Boris Johnson thinks woman-baiting macho politics can swing an election with barely a third of the vote

Inside Westminster: Cummings’s mantra is to get it done ‘by any means necessary’. If that means stoking anti-politics and a battle with parliament or the Supreme Court, then the ends justify the means

Normally, when a backroom political adviser goes front of house and steals the show it ends in tears. It happened to Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair’s communications director, in the fall-out from the Iraq War.

Many at Westminster think the same fate will befall Dominic Cummings, the man they regard as the “evil genius” behind Boris Johnson’s divisive and intemperate language in the Commons this week, and Johnson’s “do or die” strategy to leave the EU on 31 October.

But so far, Cummings has defied the rule that advisers should be seen but not heard. When Labour MP Karl Turner confronted him about death threats he had received, Cummings told him: “Get Brexit done.” Speaking at a book launch, the former Vote Leave campaign director said it was “not surprising that some people are angry” about the Brexit delay, and found it “odd” that the MPs who caused the impasse were surprised by it. (No concession to MPs’ right to exercise their judgement to prevent an act of economic self-harm).

In a typically aggressive, super-confident line, Cummings reassured Brexiteers: “The referendum was pressure, the referendum was difficult. This is a walk in the park compared to that. All the Vote Leave team, we are enjoying this, we are going to win, we are going to leave, don’t worry.”

This is what admirers call “classic Dom”: he is very good at winding up his opponents, who often walk into his traps, like his referendum claim that Brexit would mean an extra £350m a week for the NHS. In attacking the false (gross) figure, the Remain camp magnified it. He is doing it again now by rebranding the Benn Act, which forces Boris Johnson to seek an extension of the UK’s EU membership if there is no deal, as the Surrender Act. The new version of the 2016 “take back control” slogan is “get Brexit done” – the theme of the upcoming Tory conference in Manchester.

Cummings’s mantra is to get it done “by any means necessary”. If that means stoking anti-politics and a battle with parliament or the Supreme Court, then the ends justify the means. There were calls for him to be fired after this week’s devastating ruling that Johnson acted unlawfully by suspending parliament for five weeks.

But Cummings does not play by the rules: he makes them up as he goes along. He is clever at positioning Johnson into “win/win situations”. So judges will be bracketed with MPs in a “people versus establishment” election. Another court battle looks inevitable when Johnson tries to wriggle out of the Benn Act’s straitjacket.

Macho politics can work for a while but sometimes enemies get their revenge. When Cummings worked as special adviser to former education secretary Michael Gove, they took on another establishment – the education world, dubbed “the blob”. David Cameron liked their reforms but not Cummings’ “abrasive and aggressive edge”. Gove so alienated teachers and parents that he was demoted to chief whip against his wishes. In his memoirs, Cameron describes Cummings and Nigel Farage as having “something of the night about them” and being part of a “cauldron of toxicity”.

Will macho politics get Brexit over the line or will the Cummings approach alienate so many people that it self-destructs? Johnson is convinced the “Surrender Act” rhetoric hurts Corbyn. But it raises a “chicken and egg” question: are Brexiteers fuelling the “anger” in the country with such language or merely reflecting the anger that already exists? I suspect the former, though they will claim the latter.

It’s a high-risk strategy. Johnson had the “get it done” and “Surrender Act” lines in his head when he faced MPs on Wednesday. But he overstepped the mark by saying the best way to honour the murdered Labour MP Jo Cox was to “get Brexit done”. He was also wrong to dismiss as “humbug” the fears of woman MPs about threats of violence.

I suspect this episode will enhance Johnson’s problem with female voters. YouGov found that he has a worse “favourability rating” among women (a net minus 25 points) than men (minus 17). Women are much less likely than men to support no deal.

Like Donald Trump, Johnson is playing to his base. The calculation is probably that he can win a Commons majority with 35 per cent of the votes because the opposition parties are divided. This is one reason Johnson does not want a Final Say referendum requiring 51 per cent, despite Cummings’ confidence about winning it with a “tell them again” message. The Liberal Democrats’ revival helps the Tories if they take Remain votes away from Labour in Con-Lab marginals. However, if the Lib Dems achieved real lift off, they could scupper this strategy by winning more Tory seats.

The other danger in what Sir John Major called “the language of division and hate” is that Johnson trashes his own brand as a One Nation, liberal Conservative. Brexiteers might not mind the Tories becoming the nasty party again, but it might just provoke Remainers into the anti-Tory tactical voting that could still wreck the Johnson-Cummings strategy. And then the beneficiary would be the last person Johnson wants to help… Corbyn.