Brexit delay: Could Matteo Salvini prevent an extension by using Italy’s EU veto?

Analysis: There have been rumours of an Italian intervention to prevent Article 50 being extended. But what, asks Jon Stone, is the reality?

Italy has had its own disagreements with the EU in recent months (Reuters)

Could the EU veto an Article 50 extension?

Theresa May will go to Brussels on Thursday to ask EU leaders for an Article 50 extension. This would have happened irrespective of John Bercow's dramatic intervention in parliament to start the week.

There has been some speculation that the EU could decide not to permit an extension, either collectively or because some members are not keen.

Do individual EU leaders have the power to veto Britain's request for more time?

Yes – because any extension has to be unanimously agreed by all 27 other EU member states, any one of them dissenting could block it. It has been suggested that Italy might be tempted to pull rank.

Could populists like Italy’s Matteo Salvini or Poland’s Law and Justice party block an extension?

Some Brexiteers – who don’t want Brexit to be delayed – have asked sympathetic EU leaders to prevent the Article 50 period from being extended.

In January, Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski formally asked the Polish government to block any delay. This doesn’t appear to have been taken seriously by Poland and no response has been given.

More recently, this month leading Brexiteers Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore visited Italy. Shortly after, Mr Wigmore said it was “time for Matteo Salvini to help us and veto an extension”.

This led some Remain campaigners to suggest there was a plot afoot to block a delay. Mr Salvini – who is notably Italy’s interior minister, not its prime minister, and so has no personal vote – has had his own battles with Brussels and is suspected to be sympathetic.

A far more likely reason for a blockage would be if EU leaders collectively decided it was against the bloc’s interest. They might see value in giving Britain a deadline to concentrate minds

German MEP Elmar Brok has been quoted over the weekend as suggesting there might be something in this notion. However, there is no evidence so far that the Italians will actually block anything.

Notably, many Brexiteers themselves don’t appear to believe it will happen.

“They won't, there's no hope of us getting a veto, they're not going to spend their political capital in the EU on a country that is about to Leave,” Tory MP Jacob Rees Mogg said on LBC radio on Monday.

Does anyone else have cause to veto an extension?

A far more likely reason for a blockage would be if EU leaders collectively decided it was against the bloc’s interest. They might see value in giving Britain a deadline to concentrate minds.

Emmanuel Macron has said any extension would have to have a “clear objective” and be based on “a new choice” by the British.

Michel Barnier summarised their position last week: “Why would we extend these discussions? The discussion on Article 50, that is done and dusted. We have the withdrawal agreement, it is there. That is the question asked and we are waiting for the answer to that.”

But really, nobody can be certain what will happen until late on Thursday.

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