Uttar Pradesh elections: Indian state the size of UK polls in test of Modi’s popularity

Elections could prove if the BJP remains popular despite farmers’ protests and pandemic

India’s most populous state has kicked off a seven-phase election that is perceived to be a high-stakes popularity test for the country’s prime minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The election in Uttar Pradesh, a bellwether state, will serve a precursor to the national elections in 2024 when Mr Modi’s government will seek a third consecutive term.

The population of the state, home to over 166 million people, is spread across 95,000 square miles (246,000 sq km) and is as large as the United Kingdom.

Polling was held for 58 of the state assembly’s 403 seats in the western region of the state on Thursday.

Half the districts that come under these seats are part of what is known popularly as the country’s “sugarcane belt”.

The area was also at the centre of last year’s farmer protests against controversial farm laws that could have been responsible for the corporatisation of agriculture and were eventually rolled back by Mr Modi after nearly a year-long stir by farmers.

The rollback was seen by critics as being done to minimise blowback in the state election.

In 2017, a saffron sweep had propelled the party to power in the state and Hindu monk Yogi Adityanath was made the state’s chief minister.

In the last elections, the BJP had won 53 of the 58 seats going to the polls in this first phase, reported The Wire.

In 2022, however, the party is facing the prospect of several dramatic reversals in these seats because of farmers protesting the laws and demanding support prices for all crops and delayed agrarian payments, inflation and unemployment.

The Yogi Adityanath government is also facing scathing criticism for its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The criticism was prevalent particularly during last summer’s devastating second wave when dead bodies were seen floating on the river Ganga, considered to be the most sacred river of the Hindu majority, that runs across the length of the state.

Among the districts voting on Thursday are Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Baghpat, Meerut, Agra, Mathura, Noida, Bulandshahr and Ghaziabad.

While many of these areas had seen religious polarisation after communal riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013, which worked to the BJP’s advantage in 2017, the party now faces anti-incumbency in these areas on account of the farmer protests.

At an election rally on Thursday, Mr Modi thanked voters for coming out in large numbers in western UP and said the state will vote for those who keep it free from riots.

“People have decided to vote for those who develop Uttar Pradesh. Those who keep UP riots-free, those who keep our mothers and daughters free of fear, those who keep criminals in jail, people will vote for them. A whole parivaar-vaad (dynastic) party is making fake promises.”

“They had promised electricity but kept UP in the dark all throughout,” the prime minister said in an attack against the opposition, without acknowledging that his party has been in power since 2017.

The BJP is being challenged by former UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and his coalition partner Rashtriya Lok Dal led by Jayant Chaudhary, who is reported to have support in more than 30 seats.

In an interview to news agency ANI on the eve of polling, Mr Modi said their alliance will not affect the BJP’s prospects.

He said it was a “game of two boys we have seen before”.

“They (UP) accepted us in 2014, 2017 and 2019. They’ll accept us in 2022 after seeing our work,” he said.

The state election is also crucial for the Congress, which had won successive elections in India for decades before the BJP’s ascent to power after national elections in 2014.

The party’s fight in the state is being led by former party president Rahul Gandhi’s sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

Former chief minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which enjoys a large support base among the state’s Dalit population, is also in the fray.

“If the BJP loses, especially in Uttar Pradesh, that will be a big setback,” Rahul Verma, a fellow at New Delhi-based think-tank Centre for Policy Research, told Reuters.

“But you can call this a semi-final. The game in 2024 will be very, very different.”

Along with Uttar Pradesh, polling is also going to kick off in four other states, including Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur.

The results for all five states will be declared by the country’s Election Commission on 10 March.