If you want to know what a no-deal Brexit will be like, look no further than Catalonia

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Wednesday 25 October 2017 13:04 BST
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In economic terms, Catalonia is to Spain what the UK is to the EU
In economic terms, Catalonia is to Spain what the UK is to the EU (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

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“No-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal” Brexiteers should look closely at business decisions being taken in Catalonia following recent political events.

In economic terms, Catalonia is to Spain what the UK is to the EU: wealthier than average, around a fifth of the overall economy and proud of its history and heritage.

Similarly to populist Brexiteers, the independence movement promised a new El Dorado where all the money would be kept in Catalonia and decisions in all matters would be taken locally, irrespective of what the other side said or thought, with zero actual cost to the new republic.

Then reality struck. A stampede of businesses to other regions in Spain annihilated any dreams of a new “Open Catalonia” free from the shackles of Spain.

With the benefit of hindsight and with just a little common sense, one does not need an MBA to appreciate that a business can barely cope with a large fall (40 per cent) on 20 per cent of sales but that a “modest fall” (20 per cent) on 80 per cent of sales is a matter of survival.

Brexiteers should not rejoice that not much has happened yet (apart from the drop in the pound, increased inflation and stagnation of real wages) as Brexit could be a “slow-motion Catalonia” in the making.

Since the referendum, UK businesses have had the luxury to prepare for change with meaningful decisions being delayed until regulatory clarity becomes available.

But if such clarity fails to materialise or comes too late, a steady stream of similar business decisions will be made in the UK in order to guarantee as much legal certainty as possible and to minimize any potential economic costs.

And before Brexiteers copy Catalan populists’ new message that “businesses will be back very soon and this is only temporary”, reading about the Montreal Effect will bring yet more common-sense, sobering realities.

Antero Touchard
Madrid, Spain

Chris Heaton-Harris can’t whip lecturers into shape

It is stated that universities will defy the “request” from a Tory whip, Chris Heaton-Harris to give information on lecturers teaching about Brexit.

There is no need to reply to this “request”. Defiance is not even necessary.

The MP concerned has overstepped his brief. He is only a Westminster whip. Just return his letter with an attached blank sheet.

John Edgar
Stewarton, Scotland

There can be no peace with Isis

How can we suggest that we offer Isis the chance to reconcile? They are responsible for the slaughter of so many innocents and the brainwashing of good people here in the UK. Peace with Isis can't be achieved.

They have the head of a hydra: there will always be a replacement.

Ashleigh Joshi
Address supplied

Johnson must step up efforts to free Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe

Why the silence from Boris Johnson on the shameful and appalling treatment of a British-Iranian national, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe? Is he frightened to reveal just how low this nation's influence has fallen on this Government's watch?

Do your job, Boris, or your dereliction of duty will not be forgotten, and the electorate will judge you and yours.

Arthur Streatfield
Bath

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