Golden Globes 2019 predictions: Who will win and who should win?

‘A Star is Born’ is likely to dominate the film categories, while ‘The Marvelous Mrs Maisel’, ‘Killing Eve’, and ‘The Assassination of Gianni Versace’ are favourites in the TV categories

The first major ceremony of awards season, the Golden Globes, is right around the corner. As ever, it hands out awards for both film and television, offering an early indicator of what may win big on Oscar night, while also reaffirming many of the victories from the Emmy Awards in September.

We’ve done our best to guess what the HFPA (that’s the Hollywood Foreign Press Association) will go for in 2019 – as well as offering our own verdict on the most worthy choice in each of the major categories.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Will Win: A Star is Born
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star is Born may have its rougher, rawer edges, thanks to the intuitive style of Bradley Cooper – making his directorial debut – but the remake is also true to the tone of its three cinematic predecessors. In its telling of the love story between a rising star and her alcoholic mentor, it’s packed with all the big emotions and big drama of a true Hollywood fable – exactly the kind of film HFPA voters adore.

If Beale Street Could Talk, meanwhile, may not have acquired the same buzz as Barry Jenkins’s directorial debut, Moonlight, but it’d be refreshing to see an awards body recognise how quickly Jenkins is becoming a major force in modern cinema.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Will Win: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Should Win: Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Lady Gaga as Ally in 'A Star is Born' (AP)

Although Lady Gaga’s performance as Ally, the nightclub singer turned pop phenomenon, has been praised as revelatory by some, HFPA voters were already wise to her talents: she picked up the award for Best Actress in a Limited-Series or TV Movie back in 2016 for her deliciously theatrical turn as The Countess on American Horror Story.

So there’s surely no doubt that the HFPA will reward her for this undoubtedly mightier performance, which delivers both vulnerability and dignity, making Ally a more grounded version of the classic Hollywood heroine.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Rami Malek’s turn as Freddie Mercury in Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody may have been praised as a spot-on impression by critics, but the film itself got a mixed reception. It was assumed the film wasn’t good enough to compete on the awards circuit, even before taking into account the sexual assault allegations faced by its director, Bryan Singer.

However, HFPA voters can’t seem to resist a film like this, and Bohemian Rhapsody has ended up with several nominations, making it very likely Malek will win in this category. However, as good as Malek’s performance is, he’s not given much material to make his Mercury shine, especially compared to Cooper’s layered performance as tortured country singer Jackson Maine.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Green Book
Should Win: The Favourite

Green Book is officially this year’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: a film with a significant groundswell of support, but also facing significant criticism for its depiction of race. A buddy comedy about the unexpected friendship between famous pianist Dr Don Shirley (Mahershala Ali) and his driver (Viggo Mortensen), the picture has been praised for delivering a much-needed dose of optimism.

But it has also been accused of oversimplifying issues of race, and implying that racism is now a thing of the past. Still, the HFPA picked Three Billboards over The Shape of Water for Best Drama in 2018, suggesting the controversy may have little effect on Green Book’s chances here. That means ignoring, however, the brilliance of Yorgos Lanthimos’s The Favourite, a viciously funny (and, when it needs to be, moving) comedy that rewrites the rules for period films.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Crowning achievement: Olivia Colman in ‘The Favourite’ (Yorgos Lanthimos/Fox Searchlight Films via AP) (AP)

Olivia Colman is a national treasure and her work as Queen Anne in The Favourite, toying with the two courtiers vying for her affections (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), could very well be her best performance yet. The film’s script – which is also likely to win Best Screenplay at the Globes – is an actor’s dream and a formidable showcase for all three of its stars, thanks to its heady mix of absurdism, grandeur, and tragedy.

She’s surely (yes) the favourite here, and may even have what it takes to beat Gaga to Best Actress at the Academy Awards, although it will be a tight race.

Will Win: Christian Bale, Vice
Should Win: Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun

Awards bodies love a physical transformation, which makes Christian Bale’s unrecognisable turn as Dick Cheney in Vice, a biopic about the former vice president directed by The Big Short’s Adam McKay, a strong favourite in this category. Bale is well-known as a method-acting devotee and he certainly gets to go all in as Cheney, from the prosthetics to the mannerisms to the sense of ruthless ambition.

Yet it’s such a safe choice for the Golden Globes, especially when compared to Robert Redford’s subtler work in The Old Man & the Gun, supposedly his final performance and a charming, elegant curtain call for the screen legend.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

Will Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Although Stone and Weisz, both nominated for their performances in The Favourite, are strong contenders here, no one in this category quite dominated the screen like Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk, playing a mother determined to fight for her daughter’s right to a life of love and freedom. It’s a performance where so much of the emotion is held beneath the surface, with many of King’s best moments playing out without dialogue.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Should Win: Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Memorable: Mahershala Ali in ‘Green Book’ (Universal Pictures via AP)

Green Book’s strength lies in its two central performances and, if the film itself wins on the night, it seems inevitable that one of its stars will also be rewarded. Mahershala Ali benefits from a less competitive category than his co-star Viggo Mortensen, who is nominated as lead actor. He also gives the more memorable performance, despite having less screen time, playing a man determined to maintain his dignity in a world that’s structured to strip him of it.

However, even his work can’t top Richard E Grant’s fragile but sparkling turn as raconteur and petty criminal Jack Hock in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, a biopic about literary forger Lee Israel.

Best Director – Motion Picture

Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Roma’s glaring omission from the nominations for Best Motion Picture – Drama isn’t actually a snub, but part of the HFPA’s rules for the Globes: any film entered in its Foreign-Language category cannot then compete for either Best Motion Picture awards. It is, however, eligible in categories such as directing, acting, writing, and score.

This means the Globes will give a slightly warped representation of the awards race at large, where the top two competitors have already been narrowed down to Roma and A Star is Born. That means the Best Director race comes down to either Cooper or Alfonso Cuarón, although it’s more likely the latter will scoop up the prize, considering Roma's sophisticated construction, taking the intimate story of a maid in Mexico City in the 1970s and weaving it into a wider narrative of the country’s history.

Best Television Series – Drama

Will Win: Killing Eve
Should win: Killing Eve

Freed from the behemoth that is Game of Thrones, which didn’t have any new episodes in 2018, the Golden Globes has the opportunity to award new and original work. Although Pose was boundary-breaking in its transgender representation, and a thrilling new addition to Ryan Murphy’s television empire, no other show better fits that category than Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s Killing Eve, which reinterpreted the spy genre in a masterful, unexpected way.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Will Win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Should Win: Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Leading man: Matthew Rhys in ‘The Americans’ (Patrick Harbron/FX via AP)

The Americans had its final season last year and it would be quite the mistake not to reward a show that has remained consistently excellent over the course of six season – a relatively rare feat on television. However, the series will have a difficult time competing against Killing Eve, which benefits from the buzz of being a new show, so it’s likely Matthew Rhys will be the only one to walk away with an award for The Americans.

Which is no bad news, since his wearied performance as a former undercover Soviet spy, now attempting to embrace the American life, is very much award worthy.

Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Drama

Will Win: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Should Win: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

Nailing it: Sandra Oh in ‘Killing Eve’ (BBC America via AP)

Although Sandra Oh will already be gracing the stage as Golden Globes co-host, alongside Andy Samberg, it’s a pretty safe bet that she’ll have to make a quick sprint from backstage to accept this award.

Much like The Favourite, one of Killing Eve’s biggest strengths is the depth of material it gives its stars to work with, as Oh nails the balance between the show’s dry sense of humour and the increasing, ragged desperation of her situation, as a deskbound MI5 worker suddenly tangled up in the machinations of a charismatic assassin.

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Will Win: The Marvelous Mrs Maisel​
Should Win: The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

The Golden Globes haven’t rewarded the same show two years in a row since 2010, when Glee triumphed for a second time. However, last year’s winner, Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, simply doesn’t have a superior contender amongst this year’s nominees.

Its second season has continued to charm critics with its sense of warmth and humour, carrying on the story of a 1950s housewife pursuing a career in standup comedy. The only show that could possibly have threatened Maisel’s chances was Atlanta, 2016’s winner, but the HBO series was bizarrely snubbed in the nominations this year.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Should Win: Donald Glover, Atlanta

Star power: Michael Douglas in ‘The Kominsky Method’ (Mike Yarish/Netflix via AP)

The Golden Globes find it hard to resist a little star power when it comes to its TV acting categories and despite The Kominsky Method, about a Hollywood acting coach, failing to generate any wider buzz, Michael Douglas is a strong contender here simply by virtue of being Michael Douglas. Atlanta has at least been recognised in the nominations here and Glover deserves the award, if not solely for his eerie Michael Jackson-esque character Teddy Perkins, who formed the centre of the season’s best episode.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel​
Should Win: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Lucky charm? Rachel Brosnahan in ‘The Marvelous Mrs Maisel’ (Nicole Rivelli/Amazon via AP)

A lot of Maisel’s charm relies on Rachel Brosnahan’s lead performance as Miriam “Midge” Maisel, which almost guarantees a win here. Unlike the Musical or Comedy Series category, the Globes here have a history of awarding repeat honours.

In fact, Julia Louis-Dreyfus won the last six years in a row for Veep and, with Veep about to air its final season, there will be space for a new Louis-Dreyfus to start snapping up the awards. With Brosnahan crafting such a likeable character in Midge, expect her not only to win this year, but many years in the future, if the show keeps up in terms of quality.

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Will Win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Should Win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

American Crime Story may soon prove to be the most successful Ryan Murphy show when it comes to awards recognition. After a firecracker of a first season with The People v OJ Simpson, the series returned with an altogether different, darker, and pulpier take with The Assassination of Gianni Versace. Although it’s competing against the also excellent Sharp Objects, a slow-burning Gillian Flynn adaptation, The Assassination of Gianni Versace is simply too ambitious for the HFPA to resist.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Will Win: Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace​
Should Win: Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Killer performance: Darren Criss as Andrew Cunanan (Ray Mickshaw/FX via AP)

American Crime Story is all about the show-stopping performances. When it came to The People v OJ Simpson, there wasn’t a clear scene-stealer, although Sarah “I am begging your from my soul” Paulson was the one to pick up a Golden Globe for it. This time around, however, it’s all about Darren Criss. The former Glee star is nothing short of revelatory as serial killer Andrew Cunanan in The Assassination of Gianni Versace, a sociopath that we revile but whose story we can’t resist investing in, as the show traces back to the origins of his murder spree.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television

Will Win: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Should Win: Laura Dern, The Tale

Regina King and Amy Adams have the honour of receiving nominations in both the film and television categories this year; while King is likely to pick up the film award for If Beale Street Could Talk, Adams is the strongest contender here and her performance in Sharp Objects will likely trump King’s in Seven Seconds. Adams has always revelled playing in conflicted women, and Camille Preaker provides a perfect opportunity for her to shine.

Adams manages Camille’s layers of trauma and emotional instability with a deft hand, as her character returns to her hometown to investigate the murder of two young girls. Yet, Laura Dern’s performance in The Tale, in which director Jennifer Fox investigates her own experience as the victim of childhood sexual abuse, is so fearless that it deserves recognition. The film tackles its subject truthfully, but unfortunately it’s likely to prove too difficult a watch for most HFPA voters.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Will Win: Henry Winkler, Barry
Should Win: Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal

Happy days? Henry Winkler is a contender for ‘Barry’ (HBO via AP)

This category may see another case of the HFPA paying dues to a screen legend. Henry Winkler’s role in the surprisingly dark and complex Barry, which tells the story of a hitman who ends up in the LA arts scene, allows for a welcome career reinvention for the actor, still so closely associated with his days as the Fonz on Happy Days.

However, dues should be paid to Ben Whishaw, so compellingly defiant in his role as A Very English Scandal’s Norman Scott, the target of an alleged murder plot by his former lover, MP Jeremy Thorpe.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Will Win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Should Win: Thandie Newton, Westworld

Patricia Clarkson as Adora Credlin in ‘Sharp Objects’ (Anne Marie Fox/HBO via AP)

Amy Adams meets her match in Sharp Objects co-star Patricia Clarkson. She plays Camille’s overbearing socialite mother, but the character is infused with a hidden menace that makes her the kind of unlikeable character awards bodies love.

However, while Clarkson is certainly handed rich material to work with, credit should go to Thandie Newton, whose role as Maeve Millay has seen her become the beating heart of Westworld. It feels significant that Newton receives Westworld’s only nomination this year – a testament to the strength of her performance.

The ceremony will take place on 6 January at the Beverly Hilton hotel in Beverly Hills, California. It will air on NBC from 5 to 8pm PT and from 8 to 11 pm ET