Avengers Infinity War: the box office records the MCU blockbuster is looking to smash

Could the blockbuster make more than Star Wars: The Force Awakens?

With Avengers: Infinity War now in cinemas, analysts are going loopy attempting to predict how well the blockbuster will fair at the box office.

Marvel Studios are reportedly being cautious, hoping for upwards of $210 million over the weekend in the United States. However, most analysts are predicting at least $230 million from Infinity War over the next few days, perhaps more – Deadline are reporting a $45 million opening day in the States, which ties with Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($45 million) and falls behind The Force Awakens ($57 million).

Fellow Disney production The Force Awakens currently holds the highest US opening weekend, taking $248 million (unadjusted for inflation). The JJ Abrams flick benefited from huge amounts of excitement as beloved characters Luke, Leia, and Han Solo were returning for the first time in over 30 years.

Should Infinity War – which brings together Iron Man, Captain America, the Guardians of the Galaxy, Doctor Strange, etc – overtake The Force Awakens, few people will be surprised but that’s still one huge mountain to climb. The seventh Star Wars instalment went on to gross $936 million domestically alone, a figure few believe the third Avengers will overtake.

Infinity War has a greater chance at taking home the best opening weekend for a superhero movie ever. Unadjusted (and adjusted) for inflation, the first Avengers holds that crown. Released in 2012, the mammoth movie took home $207 million ($221 million adjusted), a figure Infinity War will no doubt defeat, benefiting from the six years of highly-rated Marvel movies that have come between them.

The Russo Brothers-directed movie will also overtake 2018’s current record holder: fellow Marvel blockbuster Black Panther, which managed $202 million over its opening weekend.

That’s enough about the United States – what about worldwide? The record holder for opening weekend globally is Fate of the Furious, the most recent Fast and Furious instalment, which managed $541.9 million. Only $98.8 million came from the US, with Infinity War tracking much stronger.

However, the latest Avengers may lose out as, unlike Fate of the Furious, it will not open in Russian or China, two of the world’s biggest markets for film. The Force Awakens played similarly and managed $529 over its first weekend (the second biggest ever), so perhaps something similar could happen here. Currently, the top opening for a Marvel movie is Avengers with $392.5 million worldwide, which Infinity War should easily overtake.

Having opened early in South Korea, France, Australia, New Zealand, and other key markets, Infinity War has already racked up $39 million, opening at number one in all markets. In South Korea, the movie has already had the biggest opening day of all time, coming second in Australia (only behind – you guessed it – Force Awakens). Those are promising numbers for Marvel and Disney.

Finally, there’s the overall box office takings. Slightly harder to predict, but Infinity War should phase out Avengers' $1.519 billion (!!!) and probably Jurassic World‘s $1.671 billion. Should Infinity War be capable of giving The Force Awakens ($2.06 billion) a run for its money remains to be seen. That could all come down to China, where The Force Awakens underperformed ($124.5 million) and Avengers: Age of Ultron made a signifiant dent ($240.1 million).

Despite being a newer franchise, Marvel already has a greater presence in China than Star Wars, both Ultron and Civil War ranking among the top 50 highest-grossing films of all time in China (and no Star Wars films coming close). One reason is due to the Chinese government not showing the original Star Wars movies in the country, and therefore the people not having the same nostalgia the rest of the world has.

Will Infinity War top the $2 billion mark? We'll have a better idea once the figures for opening weekend are in. But considering the fanfare around the "most ambitious crossover of all time", Marvel are undoubtedly onto a huge winner.

Infinity War is in cinemas now.