Millenium bug may trigger traffic gridlock

A DIRE warning about the consequences of a computer crash at the millennium - with public safety put at risk, and business facing breakdown - was issued yesterday by the European Commission.

The commission said that the threat would be aggravated by the fact that the "millennium bug" will collide with extensive computerised preparations for the introduction of the single currency from next year - adding to the critical workload.

Some British officials suspect that a full-blown 2000 computer crisis could lead to postponement of the introduction of the single currency - giving European Union member states the ideal excuse for greater financial preparation for the currency launch.

In Brussels, Barbara Roche, trade and industry minister, said that Britain, currently holding the EU presidency, was staging a community-wide conference in May to brainstorm solutions to the problem.

Don Cruickshank, chairman of Action 2000, the Government body set up to tackle the issue, said yesterday that his organisation's main role would be to co-ordinate public sector contingency planning"to ensure there are no major disruptions to public services" such as telecommunications, health services, transport management systems, social security and emergency services.

The commission paper, on "The Year 2000 Computer Problem", explained that because computers had been programmed to recognise two-digit years, as in 98, the year 2000 would be represented by 00.

But most computers were programmed to interpret 00 as 1900, and would be unable to cope. "Several systems are already beginning to fail when processing future dates and others will not show failures until later in the year 2000," the paper said.

But the crisis is looming on many fronts - with no individual, company or country immune from the threat, simply because many computer programmes are inter-linked, and because there are not enough engineers and programmers available to deal with it, even if they did know where to look, and what to do.

"Given the complexity of the problem, organisations must be aware that they may fail to complete their conversion process by the end of 1999," the paper said. "Adequate contingency plans need to be put in place in order to ensure business continuity or survival should the IT support fail or become inadequate.

"This is a task for the business as a whole and requires direct involvement of the top management.

"The shortage of programming and project management skills is becoming one of the most critical issues. Apart from the overall scale of the problem, the availability of professionals who are proficient in relatively old programming languages and are able to manage very large and complex projects is limited."

Small business are particularly vulnerable - but big business that relies on small business suppliers and customers could also be put at risk by their failure.

The paper warns: "Global infrastructures, such as those supporting telecommunications, financial markets and air transportation, may be affected, with economic and social consequences world-wide."

Leading article, page 20