Boris Johnson should heed the Covid warnings coming from Europe

Editorial: A false sense of security seems to have formed, and with every day that passes without action the chances of a traditional Christmas diminish

Far better to hear some mumbled grumbles from behind the masks of a few libertarian backbenchers than risk another shock in the polls (AFP via Getty)

A few days ago the prime minister warned that a Covid “blizzard from the east” and “storm of infection” could, in effect, cancel Christmas as we used to know it, for a second year.

It seems that he was right. Such is the familiar exponential increase in infections, and thus hospitalisations and deaths, that country after country across Europe is implementing restrictions, up to and including lockdowns.

Austria, the Netherlands, France, Germany, and even Sweden are advising or ordering their citizens to wear masks, avoid crowded spaces, work from home, maintain social distancing or get vaccine passports. The “blizzard” is gathering storm force. Scotland and Wales are already implementing elements of England’s “Plan B”.

Such moves now can buy time, for renewed efforts to vaccinate populations and strengthen test and trace procedures. England, though, under the control of the continent’s most complacent leader, seems doomed to a lonely Christmas.

Were it not for the unhappy pattern of the past 18 months or so, it would be incomprehensible. For what are you supposed to do if there is a storm coming? Common sense suggests you take precautions and take cover. Yet Boris Johnson, once again, sets his face against it, trusting in the defensive vaccine wall.

Yet that wall, having been constructed in record time, is already showing signs of fatigue, and was delivered earlier than in Europe, and thus is now a source of vulnerability rather than strength.

The booster programme, and vaccination of younger cohorts, is not proceeding with the same urgency as the initial rounds in the spring and summer. With so many restrictions abolished so quickly, a false sense of security seems to have been formed, and the prime minister’s advanced case of complacency has become infectious.

The hard lesson is that Covid demands early and decisive action to check its growth: By the time the lines in the chart start to turn skywards it is already too late for “Plan B”-style modest measures. For every day that passes without action, the chances of a traditional Christmas diminish.

It is a useful discipline, this popular obsession with protecting the observance of ancient social rituals at the year end, but the real point about taking precautionary measures now is that, to borrow an old phrase, they will protect the NHS and save lives.

The NHS already needs protecting, as GP appointments get harder to secure, ambulance delays run into hours, and waiting times for important treatments turn from weeks into months. Arguably, in some parts of the country, some elements of health care are already collapsing. Covid is killing nowhere near as many people as in earlier spikes, and illnesses tend to be less serious and shorter – but they do still often require brief spells on a ward. With the long backlog of non-Covid cases, it adds up to a system that cannot cope.

It is hard to see the downside in people wearing face coverings, working more from home and showing proof of vaccination or a negative test in order to enter crowded areas. Certainly, there is some inconvenience and some economic cost, but nothing on the scale of a full lockdown, should that become necessary.

The prime minister should ask his advisers for an idea of what might go wrong in the very near future if he continues to do nothing about the blizzard blowing this way. Politically, the very worst thing he could do is to repeat the pattern of last year and “cancel Christmas” at the last moment.

Far better to hear some mumbled grumbles from behind the masks of a few libertarian backbenchers than risk another shock in the polls. If he wants to give Sir Keir Starmer a Christmas gift beyond price, a complacent Boris Johnson is going the right way about it.