Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Australian Open Men’s Final betting tips:
- Jannik Sinner -5.5 games - 2pts @ 23/20 with Unibet
- Jannik Sinner to win 3-0 - 1pt @ 12/5 with bet365
There will be a new name on the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup on Sunday with Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev contesting the Australian Open men’s singles final.
Despite this being Sinner’s first Grand Slam final, the Italian is a warm favourite at 2/5 with tennis betting sites to become Italy’s first men’s singles major champion since 1960.
That is mainly due to the 22-year-old’s dominant display against 10-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals.
Djokovic won just three games in the opening two sets before taking a third-set tiebreak. But he was unable to continue the revival as Sinner won the fourth to make it three victories in his last four matches against the Serbian superstar.
Most notably, the world number one – who had been the clear favourite in the outright Australian Open odds lists – failed to create a single break point in the match.
Medvedev makes third AO final
Having made light work of (statistically) the third-best returner on tour, Sinner now faces the number one in Medvedev. This will be the Russian’s third AO final after he went down to Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in 2021 and 2022 respectively.
Medvedev was in real trouble against Alexander Zverev in his semi-final, struggling to handle the German’s serve and going two sets down. But he then upped his game and two tiebreaks went his way before Zverev rather lost the plot in the decider.
It was a gruelling match with plenty of long rallies, in part thanks to cool temperatures which made for slow court conditions. Medvedev eventually came out on top after four hours and 22 minutes with Sinner requiring an hour less.
The former skiing prodigy should be the fresher having had far fewer minutes on court with all of his wins prior to the semi-final coming in straight sets.
Meanwhile, Medvedev had to fight back from two sets down in his second-round match against Emil Ruusuvuori, and needed a fifth set to account for Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter-finals.
Recent head-to-head record favours Sinner
Head-to-head records can be untrustworthy when it come to predictions, but this one certainly warrants attention.
Medvedev won their first six meetings up to and including last year’s Miami Masters final, but Sinner has prevailed in their last three encounters.
The first of those was the China Open final last October, in slower conditions than Melbourne, with Sinner winning in straight sets.
Then came two three-set victories, in the final in Vienna in similar conditions to this Australian Open, and then in the semi-finals of the ATP Tour Finals in Turin on one of the fastest courts of the year.
Those wins over Medvedev, combined with the players’ respective form, strongly suggest that Sinner will come out on top. Perhaps the only notes of caution are that Djokovic was clearly not at his best in the semi-final, and that Sinner might feel pressure in his first Slam final.
The key to the match is whether Medvedev can do much on return. On the evidence of this tournament, the answer could be no with Sinner being broken just twice this fortnight. By contrast, Medvedev has been broken at least three times in five of his six matches.
On first serve, Sinner has the edge, winning 78 per cent of points to Medvedev’s 75 percent. But the big difference is on second serve with Sinner operating at 60 per cent against Medvedev’s 48.2 per cent.
Part of that is due to Medvedev serving 43 double faults to Sinner’s 10. In short, the 2021 US Open champion is going to have to raise his level significantly on serve.
Australian Open final predictions
Based on all the evidence, Sinner could run out a comfortable winner. While he could get tight with a first Slam title in sight, he is the superior player across almost every metric at present.
It could well follow a similar pattern to the semi-finals with Sinner on top in the first two sets and Medvedev fighting back in the third.
Based on the expectancy that Sinner will prove hard to break, our main play will be for him to win on the games handicap.
While a handicap of 4.5 games is available on almost all UK betting sites, some offer alternative game handicaps, including the 23/20 about Sinner -5.5 games with Unibet makes most appeal.
Set betting is also common on gambling sites and, despite this being their first best-of-five clash in a Slam, we think Sinner’s superiority is such that he can win in straight sets.
A best price of 12/5 is available with bet365.
Get a free bet on the Australian Open final
The first Grand Slam event of the year wraps up this weekend but there's still time to claim a free bet to wager on the remaining action in Melbourne.
For example, by using the Betfred promo code Welcome40, new customers can unlock £30 in free bets to use on Betfred’s sportsbook, as well as £10 to use on their UK online casino.
To earn the Betfred bonus, punters will need to open an account before depositing and betting a minimum of £10 on any sport. They will then receive their £30 in free bets, which can be used on tennis or any other sport.
Before signing up for any betting apps or websites, always read the terms and conditions and if you do have a bet on the Australian Open this weekend, remember to gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
