It’s a cliffhanger – but the real question is whether Rishi Sunak can persuade Tory members

I understand that, if there is a tie for second place tomorrow, there would be a further ballot ‘as soon as possible’, writes John Rentoul

We still do not know the shape of the final stage of the contest (Reuters)

The fourth ballot of Conservative MPs has set up a knife-edge contest for the fifth ballot tomorrow. Liz Truss has closed the gap between her and Penny Mordaunt from 11 votes to six. If she makes the same progress tomorrow, in picking up more votes from Kemi Badenoch, who was eliminated today, she will be one vote short of making the final two names who will go to party members.

I understand that, if there is a tie for second place tomorrow, there would be a further ballot “as soon as possible”, presumably on Wednesday evening.

So we still do not know the shape of the final stage of the contest, but the YouGov poll of Conservative Party members carried out yesterday and today suggests that whichever of Ms Mordaunt and Ms Truss faces Rishi Sunak would win. The poll puts Ms Mordaunt 14 points ahead of Mr Sunak and Ms Truss 19 points ahead of him.

On those numbers, Mr Sunak should prefer to face Ms Mordaunt, but this is such a volatile contest that it is hard to make a judgement about how the contest will play out over the next crucial two-and-a-half weeks.

Mr Sunak’s plan has to be to use his more assured performances in the TV debates to convince party members in the BBC debate on Monday and the party hustings thereafter that he would be more likely to deliver victory at the next general election.

After tomorrow’s selection of two candidates, the party members will choose the winner by 2 September, with the winner announced on 5 September. Party members have chosen the leader only three times, in 2001, 2005, and 2019, and in each case the result was overwhelming. Iain Duncan Smith, David Cameron and Boris Johnson all won with more than 60 per cent of the vote. This time it could be closer.

The critical period of the last stage of the campaign is likely to be the first week of August. Ballot packs are expected to arrive by post with party members between 1 and 5 August, and most of them are likely to vote online, using the codes in their pack, straight away. That means Mr Sunak has only two and a half weeks to turn opinion at the grassroots round.

That means he has to understand why he is unpopular with party members and find a way to overcome their doubts – plus of course he has to try to undermine the credibility of whichever opponent he is up against.

This is difficult, because party members have reacted emotionally to the record tax burden. The hostility to Mr Sunak is not based on what actually happened. Mr Sunak was more reluctant to raise taxes than Boris Johnson, and keener to cut foreign aid.

Party members are reacting against the discomfort of paying for policies that they – most of them – supported at the time. Very few actually think that higher borrowing is the right policy, or want to cut the government’s support for vulnerable people with their energy bills. But they resent Mr Sunak lecturing them about “fairy tales”.

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Then there is a contradictory but overlapping Venn diagram of emotional response, which is the feeling that Mr Johnson was betrayed by his chancellor. This is rubbish, of course, because the only person responsible for the downfall of the prime minister is the prime minister.

Mr Johnson was going to be removed by a majority of Tory MPs, because the pressure to change the rules to allow another vote of confidence was becoming irresistible. Ministerial resignations were a shortcut to the same outcome.

But the myth has already formed that Mr Sunak in particular was responsible for bringing down a popular and uniquely vote-winning prime minister. This myth is remarkably similar to the legend that Margaret Thatcher was brought down by the “treachery” of her cabinet, when the reality is that the majority of Tory MPs wanted her out because she refused to give up the poll tax, which was going to lose them the next election.

Whichever opponent he faces after tomorrow, Mr Sunak has only two and a half weeks to persuade Tory members to vote on the question of who is best placed to win the next general election, rather than on the myths about the recent past.