Hodgson must subdue Scottish capacity for mayhem

England last lost to their oldest rugby rivals six years ago, since when they have averaged more than 30 points to Scotland's miserable eight on their visits to Edinburgh. Murrayfield does not, therefore, hold the kind of terrors designed to keep the world champions awake at night. Yet there was a distinct whiff of danger about the place as Andy Robinson and his team fine-tuned themselves for this evening's Calcutta Cup match - the 123rd meeting between the two countries and one that has yet again captured the imagination of the hostile locals.

Robinson, the England coach, was particularly alert to the gathering Scottish storm yesterday. "You feel it just driving around the city in the team bus," he said. "This is such a fierce rivalry, isn't it? Edinburgh is the kind of place that gets you going, that sharpens you up. There has been a fair bit happening ever since we arrived and we expect more things to happen once we get to the stadium. The question is how we use this stuff in a way that suits us."

Joe Worsley, the blind-side flanker from Wasps, put it more humorously. "We haven't had anyone racing up and butting the bus, as happened in Wales a few years back - tip for supporters: don't attack a moving vehicle with your head - but there have been a few comments here and there. What have people been saying? Let's call it passport advice."

All of which demonstrates that even now, a full decade since the collapse of the old order and the dawning of professionalism, England are about as popular in this town as an investigative journalist in the Nixon White House. Scotland may be a football-driven nation, but on Calcutta Cup day Edinburgh beats with a rugby heart. Few union conversations get beyond the first three sentences without reference to "the slow walk to glory" of 1990 or the storm-lashed triumph of 2000. England do not win many tight games here. They either dominate, or they lose.

Success today depends on a few broad assumptions raising themselves to the status of truths. England's set-piece work is generally considered to be five times better than that of the Scots; Charlie Hodgson is presumed to be an infinitely more potent and sophisticated outside-half than his opposite number, Dan Parks; the visitors' fitness levels, forged in the fires of an unforgiving Premiership, are expected to be higher than those of their opponents. If all these theories are supported by events, the wind will have left the Murrayfield sails long before the final whistle.

But what if Hodgson, the only genuinely creative spirit in the England back division, has a rough one? What if Bruce Douglas, the Borders tight-head prop who has impressed a number of good judges over the first two rounds of the Six Nations, teaches the outsized but inexperienced Andrew Sheridan a thing or two at scrum time? What if genuine athletes like Chris Paterson, Sean Lamont and Mike Blair start running the favourites off their feet and give the outstanding back-row unit of Jason White, Ally Hogg and Simon Taylor something to bite on?

Such dream-like occurrences are not beyond the realms of possibility, especially as the anticipated playing conditions - wet, windy, heavy underfoot - will force mistakes in areas that are usually error-free. What is more, Scotland feel good about themselves, despite their defeat in Cardiff 13 days ago. Indeed, the nature of that reverse has reinforced the positive approach introduced by Frank Hadden, who succeeded the overpromoted Matt Williams as head coach last summer. The Scots played a man down for an hour at the Millennium Stadium, thanks to the early dismissal of Scott Murray, yet were within two scores of Wales come close of play.

"It is vital that we understand exactly what Scotland bring to the game - their fervour, their passion, their aggression," Robinson said. "And under Frank, they have rediscovered something else: the enjoyment factor. Maybe in the first few years of professionalism, people were over-coached and things were allowed to become a little stale. Frank has certainly freshened the side and encouraged them to play with more freedom. I see them as very dangerous opponents."

Under Martin Corry's leadership, England have coped with pretty much everything half a dozen different opponents have thrown at them over the last 11 months, give or take the odd flash of genius from Daniel Carter and the monumental self-belief of Tana Umaga. Robinson sees the Leicester No 8 as central to the red rose operation - "Martin's composure is one of the things that make him such a good captain," the coach said - and has witnessed nothing in the tournament to date to suppose that today's game will weaken his authority. There again, a Scotland side on one of their occasional rolls are a uniquely difficult proposition.

With Paterson and Lamont lurking around in the wide open prairies - Hugo Southwell, the third member of the trinity, is no slouch either - England will require a secure kicking game. Once again, this comes down to Hodgson and Hodgson alone. Had Olly Barkley, the Bath centre, been fit to wear the No 12 shirt washed and ironed for him at the start of the championship, the options would have been many and varied. As it is, the visitors are a one-act show in this department. Scotland thrive on muddle and mayhem, so the likes of Mike Tindall and Jamie Noon will do better to hammer their way upfield with the ball under a hairy armpit than attempt to caress it into space.

An opening 30 minutes full of scrums and line-outs will suit England very nicely thank you. An opening half-hour of visiting knock-ons and committed Scots' scavenging will have the opposite effect. The favourites are favour-ites for a reason, but this particular fixture has a strange life of its own. Expect the unexpected.

Hammered by the Scots Four English calamities at Murrayfield

Scotland 26 England 6 (1971)

Captained by Peter Brown and constructed squarely on the twin foundations of the Gala and West of Scotland clubs, the home side put five unanswered tries past a spellbindingly poor England team in the first of two special matches to mark the Rugby Football Union's centenary celebrations. Some celebration. The visitors, led by Headingley centre John Spencer and featuring the likes of David Duckham and Fran Cotton, were only five points adrift at the interval, but they did not see which way Scotland went at the resumption. It was Scotland's highest score against their traditional foe in 40 years.

Scotland 33 England 6 (1986)

Messy, very messy. England, led by Nigel Melville, had beaten Wales in the first of their Five Nations Championship fixtures a month previously, and travelled north in rude health. They returned in a wooden box. Scotland scored only three tries in a one-sided second period but might have scored half a dozen more, such was their command in open field. John Rutherford, perhaps the finest Scottish outside-half of the post-war era, ran the visitors ragged, bagging a try for himself and opening doors for the likes of the Hastings brothers to subject England to an unprecedented degree of misery.

Scotland 13 England 7 (1990)

Under the distinct impression that they had only to turn up to win, Will Carling's team famously came unstuck on one of Scottish rugby's folklore days. David Sole, captaining a home side bristling with talent at half-back and among the loose forwards, took the field at a funereal pace, thereby allowing the Murrayfield roar to reach new decibel levels. The noise did not abate all afternoon and as Carling lost his leadership bearings, the Scots tightened their grip on the Grand Slam. Tony Stanger wiped out an early try by Jeremy Guscott; Craig Chalmers did the rest with his boot.

Scotland 19 England 13 (2000)

Once again, England came in search of a Grand Slam; once again, Scotland sent them homewards for a period of prolonged reflection and self-flagellation. The visitors were beginning to regather momentum under the then unknighted Clive Woodward, having failed to make the semi-finals in the 1999 World Cup, but they decided they could do without the peerless leadership skills of Martin Johnson, who was fit after injury. They also misread the weather forecasts and were so troubled by the fury of the storm that swept off the Pentland Hills that they could barely find a way out of their own 22.