Who will win at the 2025 Golden Globes, and who should win

Ahead of tonight’s ceremony, Louis Chilton and Adam White have surveyed the major categories at the Globes to determine which films and TV shows will reign supreme, from ‘The Substance’ and ‘Baby Reindeer’ to ‘Nobody Wants This’ and ‘Anora’

Death, taxes, and the relentless march of awards season: these are the certainties of life.

The first major ceremony of the year, the Golden Globes, is being held on Sunday 5 January (or the early hours of Monday morning in the UK), and will recognise some of the very best achievements in film and television over the past 12 months.

With the Globes still striving to resuscitate their reputation following the 2021 scandal over racism and voting integrity, this year’s awards have been decided by an expanded and diversified voting body. Quality, it is hoped, should win out, as it largely did last year.

Among the heavyweight contenders this year are The Brutalist, the ambitious mid-century epic starring Adrien Brody as a Jewish architect, and Anora, Sean Baker’s bitingly funny drama about a sex worker (Mikey Madison) who marries a feckless Russian playboy.

Emilia Perez, the divisive Netflix musical about a transgender crime boss, and the Ralph Fiennes-starring papal thriller Conclave are also among the nominees in film.

Meanwhile, when it comes to television, the frontrunners are the Japan-set historical drama Shogun, the fraught restaurant comedy The Bear, and the buzzy miniseries Baby Reindeer, which drew on creator-star Richard Gadd’s real-life experiences with a stalker.

See below for The Independent’s breakdown of what to expect at this year’s Golden Globes, including who will (most likely) win, and who should win.

Adrien Brody in ‘The Brutalist’ (A24)

Best Motion Picture – Drama

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nickel Boys

September 5

Will win / Should win: The Brutalist

This year’s nominees are a mixed bag, with three great films (Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, and The Brutalist) sitting alongside three not-so-great ones. However, if The Brutalist – the bookies’ favourite by a hair – does indeed claim the prize, it’ll be a worthy winner: this three-and-a-half-hour epic is staggering in its ambition and execution. Brady Corbet’s opus is dense with ideas, all communicated with incredible verve and purpose. Louis Chilton

Cynthia Erivo in ‘Wicked’ (Universal)

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Anora

Challengers

Emilia Pérez

A Real Pain

The Substance

Wicked

Will win: Wicked / Should win: Challengers

This is a very tricky category to call. Will the Globes go for Wicked, if only because it made so much money? Or will they go for The Substance, a surreal and gonzo piece of Eurotrash with A-list American stars, even if it’s not really a comedy? It’s certainly less funny than the not exactly laugh-out-loud Challengers, which walks over the rest of the films in this category in terms of sheer spectacle and fun. Why isn’t the thrilling Zendaya love triangle movie sweeping Oscar season? Putting that complaint aside, though, our money is on Wicked. Adam White

Zoe Saldaña in ‘Emilia Perez’ (Netflix)

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

All We Imagine as Light

Emilia Pérez

The Girl With the Needle

I’m Still Here

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Vermiglio

Will win: Emilia Pérez / Should win: All We Imagine as Light

Chances are that Emilia Pérez, with its Netflix backing and internationally famous stars, will be the most watched of these six films, so it’s likely it’ll take home the award here. But it’s absolutely the worst movie here – a thematically dubious and poorly made spectacle bearing absolutely none of the soul or heft of its fellow nominees, and notably Payal Kapadia’s stirring and magical All We Imagine as Light. AW

Nicole Kidman in ‘Babygirl’ (Niko Tavernise)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)

Angelina Jolie (Maria)

Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)

Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)

Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Kate Winslet (Lee)

Will win / Should win: Nicole Kidman

This feels a bit like a two-horse race between Jolie and Kidman: two glamorous veterans long adored by Globes voters and doing their best work in years. But we give the edge to Kidman for her provocative and daring performance as a sexually restless tech CEO embroiled in a BDSM love affair. AW

Elle Fanning and Timothée Chalamet in ‘A Complete Unknown’ (Searchlight)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Daniel Craig (Queer)

Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Will win: Timothée Chalamet / Should win: Adrien Brody

There’s no clear favourite in this strong category, but I’m going to plump for Chalamet – you’d be a fool to bet against a glossy music biopic at an event like this. His turn as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown has drawn no small amount of praise. But it’s Brody’s breathtaking comeback in The Brutalist, playing a troubled Jewish-Hungarian architect who immigrates to America, that most deserves this award. LC

Mikey Madison in ‘Anora’ (Neon)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Amy Adams (Nightbitch)

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)

Mikey Madison (Anora)

Demi Moore (The Substance)

Zendaya (Challengers)

Will win / Should win: Mikey Madison

This category has several deserving winners this year – Zendaya deserves recognition for her stunning turn as the lone woman in Challengers‘ messy tennis love triangle, as does Demi Moore, who was haunting and unexpected in the maximalist body horror The Substance. But it’s hard to see anyone beating Madison, who emerged from relative obscurity (unless you’re a Better Things fan, that is) to electrify Anora every minute she’s on screen. This category is Musical or Comedy, after all, and Madison’s Ani is by far the funniest performance on this list. LC

Glen Powell and Adria Arjona in ‘Hit Man’ (Netflix)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Hugh Grant (Heretic)

Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night)

Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness)

Glen Powell (Hit Man)

Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

Will win: Glen Powell / Should win: Jesse Plemons

A Globe win would really cap what has been an extraordinary two years for Glen Powell, who is very much Hollywood’s current next big leading man. He is admittedly brilliant in the fake-assassin comedy Hit Man, so it wouldn’t be a dubious victory. But Jesse Plemons is marvellous in Yorgos Lanthimos’s surreal triptych Kinds of Kindness, playing three different incarnations of desperate manhood. AW

Ariana Grande in ‘Wicked’ (Universal)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)

Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

Margaret Qualley (The Substance)

Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Will win / Should win: Ariana Grande

Few would have called this a year ago, but doesn’t an Ariana Grande Best Supporting Actress awards season sweep feel somewhat inevitable – and quite nicely deserved? Her work in Wicked as a moneyed sorceress-in-training is frothy and delightful, and you genuinely miss her presence whenever she’s not on screen. AW

Kieran Culkin and Jesse Eisenberg in ‘A Real Pain’ (Searchlight)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Yura Borisov (Anora)

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Will win: Kieran Culkin / Should win: Guy Pearce

Culkin, nominated here alongside former Succession sib Jeremy Strong, will almost certainly win this award. And it’s fair enough: his turn as an irreverent grief-stricken man on a trip to Poland with his cousin (Jesse Eisenberg, also directing) is brilliant, even if it draws on shades of his past work. Guy Pearce, however, is doing something utterly new in The Brutalist, as the rageful, conceited American tycoon who takes an interest in Adrien Brody. LC

Adrien Brody in ‘The Brutalist' (A24)

Best Director – Motion Picture

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

Sean Baker (Anora)

Edward Berger (Conclave)

Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

Will win / Should win: Brady Corbet

Corbet, who first rose to fame (sort of) as the lead in the live-action Thunderbirds movie, showed real promise as a director in his first two movies, Childhood of a Leader and Vox Lux. But The Brutalist is still a great leap forward for Corbet, a triumph of directing as much as anything. LC

Anna Sawai in ‘Shōgun’ (FX)

Best Television Series – Drama

The Day of the Jackal

The Diplomat

Mr & Mrs Smith

Shōgun

Slow Horses

Squid Game

Will win: Shōgun / Should win: Mr & Mrs Smith

What was overall a rather unremarkable year for TV dramas did yield a few standouts, including the likely winner Shōgun. But while Hulu’s drama – about an English sailor who becomes a samurai in shogunate Japan – was indeed handsome and compelling (and swept the Emmys earlier this year), it is arguably Mr & Mrs Smith that stands out most among these nominees. Starring Donald Glover and Maya Erskine as two spies sent to live undercover as a married couple, the series was not just a clever reinvention of, but a substantial improvement upon, its well-known source material. LC

Kristen Bell and Adam Brody in ‘Nobody Wants This’ (Netflix)

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary

The Bear

The Gentlemen Hacks

Nobody Wants This

Only Murders in the Building

Will win: Nobody Wants This / Should win: Hacks

The interfaith romcom series Nobody Wants This was one of the few breakout comedy hits this last year, and feels like a worthy winner. But the Hollywood satire Hacks is consistently sharp television and arguably better than ever in its third and most recent season. It’d be great to see it awarded. AW

Richard Gadd and Nava Mau in ‘Baby Reindeer’ (Netflix)

Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made For Television

Baby Reindeer

Disclaimer

Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

The Penguin

Ripley

True Detective: Night Country

Will win / Should win: Baby Reindeer

Since the initial blizzard of popularity and glowing reviews, comedian Richard Gadd’s autobiographical miniseries has been caught in a maelstrom of controversy. (The woman claiming to have inspired the character of Martha, Gadd’s obsessed stalker, is currently suing Netflix for defamation.) It’s all rather messy, but Baby Reindeer’s willingness to embrace messiness – to indulge complicated moral grey areas without simplifying or euphemising – is one of its very finest qualities. It makes all the other nominees here look rather tame and straightforward by comparison. LC

Anna Sawai in ‘Shōgun’ (Disney)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Kathy Bates (Matlock)

Emma D’Arcy (House of the Dragon)

Maya Erskine (Mr & Mrs Smith)

Keira Knightley (Black Doves)

Keri Russell (The Diplomat)

Anna Sawai (Shōgun)

Will win / Should win: Anna Sawai

Japanese actor Sawai is expected to win in the drama category this year, beating out a handful of more familiar names. Throughout House of the Dragon’s rocky second season, Emma D’Arcy remained a high point, while Maya Erskine superlatively juggled comedy, romance and action set pieces in Mr & Mrs Smith. But it’s hard to aver that any of them were better than Sawai, perhaps the standout actor in a show teeming with talent. LC

Eddie Redmayne in ‘The Day of the Jackal' (Marcell Piti)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Donald Glover (Mr & Mrs. Smith)

Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent)

Gary Oldman (Slow Horses)

Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal)

Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun)

Billy Bob Thornton (Landman)

Will win: Eddie Redmayne / Should win: Hiroyuki Sanada

Of the many movie stars appearing in new TV series this year, only Eddie Redmayne seemed to luck out: The Day of the Jackal earned as much acclaim for its storytelling as its performances, something that couldn’t be said for Jake Gyllenhaal’s Presumed Innocent, Cate Blanchett’s Disclaimer or Kate Winslet’s The Regime. So it’s likely he’ll take the prize here. But it’s Hiroyuki Sanada who delivered one of the best performances of the year in Shōgun, sourcing quiet, powerful intensity as a feudal lord. AW

Kristen Bell in ‘Nobody Wants This’ (Netflix)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This)

Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)

Ayo Edebiri (The Bear)

Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)

Kathryn Hahn (Agatha All Along)

Jean Smart (Hacks)

Will win: Kristen Bell / Should win: Jean Smart

With The Bear creatively faltering in its second season, it’s likely that Ayo Edebiri won’t take this category, leaving a slot open for Kristen Bell to take the win. Much like the main Best Comedy Series category, though, it’d be wonderful if Hacks star Jean Smart was celebrated instead. AW

Jeremy Allen White in ‘The Bear’ (FX)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This)

Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside)

Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)

Jason Segel (Shrinking)

Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)

Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

Will win / Should win: Jeremy Allen White

Look. Is it right that The Bear, a half-hour drama with the odd funny moment thrown in, is competing in the Musical or Comedy category? No. Does that make Jeremy Allen White’s performance as dysfunctional haute cuisine chef “Carmy” Berzatto any less brilliant? No, it does not. LC

Richard Gadd in ‘Baby Reindeer’ (Netflix)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Colin Farrell (The Penguin)

Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer)

Kevin Kline (Disclaimer)

Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story)

Ewan McGregor (A Gentleman in Moscow)

Andrew Scott (Ripley)

Will win: Richard Gadd / Should win: Colin Farrell

In Baby Reindeer, Gadd may be playing himself, but he does a commendable job nonetheless; without such a raw and multifaceted performance, the series’ harrowing exploration of trauma would be robbed of much of its power. But what about Colin Farrell? As the paunchy Batman villain Oz Cobb (The Penguin), Farrell is utterly unrecognisable. You can put this down to the cocoon of prosthetics around his face, but it’s just as much to do with Farrell’s characterisation; the Irish actor imbues the larger-than-life mobster with a wonderfully greasy charisma. LC

Jodie Foster in ‘True Detective: Night Country’ (HBO)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer)

Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country)

Cristin Milioti (The Penguin)

Sofía Vergara (Griselda)

Naomi Watts (Feud: Capote vs the Swans)

Kate Winslet (The Regime)

Will win: Jodie Foster / Should win: Cristin Milioti

The Wolf of Wall Street’s Cristin Milioti was the breakout surprise of the DC Comics show The Penguin, playing a furious and psychopathic heiress to a mob fortune. It’s annoyingly likely that she’ll be overlooked here, though, in favour of one of the bigger names in this star-stacked category. We just about give the edge to Jodie Foster, though, for working wonders in a True Detective revival that became increasingly baffling as it went on. AW

Jessica Gunning in ‘Baby Reindeer’ (Netflix)

Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear)

Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)

Dakota Fanning (Ripley)

Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer)

Allison Janney (The Diplomat)

Kali Reis (True Detective: Night Country)

Will win / Should win: Jessica Gunning

This is a strong category, but surely Jessica Gunning’s mesmerising portrayal of Baby Reindeer’s central stalker is all sewn up for the win. Everyone was talking about this performance last year – it’d be a travesty if it wasn’t rewarded. AW

Ebon Moss-Bachrach in ‘The Bear’ (FX)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television

Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun)

Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story)

Harrison Ford (Shrinking)

Jack Lowden (Slow Horses)

Diego Luna (La Máquina)

Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear)

Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach / Should win: Tadanobu Asano

None of the nominees here seem particularly primed for victory, so it may be Globes favourite Ebon Moss-Bachrach, for his perpetually stressed work in The Bear, who’ll edge the others out for the win. That said, Tadanobu Asano was so deliciously underhand and evil on Shōgun that we wouldn’t be taken aback if he is called up to the podium on Sunday. AW