Bitcoin: ‘Digital gold’ or tool to evade sanctions?
‘Bitcoin is like a knife to a surgeon or a knife to a criminal, its value comes from the intention behind its use’
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Your support makes all the difference.In the first five days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of bitcoin shot up by 20 per cent. In that same time, the ruble collapsed against the dollar by almost the exact same amount.
The dramatic swings saw the cryptocurrency overtake the ruble, leading many Russians to turn to crypto exchanges in an attempt to protect their savings by buying bitcoin.
While this appeared to solidify BTC’s growing reputation as a form of “digital gold”, it also led to fears that Russia would attempt to use the decentralised currency to bypass severe economic sanctions imposed by the West in response to its military action against its neighbour.
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Cryptocurrency has proved popular with pariah regimes in the past, most notably with North Korea where researchers claim the technology is being use to prop up the economy. A 2019 report from the UN Security Council estimated that Pyongyang has amassed upwards of $670 million worth of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to counter the effects of international sanctions.
But its effectiveness for an economy the size of Russia is an entirely different prospect, with some analysts doubting that it would have much impact on circumventing the dire economic situation the country finds itself in.
“Despite Iran and North Korea having used cryptocurrencies to get around US sanctions, Russia’s case is unique,” Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at the UK-based digital asset broker GlobalBlock, told The Independent.
“This is because there is not enough global liquidity to support the $50 billion in foreign exchange transaction volume that Russia settles daily – Bitcoin’s daily volume is typically around $20-50 billion.
“In addition, Russia is unable to use crypto to replace the hundreds of billions of dollars that will potentially be frozen due to the traceability of blockchain technology. On a blockchain ledger, every transaction, as well as the address associated, is viewable to the public. While the address is anonymous, the volume is transparent which could be flagged as suspicious. I assume that Russia has prepared for the exclusion from SWIFT by setting up relationships with banks in the likes of Asia.”
While their utility may be limited this kind of scale, cryptocurrencies can prove useful to individuals living within Russia. Trading volume surged to its highest level of 2022 this week, with crypto market commentator Lark Davis noting that the trend came “in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict”.
Major cryptocurrency exchanges have refused to cut off Russian accounts, despite calls from Ukraine Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov to freeze transactions in Russia. Coinbase cited “economic freedom”, while Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said this week that such action would “fly in the face” of the reason crypto exists.
“We’re not against any people,” he told the BBC. “We differentiate between the Russian politicians who start wars and the normal people. Many normal Russians do not agree with war. We don’t control the industry.”
In this context, bitcoin could fulfil its growing reputation as a safe-haven asset, serving as a form of “digital gold” during times of geopolitical and economic crisis.
“In these perilous and uncertain times, bitcoin is not capitulating as many of its detractors had predicted,” a member of the BitFinex trading team told The Independent. “In fact we may be witnessing the world’s first major conflict in the age of cryptocurrency, and this is proving to be a great test case to see how bitcoin performs.”
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH) and dogecoin, have also proved invaluable to Ukraine in its fundraising efforts, providing a borderless and near-instant way of transferring funds to the country’s defence and humanitarian efforts.
Within three days of the Ukraine’s official Twitter account putting out a call for crypto donations, more than $30 million worth of cryptocurrencies had poured into the country’s digital wallets.
“Remember this tweet when the mainstream news tells you bitcoin is evil because Russia is using it to bypass sanctions,” commented crypto advocate and author Preson Pysh.
“Bitcoin is like a knife to a surgeon or a knife to a criminal. Like any valuable technology throughout time, its value comes from the intention behind its use.”
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