Golden Globes 2024: Who will win and who should win

Adam White has skimmed the major categories of the most chaotic ceremony in awards season to determine which films and TV shows will reign supreme

Winners or losers? Sarah Snook, Jeremy Allen White, Emma Stone and Margot Robbie are all in the frame for this year’s Golden Globes (HBO/Disney/Searchlight/Warner Bros/iStock)

For all the controversy that has plagued the Golden Globes in recent years, the ceremony remains the first major arbiter of where awards season is likely to go. It’s particularly important this year, as it feels even harder than usual to predict which films and TV shows are going to dominate over the coming months of Oscars, Emmys and Baftas.

Are we going to witness a season of Barbie wins? Oppenheimer? Will Maestro become the baffling victor that gets everyone enraged?

On the TV side of things, this was a year of big endings, with Succession, The Crown, Barry and The Marvelous Mrs Maisel all coming to a close. Succession should benefit the most, awards-wise. What might be interesting to observe, though, is the likely cratering of The Crown. For a show that was once so essential to cultural discourse, it seemed to end with a whimper in December, didn’t it? Might it do the same here?

The Globes screen in the US tonight (7 January), with comedian Jo Koy taking up hosting duties. In the meantime, here are our predictions for who will and who should win all the major categories.

Film

Best Motion Picture, Drama

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Will win/Should win Oppenheimer

For the most part this is a really strong category, but fundamentally it’s money that talks in Hollywood, and Oppenheimer made an absolute boat-load of it. Expect to see it rewarded at the Globes for not only being creatively brilliant, but also for basically printing cash last summer.

Bombs away: Robert Downey Jr in ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal Pictures)

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Air

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

May December

Poor Things

Will win A bit like the above, Barbie made so much money this year that it’s sort of unthinkable it won’t be awarded here for that alone. It’s also a very good movie in terms of craft, if a little clumsy as a comedy. That also pushes the film to the lower end of this category’s nominees, which makes its inevitable win feel a tad disappointing.

Should win Poor Things is a vision, and it’d be quietly radical for something so riotous to take home the prize. But then there’s The Holdovers, the complete antithesis of Poor Things – gentle, understated and almost painfully human – but gosh, what a film. A win for either would be worthy of celebration.

Best Motion Picture, Non-English Language

Anatomy of a Fall

Fallen Leaves

Io Capitano

Past Lives

Society of the Snow

The Zone of Interest

Will win/Should win Unless there’s a last-minute Past Lives upset, this will be a toss-up between Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, two critical hits both boasting equally remarkable performances from actor-of-the-year Sandra Huller. I give the edge to Anatomy of a Fall, though, just as it’s a mildly juicy courtroom thriller and a far easier watch than a brilliant but understandably gut-wrenching Holocaust film.

Going grey (and maybe gold): Hayao Miyazaki’s ‘The Boy and the Heron’ (Studio Ghibli)

Best Motion Picture, Animated

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros Movie

Suzume

Wish

Will win Across the Spider-Verse is very good, if half a movie – that infuriating cliffhanger ending! Its eye-popping visuals puts most of Hollywood to shame, though, and it will likely take home the trophy.

Should win It’s not Hayao Miyazaki’s best by any means, but the mystical fable The Boy and the Heron is a sterling return for a filmmaker who claimed a few years ago that he’d retired.

Best Director, Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Will win My tea leaves have clearly rotted, because I’m sensing a Bradley Cooper victory here. Maestro is technically impressive yet a narrative mess – Cooper’s a big movie star, though, and the Globes love nothing more than a big movie star. If a win here does materialise, it’ll be the biggest upset of the night.

Should win Speaking as somebody who for years was moderate on his work, the fact that I ran from my screening of Oppenheimer eager to get my Nolan fan-club card laminated is a very big deal. The movie’s brilliant, his work on it is brilliant – it’s also about time! Can you believe Nolan has never won a Globe?

Winning by a nose? Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan in ‘Maestro’ (Jason McDonald/Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Will win More of my tea leaves have rotted as I’m sensing yet another Bradley Cooper victory here. His performance in Maestro is far and away the most overtly “transformative” of this category – the wigs, the prosthetics, the ageing, the learning-how-to-conduct-an-orchestra stuff – and feels like Globes catnip.

Should win Or they could go for the more subtle approach and reward the simmering, chilling work of Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer. And who could honestly resist those devastated eyes?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Will win Despite spending a decent chunk of the film splayed out on a bed and deathly ill, Gladstone haunts every frame of Killers of the Flower Moon.

Should win Gladstone would be a fine choice, but have you seen Sandra Huller in Anatomy of a Fall? Performance of the year, frankly.

Did she do it?: Sandra Huller in ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ (Picturehouse Entertainment)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothee Chalamet, Wonka

Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Will win/Should win Save for Chalamet, who is wildly miscast in Wonka, this is a really nice selection of nominees, but it feels like the category is Giamatti’s for the taking. He’s effortlessly endearing yet cantankerous in The Holdovers, and pure pleasure to watch.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Alma Poysti, Fallen Leaves

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Will win This feels like Margot Robbie’s to lose, but it’s also sincerely untrue to say that she gives the best performance of the nominees here. She’s very good in Barbie! But let’s also not go nuts!

Should win Both Natalie Portman and Emma Stone really play in their respective movies, dangling perilously close to overdoing their performances but always colouring just inside the lines. They’re so exciting to watch, and a win for either would be a treat.

Evil incarnate: Robert de Niro in ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ (Apple TV+)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Will win No one has campaigned harder on the circuit this year than Ryan Gosling, who seems set to walk away with this category despite the rumblings of a few months ago that Robert Downey Jr would sweep over awards season. That’s gone a bit quiet, hasn’t it?

Should win Yes, it’s a bit dull to still praise Robert De Niro to the hilt, but his work in Killers of the Flower Moon is a stunning return to form: few actors in recent memory have played grotesque evil with quite such subtlety and menace.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Julianne Moore, May December

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Will win This is quite a tricky category to predict, with arguments to be made for practically everyone here. That said, the Globes are fans of Rosamund Pike (remember her shock Best Actress win for the speedily forgotten I Care a Lot a few years back?), and they’ll probably want to reward Saltburn somehow. Inexplicable, I agree.

Should win Playing a grieving mother in The Holdovers, Da’Vine Joy Randolph is heartbroken, defiant and nicely prickly all at once.

Christmas magic: Da’Vine Joy Randolph in ‘The Holdovers’ (Seacia Pavao)

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3

John Wick Chapter 4

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

The Super Mario Bros Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Will win/Should win First of all: haha. The introduction of a category expressly designed to reward movies for making a ton of money is one of the lamer decisions by the Globes in recent years. And there have been a lot of lame decisions! If we must choose a likely winner, expect it to be Taylor Swift’s tour movie. Should it win? Honestly, Swift’s omnipresence over the last few months has been slightly unbearable, so also giving her this incredibly silly trophy would be fitting – so go for it, Globes!

Television

Best Television Series, Drama

1923

The Crown

The Diplomat

The Last of Us

The Morning Show

Succession

Will win/Should win Nothing feels more inevitable this year than a Best Drama win for Succession’s final season, and who could really argue with that?

Gulp: Jeremy Strong in the very last episode of ‘Succession’ (HBO)

Best Television Series, Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary

Barry

The Bear

Jury Duty

Only Murders in the Building

Ted Lasso

Will win This feels like The Bear’s for the taking…

Should win …though there’s also an argument to be made that The Bear bit off more than it could chew this last season, expanding its universe a little too far out of the kitchen – so perhaps we’ll see a victory here for Jury Duty, the word-of-mouth pseudo-hoax hit that also made everyone suddenly discover Freevee on Prime Video.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Drama

Brian Cox, Succession

Kieran Culkin, Succession

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us

Jeremy Strong, Succession

Dominic West, The Crown

Will win The sheer volume of Succession choices here means a bit of vote-splitting could occur – which leaves a gap open for Pedro Pascal to cement his burgeoning stardom.

Should win If we have to pick one of the equally deserving Succession men, it’s gotta be Jeremy Strong, surely?

The best of them? Pedro Pascal could take home gold for ‘The Last of Us’ (HBO)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy

Bill Hader, Barry

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Will win/Should win Jeremy Allen White broke the internet earlier this week by posing in his pants for Calvin Klein, and ought to take home the Best Actor prize this weekend for The Bear – that’s range, people!

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Drama

Helen Mirren, 1923

Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

Sarah Snook, Succession

Imelda Staunton, The Crown

Emma Stone, The Curse

Will win Sarah Snook will likely take this, but would it really be that surprising if the Globes handed it to Helen Mirren despite the fact that her Yellowstone spin-off didn’t really take off?

Should win Emma Stone is tooth-wincingly mesmerising in The Curse, immaculately embodying a woman so hungry to be perceived as wise and upstanding that her brain has broken. The show itself is also deeply uncomfortable at the best of times, though, so I don’t imagine Globes voters will go for it.

Unhinged: Emma Stone in ‘The Curse’ (Paramount+)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy

Ayo Edebiri, The Bear

Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

Elle Fanning, The Great

Will win/Should win While it would cap her sterling year if Ayo Edebiri eked out a win here, Poker Face was such a showcase for Natasha Lyonne’s singular, scrappy energy that it’d be lovely to see her awarded.

Best Performance by a Supporting Actor in a Television Series

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show

Matthew Macfadyen, Succession

James Marsden, Jury Duty

Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear

Alan Ruck, Succession

Alexander Skarsgard, Succession

Will win This is another tricky category to predict, but I’m thinking there might be another vote-split between the Succession men. Could Ebon Moss-Bachrach benefit the most?

Should win James Marsden has been one of those perpetually under-the-radar secret greats for at least two decades now, and it’d be lovely to see him properly recognised – his deadpan performance as “himself” on Jury Duty was one of the big surprises of last year.

Comedy hoax: Ronald Gladden and James Marsden in ‘Jury Duty’ (Amazon Freevee)

Best Performance by a Supporting Actress in a Television Series

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

Abby Elliott, The Bear

Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets

J Smith-Cameron, Succession

Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building

Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Will win As if they’re going to nominate Meryl Streep for a rare TV role and not have her take home the prize? Then again, Hannah Waddingham has been so ubiquitous of late – I think she was hiding out in my fridge over Christmas – that it wouldn’t be too surprising if she won this.

Should win Come on, J Smith-Cameron is right there!

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

All the Light We Cannot See

Beef

Daisy Jones & the Six

Fargo

Fellow Travelers

Lessons in Chemistry

Should win Controversy slightly soiled Netflix’s Beef in the end, due to resurfaced comments about rape by cast member David Choe. But if we’re to judge what was actually on screen, this early-2023 conversation-starter should probably take the win.

Will win Recency bias could push the gay period drama Fellow Travelers to the front of the pack here – that and the fact that most of its competitors struggled to break out this year.

Golden couple? Jonathan Bailey and Matt Bomer in ‘Fellow Travelers’ (Paramount+)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers

Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six

Jon Hamm, Fargo

Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers

David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves

Steven Yeun, Beef

Will win What is Lawmen: Bass Reeves you ask? We don’t know! But in all seriousness, it feels like the sort of not-really-there streaming series anchored by a big name that would win a category like this.

Should win It’s doubtful anyone is actually watching, but Jon Hamm is doing really brilliant work on the current season of Fargo. It’d be nice to see that consistently interesting yet typically underrated anthology series get its due.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six

Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry

Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death

Juno Temple, Fargo

Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers

Ali Wong, Beef

Should win Few seemed to actually watch Prime Video’s Dead Ringers adaptation, about weird twins scandalising the medical industry – which is a shame, since Rachel Weisz was (doubly) spectacular in it.

Will win Daisy Jones & the Six didn’t seem like the breakout smash Prime Video was hoping for (I’m sensing a pattern), but Riley Keough has very publicly had a traumatic few years and did very good work on the show itself – she’ll likely be in voters’ minds far more than the women she’s up against.