Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma prediction: Undefeated hosts unlikely to slip up

Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma betting tips

• Bayer Leverkusen to win & over 2.5 goals – 6/5 with bet365
• Jeremie Frimpong over 0.5 shots on target – 11/10 with BetVictor
• Roma to receive most cards – 10/13 with Unibet

Defeating Bayer Leverkusen has proven impossible this season and they are in pole position to add the Europa League to their Bundesliga title heading into Thursday’s semi-final second leg against Roma (8pm, TNT Sports 2). 

Xabi Alonso’s men stretched their unbeaten streak to 48 games across all competitions with a 5-1 thrashing of Eintracht Frankfurt at the weekend, showing no ill effects from their efforts in Rome a few days earlier. 

They’d made it 47 undefeated in the Eternal City via a 2-0 win in the first leg of their last four tie with Roma thanks to goals from Florian Wirtz and Robert Andrich. 

The Europa League odds make them strong favourites not only to reach the final in Dublin later this month, but Leverkusen are no bigger than 1/2 on betting apps to claim the second part of what could be a remarkable treble.

Roma have been pushed out to 35/1 to go one better than last season’s runners-up finish in the Europa League and will need to improve on their first leg performance after being outplayed.

They went to Leverkusen at this same stage last season and ground out a goalless draw. But the Italians will need to be far more adventurous on their return to keep alive any hopes of reaching the final.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma tip: Treble-chasers heading for Ireland

Leverkusen were left frustrated by Jose Mourinho’s version of Roma when being eliminated at the semi-final stage of last season’s Europa League, but found Daniele De Rossi’s iteration more to their liking. 

The Germans won the shot count 19-8 in the first leg and registered 2.07 expected goals, and Alonso suggested in his pre-match press conference there’d be no let up for the second leg with his players highly motivated by last season’s frustrating loss to the Romans.

Both teams have evolved since squaring off 12 months ago, albeit Leverkusen’s transformation has been the more impressive. They are dynamic and clinical when in possession and compact and hard-working when they don’t have the ball.

Alonso was able to rest some of his big guns at the weekend, making eight changes for the win at Frankfurt with the likes of Wirtz, Victor Boniface, Jeremie Frimpong, Alex Grimaldo and Jonathan Tah given a break. 

They’ll likely come back into a team that’s won nine of their last 10 games at home in all competitions and tends to score for fun at the BayArena, averaging over three goals per game across the Bundesliga and Europa League.

Over 2.5 goals has quite often clicked on Leverkusen’s efforts alone, but Roma should play some part in the scoring. 

Despite being second best in the first leg, they had chances with Romelu Lukaku hitting the woodwork and Tammy Abraham going close late on. 

They’ve got a decent away record too, their only loss in the last 10 games on the road coming in the second leg of their Europa League tie against Brighton after winning the first leg 4-0.

Unfortunately, a record of two wins in the last 10 European away games doesn’t inspire much confidence they can end Leverkusen’s long unbeaten run, while they’ve only once made it through a European tie after losing the first leg at home in six attempts.

But De Rossi’s men are unlikely to go out wondering and if Paulo Dybala can shake off the injury that forced him off in the 1-1 draw with Juventus at the weekend, they’ll have quite the strikeforce to test Leverkusen’s defence.

Football betting sites expect this second leg to be slightly cagey judging by the prices on goal markets, but there’s attacking talent to suspect we may see over three goals as part of another Leverkusen victory.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma prediction 1: Bayer Leverkusen to win & over 2.5 goals – 6/5 with bet365

Leverkusen vs Roma betting tip: Flying Frimpong to pose a threat

Frimpong played the final 18 minutes of Saturday’s win at Eintracht Frankfurt, but that was still enough time to net his 14th goal of the season. 

His efforts at the weekend came off the back of a strong showing against Roma, who had no answers for the marauding full-back, especially after Lorenzo Pellegrini and Leonardo Spinazzola were booked.

Despite being tagged as a full-back, Frimpong is more often than not found in opposition territory, and he was used to great effect in the first leg of this tie.

The 23-year-old had four attempts in goal in Rome, the joint-most of any Leverkusen player, and has now had at least one shot on goal in his last 17 games.

Some gambling sites make him odds-on to hit the target but BetVictor go 11/10 he finds his mark and this looks an opportunity to take on the bookmaker.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma prediction 2: Jeremie Frimpong over 0.5 shots on target – 11/10 with BetVictor

Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma bets: Firey Italians favourites in card race

Only fierce rivals Lazio (95) have collected more cards than Roma (91) in Serie A this season and their habit for picking up bookings when losing means they are worth considering in the most cards market on betting apps.

They received three yellows in the first leg, the same number as Leverkusen, but that equal distribution of cards doesn’t tally with what we’ve seen this season as a whole. 

These are two teams that have been in the Europa League from the start so their card numbers are comparable with Roma on 25 and Leverkusen 17. 

Looking at when the Giallorossi have lost this season, they’ve tended to pick up multiple cards, including five in their two previous defeats before facing Leverkusen. 

If we suspect Bayer Leverkusen will win this game, it may also be worth backing Dutch official Danny Makkelie to show the Italians the most cards in the second leg.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma prediction 3: Roma to receive most cards – 10/13 with Unibet

Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma free bets

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