US Mid-Term Elections: Disgruntled voters may oust Speaker

'You know, we could send a bunch of children up there to run the government and they would do a better job. Really, I believe that.' This is the behind-the-bar wisdom of Steve, doing the late shift at Rock City, a trendy Italian restaurant and drinking parlour in the city-centre of Spokane, at the easternmost edge of Washington state. And it is wisdom that many of his punters share.

That American voters are disgruntled in the approach to next month's mid-term elections is well known, but nowhere is it more vividly illustrated than here. So foul is the discontent in this district, that its citizens are threatening to oust their House representative of the past 30 years, Tom Foley. Never mind that he happens to be House Speaker and third in line of succession to the presidency.

It is a dizzying prospect. Mr Foley, 66 - an Irish-American who agreed to a high-profile meeting on the Hill earlier this month with Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams, but who is also renowned as an avid Anglophile - is widely regarded as a politician of profound integrity and decency. He is the first representative west of the Rocky Mountains to attain the vaunted position of Speaker.

If, on the other hand, he is beaten on 8 November, he will become the first Speaker to fail to win re-election in his home district since 1860, the year Abraham Lincoln was serving his first presidential term.

But Mr Foley's handicaps are not hard to fathom. Precisely as a veteran of 30 years and as Speaker, no one (with the possible exception of Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts) better symbolises the Washington DC status quo. On him is piled the blame for everything perceived as rotten about the capital - the failure to get things done, the perks and privileges of the lawmakers, and the assorted congressional scandals - notably the recent House Bank embarrassment.

On top of that, he is a Democrat in a naturally conservative corner of the country and intimately tied in voters' minds with President Bill Clinton.

Nor has the Speaker helped himself on two issues close to this region's heart.

First, he supported the Clinton Crime Bill that included a ban on automatic assault weapons. His stance prompted the still-powerful National Rifle Association (NRA) to switch its support (and considerable fund-raising capability) to his Republican opponent, George Nethercutt, 50, an adoption lawyer.

Second, he furiously opposes the countrywide movement to impose term-limits on elected officials, even though voters in this state approved a term-limits initiative last year. His antagonism to it has only compounded the impression among many that he has become arrogant in office.

It is a conundrum for Mr Foley. While his insinct is to stress his experience and status in Congress, that also emphasises the length of his tenure. Even pointing to the steady stream of federal dollars he has managed to direct to this district carries risk. 'I will make no apology for helping this district,' he said in a debate with his opponent on Sunday. But Mr Nethercutt calls the largesse 'pork' and illustrated it in the debate by producing from his pocket a plastic pig.

Moreover, unlike past Republican challengers, Mr Neth ercutt is an articulate and appealing candidate who finds he has a simple task - to offer himself as the vehicle for the voters' anger and desire for change. 'Either you vote for Nethercutt, because Foley has been there for too long and because there is hunger for change, or you vote for Foley because he brings home the pork. It is as simple as that,' says his campaign spokesman, Terry Holt.

The change message is no more aptly conveyed than in a television advertisement by the Nethercutt campaign that opens against black-and-white footage of a once-favourite American western series. The script begins: '1964. Bonanza was the top television show, Lyndon Johnson was president and Tom Foley was elected to Congress. Except for Tom, a lot's changed in 30 years.' Mr Foley is attempting to strike back but so far remains behind Mr Nethercutt in the polls by up to 10 points.

For some, ditching Mr Foley seems little short of insane. 'Foley is powerful and we would be trading him for a nothing,' says Dennis Sweeney, a Spokane doctor. 'Nethercutt is just feeding off the resentment that people feel.'

But John Freily, a telecommunications engineer, sees it differently. 'We just have to change the whole system in Washington. Electing Nethercutt will send the message. They don't have the courage to do it on their own.'