Hong Kongers’ last hope for democracy may be dwindling as Trump deals with unrest at home

It seems highly unlikely that Washington will be willing or able to maintain its focus on events more than 8,000 miles away. China senses this and is not hesitating to drive home its advantage, writes Adam Withnall

Graffiti of presidents Trump and Xi Jinping kissing each other through face masks on a wall in Berlin’s Mauerpark (AP)

Hong Kong’s citizen activists have tried for decades to win concessions at home from an administration working hand in glove with the mainland. Now, they realise that international furore could be the movement’s last weapon in the defence of the city’s autonomy.

Whatever the activists may think of Donald Trump as a leader, the fact is that the US still has the economic clout to keep China‘s actions in Hong Kong in check – if it wants to. As a result, Trump’s comments, and those of his officials, in support of Hong Kongers’ right to protest and freedom of speech, have been widely shared.

Now, however, the rapid spread of the US’s own unrest, coming after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody, threaten Hong Kong’s own protest movement. With Trump so occupied with troubles at home, and seemingly set upon an authoritarian path of crushing them, it seems highly unlikely that Washington will be willing or able to maintain its focus on events more than 8,000 miles away.

China senses this, and is not hesitating to drive home its advantage. Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing leader, on Tuesday accused Mr Trump of “double standards” for the way he has handled Hong Kong’s protests on one hand, and the unrest sparked by George Floyd’s death on the other.

“They take their own country’s national security very seriously, but for the security of our country, especially the situation in Hong Kong, they are looking at it through tinted glasses,” Lam told a weekly news conference.

On Saturday, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry reacted to a State Department comment on Hong Kong by responding simply “I can’t breathe”, a phrase that was among the last words uttered by Floyd, and which has become a rallying cry for US protesters.

If American concerns about rights violations in Hong Kong can be so easily batted away, the pro-democracy movement will find having an ally in the White House is not very much use at all.

There isn’t really anywhere else to turn, either. Europe’s response on Hong Kong has been muted, experts say, at least in part by its reliance on China for PPE to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Boris Johnson is supposed to be weaning Britain off its reliance on China – but the delay in Dominic Raab’s reaction to the new Hong Kong security law showed the UK still fears doing anything that will anger Beijing too much.

Without allies in the west and with the attention of the world’s media elsewhere, there is a real chance of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement being snuffed out, in just a matter of weeks, with little more than a whimper. After Hong Kong’s riots last year were described as the biggest threat to his administration, Xi Jinping will scarcely be able to believe his luck.

Yours,

Adam Withnall

Asia editor