Hopes of trillion dollar climate fund dim at Cop29 after developed countries fail to offer commitment

Campaigners fear the Baku summit may fail to establish a trillion dollar goal calling finance talk a ‘credibility test’ for UN talks

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate finance at the Cop29 UN climate summit (Sergei Grits/AP) (AP)

Hopes for an agreement on the climate finance goal were dealt a blow on Thursday after the latest draft text at the Cop29 summit in Baku failed to include a clear funding target.

With less than 48 hours to go before the end of the summit, the draft version of the deal contains no indication of the amount of funding that developed countries are willing to commit under the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG).

This goal is critical to addressing the global climate crisis, as it aims to provide resources to developing countries for adapting to climate impacts, transitioning to clean energy, and recovering from climate-related loss and damage.

Developing nations have consistently called for at least $1 trillion annually, predominantly in grants, to meet their climate needs. Developed nations have not put forward a figure.

At a press conference on Wednesday, ministers from Africa said their only expectation from the draft was to see a figure.

However, the text failed to indicate even a placeholder figure for the finance target, or any acknowledgement of the trillion-dollar figure demanded by developing nations.

“Cop29 was supposed to be the finance COP. Rich countries had one job to do: lay out how much finance they are going to provide, but there’s no actual numbers in the latest text,” Christian Aid’s Global Advocacy Lead, Mariana Paoli, said.

“It’s like developed countries are saying the dog ate their homework.”

Activists demonstrate for climate finance at the Cop29 UN Climate Summit (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool) (AP)

The absence of a clear commitment has alarmed negotiators and civil society groups alike, highlighting the deadlock that has persisted throughout the COP. Some fear that failure to establish a credible goal could undermine trust in the multilateral process and jeopardise future climate action.

“I have rarely seen a plenary room so sharply divided with just 36 hours remaining until the close of a climate summit,” Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, told The Independent. “The linchpin for progress at Cop29 lies in a credible financial commitment from wealthy nations.”

The text also failed to address some of the finer details of the new funding mechanism. While it calls for prioritising grants instead of loans, a key demand from developing countries to make the fund accessible, it missed many sub-goals, says Harjeet Singh, global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate justice at the Cop29 Climate Summit (AP)

“We must focus not only on the vast sums required—trillions, as acknowledged—but on ensuring these funds are provided as grants, not loans, to shield nations most impacted by climate change from further financial burdens,” he said.

“Alarmingly, the text lacks clear financial sub-goals for mitigation, adaptation, and addressing loss and damage—areas where needs have skyrocketed while resources remain scarce. True support for a just transition away from fossil fuels must include robust public finance, not hollow words.”

The stakes are particularly high for small island nations like the Marshall Islands, where rising sea levels threaten the very existence of communities.

“Every year we make the long journey to COP because it is where we are able to advocate for the 1.5 world that keeps my people above water,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands.

Members of various Indigenous communities pose for a photo while attending the Cop29 Climate Summit in Baku, Azerbaijan (AP)

“That world is hanging by a thread, and what I’m confronted with here is a text that neither secures 1.5 nor gives me the finance I need to live in the 2.7 world we are all hurtling toward.”

“We have heard clearly in this room that this text is completely disconnected from real lives. As has been said: We cannot play geopolitics with the lives of our citizens.”

The summit is scheduled to end on Friday, leaving a narrow window for compromise. Negotiators are under pressure to bridge the deep divide between developed and developing countries, a gulf that has characterised years of financial negotiations under the UN climate framework.

Campaigners have warned that leaders risk leaving Baku without a meaningful agreement.

“The last thing negotiators want is something that slides in at the last minute with a brand-new number that hasn’t had the chance to be properly socialised,” Christopher Wright, climate strategy advisor at Ember, told The Independent.

“At this stage, the text should have taken risks and started narrowing down options. This hesitancy to make decisions will only increase the tension in the final hours.”

With ministers set to meet again on Friday morning, the pressure is mounting to resolve the deadlock, especially on the richer countries. Campaigners from UK say this is a chance to show true climate leadership.

“If the UK government wants to be a leader on climate action, they now have little more than 24 hours to prove it. They must urgently push for a global finance goal of over £1 trillion in public finance to be largely provided in grants,” Chiara Liguori, Oxfam GB’s senior climate justice policy advisor said.

“The next few days are a credibility test for these climate negotiations and for COP itself. The time for stalling is over. If rich countries, including the UK, don’t deliver, they will go down in history as having chosen profit over people and complacency over courage.”

If you have a question about Cop29, you can submit it here, or join live on 23 November at 8am for our “Ask Me Anything” event.