South Korea’s fertility rate set to rise for first time in nine years
Birthrate in South Korea has been steadily declining since 2015, falling below one child per woman in 2018
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Your support makes all the difference.The projected fertility rate of South Korea is set to rise in 2024, marking the first increase in nearly a decade in a country grappling with an ageing society and low birth rates.
“Recently, marriage rates have increased for five consecutive months and the number of births has risen for two consecutive months,” Dr Joo Hyung-hwan, vice-chairman of the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy, said during a keynote speech at the Global Symposium on Low Fertility and Ageing.
The event, held on 26 November in Seoul, was co-organised by Statistics Korea and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), reported the Korea Herald.
“These signs suggest the declining fertility rate may finally be reversing. If this trend continues, this year’s total fertility rate is projected to be 0.74, which would mark a rebound,” he said.
South Korea’s total fertility rate – the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime – has been steadily declining since 2015. It fell below one child per woman for the first time in 2018, hitting 0.98, and dropped further to a historic low of 0.72 in 2023.
This figure is among the lowest globally and significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, the threshold required to sustain a population without relying on immigration.
Experts warn that without sustained progress, South Korea’s population could shrink by half by 2100, exacerbating existing social and economic challenges.
Earlier, the National Assembly Budget Office (NABO) also predicted a recovery in South Korea’s fertility rate in its report published on 11 October this year, holding it at 0.74 up from the year before.
Driven by the recent recovery in the number of births, the total fertility rate is projected to rise by 0.2 children per woman this year, and continue to rise modestly through 2028, said the NABO in the report.
However, despite the increase in birth rate, the total population is expected to decline as the number of deaths will exceed the number of deaths, according to the office, reported the Korea Times.
The South Korean government has characterised the demographic crisis as a “national emergency” and has implemented various measures to address it, ranging from financial incentives for families to broader policies aimed at improving work-life balance and childcare support.
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