Leading Article: The candle burns lower in Ulster

Even a fortnight ago, the prospects for peace in Northern Ireland still seemed bright. Optimistic predictions were springing from the most unusual quarters. James Molyneaux, the Ulster Unionist party leader, forecast an end to violence within a year. Sir Hugh Annesley, Chief Constable of the RUC, privately suggested three years. These comments offered comfort to those with great expectations of December's Downing Street Declaration.

Against that background, this week's carnage is deeply disillusioning. With republican and loyalist paramilitaries locked in tit-for-tat killings, suspicions multiply that Gerry Adams and his like are not serious about peace and, even if they are, cannot carry the bulk of their supporters. Amid the ritual bloodshed, only a fantasist could discern any sign that Sinn Fein and the IRA are interested in peaceful politics. 'How do they expect this to be believed by the public . . . (who) see republican violence on the rise again?' Albert Reynolds, the Irish Taoiseach, pointedly asked on Wednesday. Yesterday's revelation that the IRA has attempted to buy arms from Iran can only increase cynicism and further deflate hope.

These developments are only the latest manifestation of the IRA overplaying its hand. In the early days of the peace process the leadership seemed sophisticated, gaining propaganda victories over the secret exchange of documents and the visit by Mr Adams to America. Since then the tide has gradually turned as Sinn Fein has dithered. The mortar attacks on Heathrow Airport, the tokenistic and inadequate three- day Easter ceasefire and now these latest killings suggest an opportunist organisation that cannot grasp or even recognise an historic opportunity. As Mr Reynolds said: 'Are these events a sign that the unity of purpose and discipline in that organisation is not as strong as is often supposed?'

The only encouraging aspect of this latest round of violence is that Sinn Fein and the IRA are now accountable for violence in a way that is unprecedented. Every time a bomb explodes or a person is murdered, republicans must answer the accusation that they lied about their supposedly peaceful intentions. Within their own ranks, these organisations are forced to question killings which continued virtually unchallenged for decades among their supporters.

If the Downing Street Declaration achieves nothing more than generating a crisis in the IRA over the legitimacy of employing violence, it has been of great use. But for those who hoped for more than this, the candle has burned a little lower this week.