Imran pulls in crowds but has little chance of scoring in Pakistan poll

Wrapped in a garland of pink and silver tinsel, his arms held aloft, Imran Khan could almost have been fresh off the field from hitting a century at Lord's. He was being fêted with cricket bats, some thrust into his hands to be signed, some waved at him from the crowd.

About 3,000 people – all men – had waited three hours for him at a mud cricket field at Wah Cantonment, a rough-hewn factory town 35 miles (56km) north-west of Islamabad. Tomorrow is election day and local people had come to see Imran on the stump.

The size of the turn-out would have pleased any Westminster politician, but it was more a measure of Pakistan's political desperation than of its people's faith that change is afoot. The crowd was thrilled to see the superstar of a sport they follow with religious passion. But people appeared to have little hope that Imran the politician or, more importantly, the body to which he is seeking admission, will make a difference to their lives.

Yasir Zahoo, 25, a mechanical engineer, was sure that Imran, the leader of the marginal Tehrik e-Insaaf party, would not make it into the next government, and that the chant of "Imran for Prime Minister" from the crowd was about as realistic as restoring the 49-year-old all-rounder to the Pakistani cricket captaincy. Yet he had turned up because he was a member of Pakistan's young generation, a middle-class professional, an optimist. "We have to hope," he said. "We have to hope for something to get us out of our desperate situation."

He will need all the optimism he can muster. In 1999 General Pervez Musharraf seized power and has since ruled by military dictatorship, albeit relatively benign. His officials portray tomorrow's elections to the parliament, the National Assembly, as the restoration of civilian government led by a prime minister.

Yet scepticism abounds over the extent to which President Musharraf will truly loosen his grip. The signs have not been promising. In August, he amended the constitution to extend his term in office by five years and give himself the right to dismiss parliament at will. A military-dominated National Security Council has been set up and is expected to play a central role in government. The leaders of the two strongest, though split, parties – the former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif of the Muslim League – have been barred from the election. In a glaringly undemocratic measure, sold as an attempt to create a capable and responsible legislature, only university graduates can stand. The talent pool comprises a mere 2 per cent of the population.

The election includes important issues. How much will the Islamists gain from the popular resentment of President Musharraf's willingness to join President George Bush's pursuit of the Taliban and al-Qa'ida? And will the elections set the stage for a power struggle between the President and the new parliament and prime minister?

No single party is expected to win an overall majority. Opinion polls predict the PPP, the Muslim League. and its breakaway faction, the PML (QA), will be the biggest parties.

The public mood seems indifferent and cynical, the product of years of military rule and corrupt civil governments. Mubashir Zaidi, a writer with Herald magazine, said: "The courts are partial; the military rules the government; the election commission is compromised and so are the political parties. So where do we go?"

Those sentiments were easy to find in the crowd around Imran Khan. "There will be no change here," Tahari Iqbal, 19, a student of computer engineering, said. "Musharraf will impose the people he wants, the people who favour his policies, and we will carry on, just as now."