US midterm polls: Trump admits Republicans could lose the House as current predictions say Democrats will win

The election is just four days away

Trump releases one of most racist political adverts for decades on eve of election

Donald Trump has said Republicans could lose control of the US House as the 2018 midterm elections are just four days away.

At a "Make America Great Again" political rally in Iowa the president said: "It could happen. Could happen. And you know what you do? My whole life, you know what I say? 'Don't worry about it, I'll just figure it out.' Does that make sense? I'll figure it out."

It was an uncharacteristic lack of confidence from the usually bombastic leader but experts have predicted Democrats could win the 24 seats it needs to gain control of the lower house of Congress for the first time since 2010.

The polling data shows, however, the Senate will still likely be controlled by conservatives.

This year's election will break all manner of records in terms of spending as well. According to the Centre for Responsive Politics, approximately $5.2bn will be spent in this year's midterms.

In one race alone $93m has been spent to get the Senate seat from Texas. Democrat and current US House Democrat Beto O'Rourke and Republican incumbent Ted Cruz have been trading barbs as poll numbers show a tight race.

In Georgia, Democratic governor candidate Stacey Abrams looks to make history as the first female African-American governor in the country's history. Controversy abounds as opponent Republican Brian Kemp is also the Georgia secretary of state who would be in charge of a possible runoff election should neither candidate receives 50 per cent of the vote.

Barack Obama and Oprah have joined Ms Abrams on the campaign trail and former president Jimmy Carter has even asked Mr Kemp to resign from his current position in light of his candidacy.

In Florida, Andrew Gillum, the current Democratic Mayor of Tallahassee, squares off with Republican Ron DeSantis in an important race for the president as he begins campaigning for his 2020 re-election bid.

Amid the debates on healthcare policy and taxes, a migrant caravan of approximately 7,000 people still 1,000 miles away from the US-Mexico border has been in the headlines on the campaign trail.

Mr Trump a video he tweeted showing a Mexican migrant smiling and boasting about killing police officers is “tough but correct”.

The US president shared the video ahead of the midterm elections on 6 November.

Both Democrats and Republicans have denounced the video as a racist campaign tactic.

To see how the day unfolded follow our coverage below

Please allow a moment for the live blog to load

Key Points

• Here are 7 things to look out for in the 2018 midterms
• A migrant caravan has become a contentious point on the campaign trail 
• Democrats appear to be confident about regaining control of the US House

[2 November 2018 12:15 · Samuel Osborne]

[2 November 2018 12:35 · Chris Stevenson]

President Donald Trump has claimed a video he tweeted showing a Mexican migrant in a courtroom smiling and boasting about killing police officers is tough "but correct." 

Democrats and Republicans have denounced the video as a racist campaign tactic. 

[2 November 2018 12:38 · Chris Stevenson]

The video was reminiscent of the infamous "Willie Horton" ad used against Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis in 1988 and condemned as racist advertisement. 

Horton, who was black, raped a woman while out of prison on a weekend furlough. As Massachusetts governor, Dukakis supported the furlough program 

Mr Trump told The Washington Times in an interview that he didn't view it as a "Willie Horton ad at all." The president said it is just an advert about a "bad guy" who twice entered the country illegally and committed crimes. 

[2 November 2018 12:47 · Chris Stevenson]

Even Republicans have attacked the use of the video.

"This is a sickening ad. Republicans everywhere should denounce it," said Republican Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, a frequent Trump critic.

[2 November 2018 12:50 · Chris Stevenson]

Republican ​Representative Carlos Curbelo, seeking re-election in a Democratic-leaning South Florida district, said he had not seen the video but criticised Mr Trump's tactics. 

"I can tell you that it's definitely part of a divide-and-conquer strategy that a lot of politicians, including the president, have used successfully in the past," Mr Curbelo. "I hope this doesn't work." 

[2 November 2018 13:01 · Chris Stevenson]

We have the last US economy numbers before the midterms this morning. Economic progress having been a cornerstone of Mr Trump's midterms platform.

 

[2 November 2018 13:16 · Chris Stevenson]

As for Mr Trump - a new Washington Post analysis says that in the weeks leading up the midterms the president has made more than 1,000 false or misleading claims - an average of 30 a day.

[2 November 2018 13:27 · Chris Stevenson]

Mr Trump has two 'Make America Great Again' rallies today - one in West Virginia and one in Indiana, so sure we will hear much more on the issue of immigration.

[2 November 2018 13:38 · Chris Stevenson]

Here are Mr Trump's thoughts on his schedule today:

 

[2 November 2018 13:49 · Chris Stevenson]

In efforts to re-take control of the House, Democrats are targeting 21 districts carried by former President Barack Obama in 2012 that shifted to Trump in 2016 — districts now testing the strength of a Trump-era political realignment shaped by education, race and gender. 

With the election days away, Democrats have cause for optimism. Public and private polling suggest Democrats are poised to capture at least two-thirds of the Obama-Trump districts, according to operatives in both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity to the Associated Press.