almanac, with some forecasts about right and some completely wrong.

Some of his analyses of NOAA’s forecasts also showed mixed results.

But as CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen explained in 2016: “We’re really good at the day of and the next day, (and) we’re better at temperature a ways out than precipitation.

“But to forecast out that far in advance … even the science behind our long-range forecasting is sometimes not that solid.”