Emmy Awards 2018: Who will win, who should win

Here’s who deserves to win this year’s key categories – and who probably will

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The Emmys are usually one of the more predictable stops on the awards season tour. Not so in 2018. Veep‘s fallow year gives other comedies a chance to shine, while Game of Thrones threatens to put the direwolf among the pigeons in several categories – the opulent HBO fantasy makes its return after being forced to sit out the awards in 2017 when a delayed release caused it to miss the cut-off date for entries .

Elsewhere, The Americans might finally have a shot at Emmy glory on Sunday night, while Atlanta could be recognised for more than just its acting this time around.

Hosted by Saturday Night Live comedians Michael Che and Colin Jost, the 70th Primetime Emmy Awards will be held on 17 September at the Microsoft Theatre in Downtown Los Angeles, California. Here’s who deserves to win this year’s key categories – and who probably will.

Outstanding Drama Series

Nominees:

The Americans (FX)

The Crown (Netflix)

Game of Thrones (HBO)

The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Stranger Things (Netflix)

This Is Us (NBC)

Westworld (HBO)

Will win: The Handmaid’s Tale

Should win: The Americans

It’s set to be the tightest race in years for the night’s biggest award. Last year’s winner The Handmaid’s Tale is the frontrunner, and deservedly so given that its second season maintained the quality of the first despite venturing beyond Margaret Atwood’s source material. That said, the season finale’s climax was a let-down for many, and Game of Thrones is looming large.

Given the breath-snatching, never-before-seen-on-television scale of its seventh season, I wouldn’t be surprised if GoT won the award, and the show was a big winner at the Creative Emmys (which honours more technical aspects of production) earlier this month.

The underdog and perhaps most deserving winner, however, is The Americans, FX’s spy thriller that has been consistently overlooked by the Academy. Not only was its latest batch of episodes declared its best by critics, it represents the last opportunity for it to land an Emmy as the sixth season was also the final one.

Outstanding Limited Series

The Alienist (TNT)

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)

Genius: Picasso (National Geographic)

Godless (Netflix)

Patrick Melrose (Showtime/Sky)

Will win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Should win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

After winning big with The People v. OJ Simpson, American Crime Story again has this category sewn up following another compelling season from showrunner and television powerhouse Ryan Murphy. In choosing a less familiar story this time, the Glee creator was able to have more fun with characterisation and show a side of gay life we don’t normally see on screen.

Godless, the languorous yet potent Netflix western starring Brits Michelle Dockery and Jack O’Connell, and the unflinching drug addiction drama Patrick Melrose would be fine winners of the Limited Series award too, but their chances are fairly remote. Look out for Patrick Melrose in the Limited Series Lead Actor category, where Benedict Cumberbatch has a decent shot at winning.

Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series

Keri Russell (The Americans)

Claire Foy (The Crown)

Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Sandra Oh (Killing Eve)

Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)

Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld)

Will win: Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Should win: Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Moss may have collected this prize last year, but it would be hard to over-honour her complex work in The Handmaid’s Tale. It’s all in the eyes. June/Offred’s emotions really ran the gamut in season two, and Moss conveyed them perfectly despite her largely imprisoned character often not being in a position to alter her expression, let alone utter words. However, Sandra Oh, Claire Foy and Evan Rachel Wood all have good chances as well, especially Foy who was exceptional as the Queen in The Crown but has now been succeeded by Olivia Colman for future seasons.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Matthew Rhys (The Americans)

Jason Bateman (Ozark)

Sterling K Brown (This Is Us)

Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)

Ed Harris (Westworld)

Jeffrey Wright (Westworld)

Will win: Sterling K Brown (This Is Us)

Should win: Matthew Rhys

There are frankly no landmark performances in this year’s lead actor race, which is the least exciting of the Emmy’s main categories at the 70th ceremony. Last year’s victor Sterling K Brown is the favourite, the Academy clearly unable to resist This Is Us‘s heartstring-tugging scenes, for which Brown is often at the centre. An outside bet would be Matthew Rhys, however: he played a pivotal part in The Americans‘ intense denouement. I only hope Westworld stays out of proceedings. Vastly overpraised, the convoluted HBO show does deserve to be in the running for a host of technical awards, but its acting leaves a lot to be desired – why it gets a double nomination here is a mystery.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Atlanta (FX)

Barry (HBO)

black-ish (ABC)

Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

GLOW (Netflix)

The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (Amazon Prime)

Will win: The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Should win: Atlanta

Veep has had this category in a stranglehold for three years running, but its absence in 2018 will most likely be The Marvelous Mrs Maisel‘s gain. The dramedy about a 1950s housewife who discovers she has a talent for stand-up comedy is popular in Hollywood circles, and landed the comedy and lead actress (for Rachel Brosnahan)

Golden Globes last year. Atlanta deserves the prize, really – just as it did at 2017’s ceremony – Donald Glover’s idiosyncratic show being the most fresh and original on primetime TV right now. Its second season was even more experimental than the first, though, and I fear it may prove simply too weird to win the popular vote. Barry, about a reluctant assassin who would really rather be an actor , was a really strong debut for HBO and has already established quite the online following, but its limited scope and ambition makes it a minnow in this company.

Pamela Adlon (Better Things)

Tracee Ellis Ross (black-ish)

Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie)

Issa Rae (Insecure)

Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs Maisel)

Allison Janney (Mom)

Will win: Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs Maisel)

Should win: Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs Maisel)

This is probably the most certain of the key awards at this year’s ceremony. Brosnahan’s move from drama to comedy with TMMM has been seamless, and she already won a Golden Globe for her warm portrayal of Miriam “Midge” Maisel. Perhaps Allison Janney – who recently won Oscar for I, Tonya – can topple her raw performance in Mom. This series tells the story of an estranged mother and daughter who try and reclaim their lives through Alcoholics Anonymous meetings, the show probing some tricky topics all filmed in front of a live studio audience. Issa Rae is also a strong outsider thanks to her wry turn in the hugely popular show Insecure, which has carved out screen time for the black female experience and been applauded for it.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Donald Glover (Atlanta)

Bill Hader (Barry)

Anthony Anderson (black-ish)

Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

Ted Danson (The Good Place)

William H Macy (Shameless)

Will win: Donald Glover

Should win: Donald Glover

Glover is perhaps not quite as deserving as last year; remember we’re looking only at his acting here and not his writing/direction/showrunning. Glover’s character Earn was used much more sparingly in Atlanta‘s second season, to the point where he was completely absent from several episodes.

That said, he remained the show’s proxy, the neutral observer who all the other more extreme characters bounce off. A modern-day Nick Carraway. Earn aside, remember he also donned all those prosthetics to play Teddy Perkins, the season’s Michael Jackson-esque, surgically enhanced recluse, who was one of the most chilling TV villains in recent memory.

The ceremony will be broadcast live on NBC in the US, with Sky One showing it on Tuesday night at 10pm in the UK