Emmys 2023 predictions: Who will win and who should win

Louis Chilton looks at the runners and riders for this year’s long-delayed ceremony

It’s time for the 75th Emmys, with ‘The White Lotus’, ‘Succession’ and ‘The Bear’ dominating the nominations (AP)

Even at the best of times, TV awards ceremonies often feel like old news; this year, it’s almost ancient history. It’s been what seems like aeons since the Emmys last reared their heads, with the 2023 ceremony being pushed back by four months thanks to the now-resolved actors’ and writers’ strikes. Voting took place back in August, and encompasses series broadcast from 1 June 2022 until 31 May 2023.

Among the TV shows vying for awards glory on Monday evening (15 January) are media dynasty sensation Succession, post-apocalyptic drama The Last of Us and Bill Hader’s hitman dramedy Barry. Better Call Saul may have ended back in 2022, but the acclaimed Breaking Bad spin-off is also getting a final run at awards glory here.

Reality-scripted mashup Jury Duty also joins culinary hit The Bear, cloying football comedy Ted Lasso and school sitcom Abbott Elementary along the frontrunners. You can see the full nominations list here.

Also expected to be a major contender this year is season two of Mike White’s perfectly pitched satire The White Lotus, which, along with Succession, dominated the drama field at the previous Emmys back in 2022.

The 75th Primetime Creative Arts Emmys will be held at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California, and will be hosted by Anthony Anderson.

Here’s a breakdown of predictions for this year’s Emmy Awards, including who is expected to win in all the major categories (and who deserves to win instead).

Outstanding Drama Series

Andor

Better Call Saul

The Crown

House of the Dragon

The Last of Us

Succession

The White Lotus

Yellowjackets

Will win: Succession

Should win: Succession

Brian Cox in ‘Succession’, one of the best TV shows of any era (AP)

It’s a strong field this year in the drama category; Better Call Saul’s superb final season would be a worthy winner almost any normal year. The White Lotus also deserves credit, as do the really-much-better-than-they-had-any-right-to-be genre shows The Last of Us, House of the Dragon, and Andor. But this time, it’s got to go to Succession, which finished its run as not just the best TV show of its era, but one of the very best of any era.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary

Barry

The Bear

Jury Duty

The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Only Murders in the Building

Ted Lasso

Wednesday

Will win: The Bear

Should win: Jury Duty

The bookies have Ted Lasso as the favourite to take home this award, but I’m not sure I see it – Jason Sudeikis’s mawkish sitcom dropped off drastically in its final season, and it’s up against some far stronger and well-liked alternatives. Chief among these is The Bear, the brilliant restaurant dramedy starring Jeremy Allen White. The Bear is, however, furiously tense, and often light on the laughs, leading many to complain that the half-hour series should instead be competing in the drama category. Wouldn’t Jury Duty, the wonderfully original series about a man who doesn’t know he’s part of a televised mock courtroom, be a more appropriate choice? Maybe – and given Jury Duty’s logistically difficult premise, this might be the series’ only instalment.

Comedy hoax: Ronald Gladden and James Marsden in ‘Jury Duty' (Amazon Freevee)

Outstanding Limited Series

Beef

Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Daisy Jones & the Six

Fleishman Is in Trouble

Obi-Wan Kenobi

Will win: Beef

Should win: Fleishman is in Trouble

A distinctly weaker category than drama or comedy series, Limited Series is likely to go to Netflix’s escalating feud drama Beef, which was a sturdy hit with both critics and audiences. There’s probably more to love about Fleishman is in Trouble, however. The Jesse Eisenberg-fronted series is something of a slow burn, but picks up towards the back half, when Lizzy Caplan begins to steal the limelight.

Lizzy Caplan steals the limelight in ‘Fleishman Is in Trouble' (Hulu/Disney Plus)

Lead Actor in a Drama

Jeff Bridges – The Old Man

Brian Cox – Succession

Kieran Culkin – Succession

Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul

Pedro Pascal – The Last of Us

Jeremy Strong – Succession

Will win: Kieran Culkin

Should win: Bob Odenkirk

I would struggle to remember a stronger actors’ line-up than this. While the award is expected to go to one of the brilliant Succession male leads – likely Culkin, if the Golden Globes are any indication – there is a small but real possibility that the trio of contenders will cannabalise each others’ votes, paving the way for an outsider (Pascal or Odenkirk) to seize an unlikely win. I’m hoping against the odds that Odenkirk emerges with the trophy – his work across six seasons of Saul has been incredible, particularly so this final season.

Bob Odenkirk in the final season of ‘Better Call Saul' (Netflix)

Lead Actress in a Drama series

Sharon Horgan – Bad Sisters

Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets

Elisabeth Moss – The Handmaid’s Tale

Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us

Keri Russell – The Diplomat

Sarah Snook – Succession

Will win: Sarah Snook

Should win: Sarah Snook

About a Roy: Sarah Snook as Shiv Roy in the ‘Succession’ finale (HBO/Sky)

No contest here. The Australian actor’s turn as Succession’s venal Shiv Roy is top, top stuff. Ramsey is probably the strongest of her competitors – expect their name to be in much more serious contention when The Last of Us returns for season two – but there’s no universe in which this prize doesn’t go to Snook.

Lead Actor in a Comedy

Bill Hader – Barry

Jason Segel – Shrinking

Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building

Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso

Jeremy Allen White – The Bear

Will win: Jeremy Allen White

Should win: Bill Hader

Jeremy Allen White as the dry and intense Carmy in ‘The Bear’ (AP)

Again, my issue with White’s near-certain win here is more of an issue with the comedy/drama divide at the Emmys. Even within The Bear’s roster of characters, White’s character Carmy is particularly dry, intense and self-serious (though still funnier than late-era Ted Lasso). The man’s brilliant in it – but if we’re judging purely on the merits of a comedy qua comedy, there are more deserving nominees here. Hader gets my vote: throughout Barry, the former SNL star has showcased hidden depths as a dysfunctional, sometimes comically dense assassin-turned-thesp.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Christina Applegate – Dead to Me

Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary

Natasha Lyonne – Poker Face

Jenna Ortega – Wednesday

Will win: Quinta Brunson

Should win: Quinta Brunson

If Abbott Elementary’s multitalented writer-creator-star doesn’t walk away with this prize, it’ll be a major upset. She came close at the last ceremony, losing out to Hacks’s Jean Smart (while winning in the writing category). This year, Ortega’s Wednesday Addams was well received, and Lyonne was flawless in the stylish Columbo riff Poker Face, but it just feels like Brunson’s moment. If Ayo Edebiri had been nominated (rightfully) as a lead in The Bear, though? This might be a different story.

Writer-creator-star Quinta Brunson in ‘Abbott Elementary’ (AP)

Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Taron Egerton – Black Bird

Kumail Nanjiani – Welcome to Chippendales

Evan Peters – Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Daniel Radcliffe – Weird: The Al Yankovic Story

Michael Shannon – George & Tammy

Steven Yeun – Beef

Will win: Steven Yeun

Should win: Steven Yeun

A very fine actor who seems capable of nailing more or less any genre, Yeun should walk this category. His rivals here are all perfectly capable and well-liked performers, but none of these specific projects really caught on the way Beef did.

Steven Yeun in ‘Beef’, who seems capable of nailing all genres (ANDREW COOPER/NETFLIX)

Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Lizzy Caplan – Fleishman Is in Trouble

Jessica Chastain – George & Tammy

Dominique Fishback – Swarm

Kathryn Hahn – Tiny Beautiful Things

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six

Ali Wong, Beef

Will win: Ali Wong

Should win: Dominique Fishback

A very competitive category here will most likely see Wong emerging as the winner. She’s great in Beef, maybe even the stronger of the show’s two leads, and there’s a reason she took home a Golden Globe earlier this month. But I’d personally like to see the gong go to Fishback, former star of The Deuce, whose turn in Donald Glover’s punishingly grim satire Swarm is fantastic.

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

F Murray Abraham – The White Lotus

Nicholas Braun – Succession

Michael Imperioli – The White Lotus

Theo James – The White Lotus

Matthew Macfadyen – Succession

Alan Ruck – Succession

Will Sharpe – The White Lotus

Alexander Skarsgård– Succession

Will win: Matthew Macfadyen

Should win: Matthew Macfadyen

Matthew Macfadyen as the weird and wonderful Tom Wambsgans in ‘Succession’ (AP)

It’s almost ridiculous to have a category so totally dominated by two TV series. (Personally I think Better Call Saul’s Tony Dalton has been snubbed.) Macfadyen will probably win, having been given the weightiest scenes (that balcony argument with Shiv is an all-timer), but these are eight stellar performances, especially those on the Succession side.

Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus

Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown

Meghann Fahy – The White Lotus

Sabrina Impacciatore – The White Lotus

Aubrey Plaza – The White Lotus

Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul

J Smith-Cameron – Succession

Simona Tabasco – The White Lotus

Will win: Jennifer Coolidge

Should win: Rhea Seehorn

Look, everybody loves Coolidge. The 62-year-old actor is experiencing a career renaissance thanks to The White Lotus, and there’s no faulting her performance in it. But Seehorn has been a revelation as Better Call Saul’s steely, conflicted lawyer Kim Wexler. It’s a unique character, a unique performance, and Seehorn deserves the world for it.

Jennifer Coolidge is experiecing a career renaissance thanks to ‘The White Lotus’ (HBO)

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Carrigan – Barry

Phil Dunster – Ted Lasso

Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso

James Marsden – Jury Duty

Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear

Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary

Henry Winkler – Barry

Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Ayo Edebiri in ‘The Bear’ (FX)

Another stacked category, with Winkler, Marsden and Carrigan all well deserving of a mention. But it’s Moss-Bachrach, who plays The Bear’s diamond in the rough Richie, who will probably come out on top. If this year is to be a Bear sweep, then no one’s taking this off him.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Ayo Edebiri – The Bear

Janelle James – Abbott Elementary

Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary

Juno Temple – Ted Lasso

Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso

Jessica Williams – Shrinking

Will win: Ayo Edebiri

Should win: Ayo Edebiri

Edebiri and White holding aloft their Golden Globes earlier this month (AFP via Getty Images)

Edebiri had an absolutely monumental 2023, starring in Bottoms, Theater Camp, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson, Black Mirror, and Abbott Elementary, and several other films and TV shows. But it’s for her role in The Bear as anxious sous-chef Sydney Adamu that the prolific young comedian is best known. She’s brilliant in it, and the clear winner here.