Succession finale theories: Our biggest predictions for the final episode

Which Roy sib will come out on top? What’s Matsson really up to? And are Shiv and Tom meant to be? We’ve been speculating on what might happen in the last ever episode of Jesse Armstrong’s vicious satire…

The players fighting for power in ‘Succession’ (HBO/Getty)

An extraordinary finale can elevate a good show to true greatness. Think of The Sopranos cutting to black. Walter White’s last stand. Tim and Dawn finally snogging. The question is: will Succession sign off with the level of quality we have come to expect from four seasons of top-tier acting, writing and masterly drama? Might it, in fact, exceed that level?

Next week, Jesse Armstrong’s acclaimed, award-winning and addictive HBO series about terribly rich people doing terrible things is coming to an end – and we’re still no closer to knowing who will come out on top. The show sprang a surprise in an early episode, killing off Logan Roy and leaving a leadership vacuum that was suddenly real rather than abstract. Since then, Kendall and Roman have tried various wily ways to kill off Matsson’s deal, Shiv and Tom have gone full Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, and Tom and Greg have anointed a right-wing extremist as president – democracy be damned.

The penultimate episode, taking place at Logan’s funeral amid a backdrop of election-inspired civic unrest, has set the stage for chaos in the last ever, 90-minute episode. But will Kendall step into his father’s shoes? Will the “disgusting brothers” win the day? Or will Shiv and Tom’s baby become the CEO? Here’s what we think might happen...

Roman implodes

One thing was very clear by the end of Succession’s penultimate episode: Roman has lost it. Having flopped the big eulogy at Logan’s funeral, we last saw him being pummelled into the tarmac by a mob of angry protestors, as everyone laughed at a viral video of his high-pitched weeping. There’s always been something a little bit manic about him, played with an exquisite mix of petulance and giddiness by Kieran Culkin, but it was clear that the stark reality of his dad’s death was sending him over the edge when he kept making jokes about having sex with various relatives. By the end of the day, he was broken, setting the stage – surely – for his full implosion in the finale.

We’ve long known he has a reckless side – accidentally sending your dad a dick pic, telling a child you’ll give them a million dollars if they hit a home run – but, mingled with his own grief and confusion, his self-destruction could see his siblings catch shrapnel too. Let’s not forget that Roman also knows Kendall’s darkest secret – his brother’s part in the death of the waiter at Shiv’s wedding – and could fatally wound his future at Waystar with the kind of sneaky leak Kendall has so far shrewdly executed. Or perhaps he could destroy his brother more literally. Logan always referred to Roman as “Romulus”, and in ancient mythology, Romulus kills his brother Remus and goes on to build the city of Rome. Could it be that Roman, in a moment of shamed, uncontrolled spite, kills Kendall? Remember what he said: “I am the man.” Jessie Thompson, arts editor

A match made in hell

Without going into too much traumatic detail about whether Shiv and Tom will strike gold at the Caribbean edition of the “orgasm Olympics”, I am predicting that these two crazy kids will end up together, in a relentless, sadistic cycle of love(ish) and hate.

Tom has seen Shiv at her worst, has felt the sting of her scorpion tail, and yet he still wants her. He knows how cruel she can be – making jokes at his expense at parties, needling at his insecurities – and it doesn’t seem to deter him. Screwed up as it may be, his coming back for more and more seems to show that his love for her is unconditional.

Ken and Shiv at their father’s funeral in ‘Succession’ (HBO/Sky)

And despite Tom Wambsgans being, well, Tom Wambsgans, Shiv cannot help but want him too. You can tell she does by the way her face flinches when the harshness of his words hits her. She might have told him, “I don’t like you. I don’t even care about you,” on the balcony, but it wasn’t true – at least not that last bit. And while it seemed like the pair had reached the point of no return when he questioned whether she was truly pregnant, they began to edge closer to each other’s wretched flames in episode nine, with Shiv almost moved to tears by Tom’s vulnerability. Can you really blame her for reaching back out to him with brothers and a mother like she has?

My bet is that Tom and Shiv will be together, they’ll be dreadful parents and, boy, will they be miserable – but at least they’ll be rich. Ellie Harrison, TV editor

Ken wins – but at what cost?

Ruthlessness. Cunning. Drive. Ken has what it takes to be king.

While Kendall’s younger bro Roman has shown his teeth this series, his funeral breakdown has pretty much ruled him out of the running to replace his father as Waystar Royco’s head honcho. There is technically enough time left for a late swerve here, but I think the show is too smart for that – especially after Armstrong has invested so much in portraying Kendall as Logan’s best successor.

Kendall has begun to morph into Logan. In episode eight, he tearfully told his sister Shiv, “Maybe the poison drips through,” fearing that he was absorbing the worst parts of his father; in episode nine, he embraced those qualities, claiming at Logan’s funeral that he hoped he had some of his dad’s “awful force” in him. That trait was on display when Kendall later hit out at Roman for his emotional collapse in the church. “You f***ed it,” he told him. “It’s OK, it happens, but you f***ed it.”

We’d already seen Kendall start to become the “killer” that his father believed he could not be, as evidenced by his blackmail of Hugo earlier in the season, and he has been acting increasingly decisively. He even seems to have Colin, his father’s former bodyguard, on side, and achieved as much with some more blackmail – ridiculing Colin over getting therapy, and subtly threatening to use that information against him.

Jeremy Strong has compared Kendall to The Godfather’s Michael Corleone many times. Could he, like the mafioso, succeed his father after gradually (and at times reluctantly) forging the ideal, merciless personality for the role, as his siblings fall by the wayside? The parallels to Richard III are also clear – it’s possible that Kendall will, like Shakespeare’s sly and manipulative anti-hero, end up getting what he wants... but losing everyone he loves in the process. Alex Pattle, combat sports correspondent

Greg gets egged

For four seasons, Gregory “Greg the egg” Hirsch has stuck to the hull of the Roy family like a limpet. While he may have started out as the most relatable member of the clan, Nicholas Braun’s deceptively gauche f***boy has gradually sunk to greater and greater depths of conniving awfulness. This being Succession, of course, characters are seldom allowed to escape from any situation with their hubris unpunctured; vaulting ambition always ends in a stumble. As such, it feels like some proper, humiliating comeuppance for Greggie is long overdue.

‘Disgusting brothers’ Nicholas Braun and Matthew Macfadyen in ‘Succession’ (HBO/Sky)

While this season has seen Cousin Greg shamelessly attempt to cosy up to Matsson, Kendall, president-elect Mencken – anyone who’ll bear him, really – it’s clear by this point that no one really likes or respects him. Back in season two, Greg opted to stick with Logan “Uncle Fun” Roy over his more ethically minded grandfather Ewan (“Grandpa Grumps”), a decision that seemingly cost him hundreds of millions of dollars in inheritance. There would be a fitting sweetness if Greg truly ended up a nobody, with the Roy sibs still blaming him for siding with Logan at the end of season three. Or, to put it another way, the end may be nigh for everyone’s favourite little “Machiavellian f***”. Louis Chilton, culture reporter

Matsson the messer

Let’s be honest, Matsson is fed up. At this point, everyone’s favourite Swede has lost faith in Waystar and the entire operation. Even his collusion with Shiv seems suspect: is she his red herring? His Trojan horse? And now he’s in with Mencken, whose Nazi politics are at loggerheads with Shiv’s, what’s to stop him from dropping her? With this in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matsson has been doing some dodgy deals behind the scenes to secure the future of the GoJo deal.

Perhaps he started putting feelers out after that confrontation with Roman in Norway: “You just drag us out here, you inhuman f***ing dog man,” Roman memorably yelled in Matsson’s face while on a hike. “You f***ing killed him, too. We’re not f***ing selling to you. It’s not happening. I f***ing hate you.” Matsson’s response? In cool, calm and slightly sociopathic billionaire fashion, he replied: “You just f***ed yourself.” And maybe he did. Because maybe that was the moment that Matsson called up Frank and Karl (neither of whom have exactly been kind or warm to any of the sibs since Logan’s death) and decided to wage a war on the remaining Roys.

Alexander Skarsgård as Lukas Matsson in ‘Succession' (HBO/Sky)

Perhaps it’s sibs out, Matsson in – possibly with the help of Greg, aka “the backwash at the bottom of the gene pool”, who has been waiting for someone else to enlist him as his trusty sidekick ever since Tom went all “don’t be a racist little b**** about it”. Could now be the time? Olivia Petter, lifestyle features writer

Tinfoil hats at the ready!

The events of the Succession finale hinge on one fateful question: whether or not the deal with GoJo will go thro(ugh). With new president Mencken’s commitment to Roman and Kendall wavering, the offer of an American CEO – as sneakily suggested by Shiv with her own career in mind – could clinch the deal. Still, I’m not sure this scenario will play out in her favour. Matsson, with his casual sexist comments and not-so-casual blood mailing, isn’t going to be named Feminist of the Year any time soon. He knows that Shiv’s pregnant and seems unlikely to let a woman, with her hormones and feelings, run his company.

So if not Shiv, which Yank could take charge at GoJo-WayStar? I’d like to think Tom wouldn’t betray Shiv again (especially now she’s carrying his offspring), but he’s repeatedly proven himself to be a man who will do anything for self-preservation. If Tom gets the top job from Matsson, there’s no way he’s not taking Greg with him. On paper, the self-proclaimed “disgusting brothers” failing upwards into the ultimate positions of power would make for a pretty bleak end to the show. And yet… it’s hard not to root for Tom and Greg, at least a little bit. Imagine the look on the sibs’ faces when they realise no Roy kids are in charge? Now that’d be glorious. Isobel Lewis, culture reporter

Shiv’s left out in the cold

Shiv’s collusion with Matsson will not end well – she seems destined for a painful and humiliating demise. Whether Ken and Roman scupper the GoJo deal or not, their sister’s calculated plot to side with Matsson looks doomed, despite her efforts to get Mencken on side.

The finale’s title, “With Eyes Wide Open”, could be a clue about Shiv’s fate. With a hint of a socially liberal philosophy, Shiv is the most “woke” sib. She knows what a Mencken-led America could look like, and what that could mean for her unborn child, and yet she has sacrificed her principles to cosy up to him. And Shiv, who shares her name with the word for a small knife, may have stabbed her two brothers in the back, but two other men may ultimately be responsible for her downfall.

Even if Matsson is genuinely fond of Shiv, their arrangement will all come crashing down when fascist provocateur Mencken’s misogynistic beliefs test and break the Swede’s loyalty towards her. It seems likely that the president-elect would block a pregnant woman from taking up the role of American CEO. After being referred to as “Kinder, Küche, Kirche” (“Children, Kitchen, and Church”, from the sexist German expression taken during the German Empire) in episode nine, Shiv’s number is surely up. Jack Rathborn, sports editor

The ‘Succession’ finale airs in the UK at 2am on Monday 29 May on Sky Atlantic and will be available on NOW