Europe faces three-fold increase in heat deaths by end of century

Heat could become as big a threat for Europeans as cold by the end of the century

Deaths due to heat-related stress and illnesses could triple in Europe by the end of the century, scientists have warned.

Researchers say if current climate policies continue, heat could become as big a threat for Europeans as cold, which currently kills eight time more people.

The worst impact would be seen in southern Europe, including Spain, Italy, Greece, and parts of France, which are expected to be the most affected, according to the study publishedThe Lancet Public Health on Thursday.

Last two summers in Europe have already been the deadliest on record. In 2022, at least 60,000 people have been estimated to have died due to heat-related conditions, the highest toll on record. While in 2023, a study published this year found death toll to be at 43,729.

Under current climate policies, scientists from the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission estimate that by the end of the century, this figure could skyrocket from 43,729 to 128,809 annually by 2100.

Using data from 1,368 regions in 30 European countries, the researchers modeled temperature-related mortality risks for different age groups and various global warming scenarios.

This prediction is under the scenario when the global temperature rise by the end of the century will be 3 degrees Celsius, as projections show, double than what the Paris Agreement aimed for. However, if global warming can be limited to lower levels, the rise in temperature-related mortality could be significantly reduced.

The findings suggest that while deaths related to cold temperatures will slightly decrease, heat-related deaths will rise sharply, especially in southern Europe. Currently, around eight times more people in Europe die from cold than heat, but this ratio is projected to decrease dramatically by the end of the century.

“Our analysis reveals that the ratio of cold-heat deaths will shift dramatically over the course of this century, with those attributed to heat increasing in all parts of Europe and surging in some areas,” said Dr Juan-Carlos Ciscar, lead author of the study.

“At the same time, cold-related deaths will decline slightly overall. Our study looks at more than 1,000 regions across 30 countries, enabling the identification of hotspots where people will be worst affected in the future.”

A woman takes a selfie as she shelters from the sun with an umbrella near St Peter's Square during a heatwave in Rome, Italy (Reuters)

“Global warming won’t ‘save lives,’ as some misguided people suggest,” Dr Emma Lawrance, climate cares lead at the Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial College London, who is not part of the study, said.

“This research estimates that the number of heat-related deaths will continue to ramp up if humans keep warming the planet, while the number of cold-related deaths will only decrease slightly.

“It’s clear a hotter world is a deadlier world. With every tenth of a degree of warming from the burning of fossil fuels, we’ll see more deaths from extreme heat, fires, floods, and storms fueled by climate change, increased spread of mosquito-transmitted disease and poorer air pollution, among many other climate health impacts.”

The study warns of increased risks as the intensity of disasters is already increasing in Europe. Greece, which just saw a devastating wildfire which scorched an area the size of Paris near Athens.

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The study estimates that in a scenario where global temperatures rise by 3C, temperature-related deaths in Europe could increase by 13.5 per cent, resulting in 55,000 more deaths each year. The elderly population, particularly those over 85, is expected to bear the brunt of these changes.

Cold-related deaths are highest in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, with rates between 25 and 300 per 100,000 people. In contrast, they are lowest in Central and parts of Southern Europe.

Heat-related deaths vary from 0.6 to 47 per 100,000, with the lowest in the UK and Scandinavia and the highest in Croatia and the southernmost parts of Europe.

The researchers acknowledge some limitations in their study, including the focus on urban populations, who typically face higher levels of temperature stress, particularly heat, than those in rural areas.

“This research is a stark reminder of the number of lives that we are putting at risk if we fail to act quickly enough against climate change,” says Dr Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at Wellcome, said.

“And the predicted tripling of direct heat deaths is not even the full picture. Extreme heat kills but it also causes serious health harms. It has been linked to an increased risk of miscarriages and poorer mental health outcomes – both areas that urgently need more research.”

The study’s authors say Europe needs stronger policies to limit global warming and protect vulnerable regions and populations.

While the entire world is rapidly warming, Europe is the fastest-warming continent.

While the global mean near-surface temperature between 2013 and 2022 was 1.13 to 1.17C warmer than the pre-industrial level, making it the warmest decade on record, European land temperature increased by 2.04 to 2.10C.

The year 2023 was the hottest on record. In fact, research estimating past temperatures before the records began found that it was the hottest in the northern hemisphere over the past 2,000 years.

Last year’s extreme temperatures continued until the middle of this year, with July breaking the record streak with a slight drop in mercury.

Scientists from the European climate change agency Copernicus said the continent saw a record number of days with “extreme heat stress” when temperatures felt hotter than 45C due to humidity even if mercury was lower”.