Will no-deal Brexit cause food shortages in UK supermarkets?

Analysis: Food retailers have warned that some goods, such as fresh fruits and vegetables, will be in short supply if we leave with EU without a deal. Ben Chapman considers the potential impact

Will tomatoes be rationed? (PA)

Of all the Brexit warnings coming from British businesses the one issued this week by food retailers was among the most alarming.

Several of the industry’s biggest firms, including Sainsbury’s, Asda, Co-op, Waitrose and Lidl, said it is likely that a host of everyday products will begin disappearing from shelves if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal.

What did they say?

Border checks and tariffs will push up prices; there will be severe disruption to food supplies; and supermarkets can only mitigate this by stockpiling to a limited extent, because warehouses are full and fresh food would simply perish anyway.

The supermarkets concluded: “Government data suggest freight trade between Calais and Dover may reduce by 87 per cent against current levels as a result. For consumers, this will reduce the availability and shelf life of many products in our stores.”

So will it be these words that prove to be empty in two months’ time, or British supermarket shelves?

Food shortages

We aren’t about to completely run out of food; there is no need to massively stock up on tinned goods and head for the Anderson shelter. Still, it would be foolish not to listen to the concerns of a group of companies that between them sell about half the nation’s groceries.

Their warning is backed up by evidence from several sources. Government figures show the UK produces 48.7 per cent of the food it eats and the proportion has been steadily declining. The rest is imported, with about two thirds of that coming from the EU.

Additional border checks on thousands of containers of food each year could mean significant delays which are a particular problem for fresh fruit and vegetables (the very items we are most dependent on imports for, 84 per cent of our fruit and 48 per cent of our vegetables not being homegrown).

Eventually, supermarkets may be able to re-engineer their supply chains to restore the flow of fresh produce but many goods will undoubtedly be more expensive.

The impact of reduced supply

Rising prices of fruit and vegetables will lead to 12,400 additional cardiovascular deaths between 2021 and 2030, research published in the British Medical Journal this week estimated.

While some have argued that Brexit presents an opportunity to reduce our reliance on food imports and boost British farming, this cannot happen in the short term.

And even if domestic production were to be ramped up drastically, UK climate conditions will not be suitable for all crops. We could heat thousands of greenhouses of course, but that raises significant environmental questions.

There is a saying among optimists that when life give you lemons, you should make lemonade. But what if there are no lemons, only turnips by the bucketload?

Got an unanswered question about Brexit? Send it to editor@independent.co.uk and we’ll do our best to supply an answer in our Brexit Explained series