The Theory That Would Not Die, By Sharon Bertsch

 

Christopher Hirst
Thursday 18 October 2012 19:28 BST
Comments

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

When Bishop Berkeley rubbished the free-thinking view that reason could illuminate any subject, an opposing clergyman came up with a theory so simple that even an innumerate reviewer can understand it: Initial Beliefs + Recent Objective Data = A New and Improved Belief.

Though Rev. Bayes dropped his own idea, it was independently elaborated by French mathematician Pierre Simon Laplace.

In this revelatory, even exciting book about probability, McGrayne shows how Bayes's rule cracked Enigma codes, sent spam into the e-bin and created a driverless car.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in