What UK’s climate leadership could look like at Cop29

Analysis: To fill the vaccum of climate leadership at Cop29, the UK needs to take on one of the thorniest issues in UN negotiations

Keir Starmer arrived at Cop29 aiming to fill the leadership gap at the UN climate summit with an ambitious emissions reduction target. But campaigners say the real test for the UK’s climate leadership still lies ahead – especially in its support for climate finance.

Arriving at Baku on Tuesday morning, the prime minister told reporters there’s global race for clean energy and he wants UK to “to win the race”.

“We’re building on our reputation as a climate leader,” Sir Keir said at a press conference.

His presence at the 29th UN climate talks, also known as Cop29, was a much welcomed one. The summit’s start has been overshadowed by the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

On top of it, a number of heads of states, from Germany to Canada, have snubbed this year’s conference. Almost 100 leaders landed in Baku out of over 200 countries participating, and only two from G7, for a conference where the role of rich countries is more important than ever.

So naturally, all eyes were on the UK when Sir Keir arrived with a big promise of climate leadership. At the leader’s address, he announced that the UK will aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 81 per cent on 1990 levels by 2035, raising the ambition from the previous 78 per cent reduction target set in 2021.

The new target is in line with the recommendation made by the government’s official advisers, the Climate Change Committee. The previous Tory government committed under Boris Johnson in 2021 to curb such emissions by 78 per cent over the same period compared to 1990.

Thousands of campaigners, scientists and reporters gathered in Baku were waiting for a major pledge like this. So his announcement was immediately met with a wave of appreciation.

Nick Mabey, co-chief executive of the climate think tank E3G, said the UK is “stepping up as a climate frontrunner at a time when such leadership is critically needed.”

But while the target added momentum to Cop29, campaigners say that this summit is about more than just emissions reductions. A significant focus this year is on climate finance – a crucial aspect of the Paris Agreement, under which wealthier nations are expected to provide funds to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis.

And that is where the real test for the UK’s climate leadership lies, experts say. Finance is the thorniest issue in climate negotiations. Rich countries have constantly been at odds with developing countries over every aspect of the finance negotiations, from how much money is needed, to how it is supposed to be paid and in what timeframe.

Campaigners say, for true leadership in climate, the UK needs “to be bold in the negotiations” and support the new goal in the trillions.

“We’d want the UK to kind of take the lead in pushing for that, that more ambitious goal that’s much needed for front line communities,” Zahra Hdidou from Action Aid UK told The Independent in Baku.

The focus of Cop29 is the New Collective Quantified Goal on Finance (NCQG), intended to replace the previous $100bn (£80 bn) annual target and meet the world’s estimated need for over a trillion dollars to stay on track for the 1.5C limit.

The state of negotiations in Baku isn’t very different from what has been seen on finance so far. An early draft released on Wednesday laid bare the deep divisions: the text is filled with numerous brackets and options, each reflecting different countries’ positions.

Dr Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said that the voluminous NCQG text “reveals that various parties are still holding firm to their initial positions.”

She says that much work remains to achieve consensus on key issues, including “the quantum, quality, and timelines of climate finance.”

But so far, on finance, the UK’s position is no different from other rich countries. It has only pledged to continue honour an earlier $11.6bn (£9bn) pledge. No announcements were made for the loss and damage fund set up last year and the state of negotiations for the new fund continues to remain in shambles.

“After 14 meetings over three years, we’re still at a standstill,” Harjeet Singh, global communications director at Fossil Fuels non proliferation treaty, told The Independent.

“So it is going to be extremely challenging now, with less than 10 days left, how are we going to decide on a new climate finance goal?”

Singh added that the challenge isn’t technical but political. “This is a lack of political will… developed countries are negotiating in bad faith.”

So far the only number - 1 trillion - has been put forward by developing countries. Developed countries have been silent on how much money needs to be raised.

Campaigners argue that for the UK to genuinely lead on climate, it must push for a “fair share” of climate finance, supporting a finance goal that meets the needs of frontline communities. Fair share is measured by the country’s share of responsibility in greenhouse gas emissions. Around a quarter of emissions are from the US, the other quarter from Europe.

Analysis shows the UK’s share of cumulative historical emissions is three per cent of the global total, including CO2 from fossil fuels, cement, land use, land use change and forestry. But including the UK’s role in colonial era emissions, this share jumps to 5.1 per cent, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief.

If the UK decides to pay their share for the 1 trillion dollar fund, it will set an example for others, campaigners say.

The UK needs take a bigger step forward,” Hdidou added, “given the current context that we’re in. The UK should be paying their fair share.”

A clear support for the trillion dolar fund could be another way to assume climate leadership.

“True leadership also means acknowledging historical responsibility and moving beyond viewing this solely as an investment opportunity,” Singh said.

“Developing countries have been far more bold and specific, saying they need at least a trillion dollars,” he added. “Developed countries, however, are stalling.. they haven’t yet put forward a number.”

Campaigners say without an effective funding mechanism, most of the climate targets will remain unfulfilled. The summit comes after a year of multiple billion dollar disasters around the world and as UN report said, 2024 is almost certain to be the hottest on record.