Men's Australian Open predictions: Betting preview with tips, best odds & free bets

Men’s Australian Open predictions

• Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open – 3pts @ 21/20 with SpreadEx
• Grigor Dimitrov to win the Australian Open – 1pt each-way @ 40/1 with bet365
• Jannik Sinner to win second quarter – 2pts @ Evens with Betfred

Novak Djokovic turns 37 in May and yet shows no signs of slowing down as embarks on a quest to win an 11th Australian Open and record 25th Grand Slam title overall to potentially kickstart the year to end all years for the world No 1. 

The Serb is currently level with Margaret Court on 24 Slams but looks poised to pass the Aussie great in Melbourne over the next fortnight with tennis betting sites making him a warm favourite to come out on top again. 

Djokovic has won the last four men’s singles championships he’s participated in at the Australian Open – he missed 2022 due to Covid protocols – and another win would be the first step on the road to a Golden Slam. 

For all Djokovic has achieved in tennis, he’s missing an Olympic gold medal from his trophy cabinet. He could achieve that in Paris this summer, potentially part of a Golden Slam which would require him to win all four majors and the Olympics. 

Only Steffi Graf in 1988 has completed the feat, but who would bet against Djokovic becoming the first man to do it?

He nearly completed a calendar slam last year, only for Carlos Alcaraz to beat him in the Wimbledon final. 

The Spaniard is priced up on betting apps as Djokovic’s main rival in Australia and is one of only four players to start the tournament at single figure odds to win it, the others being Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev. Rafael Nadal may well have joined that group but pulled out of the tournament through injury.

It’s possible to make cases for all three men, and a few others at bigger prices in the Australian Open odds, lifting the Norman Brookes Trophy, but prising it from Djokovic’s grasp won’t be easy.

Immovable Djokovic to remain on Melbourne throne

Djokovic dropped just one set en route to winning his 10th Australian Open last year, becoming only the second man after Rafael Nadal at the French Open, to reach double figures at a Slam. 

His victory down under kickstarted another dominant year for Djokovic, who won seven titles in total and finished the year ranked No 1 for a record eighth time.

His end to 2023 featured a few slips, notably two defeats to Sinner at the Tour Finals and Davis Cup, but it’s tough to go against a refreshed Djokovic, who holds an 89-8 win-loss record at the Australian Open. 

Hyeon Chung was the last person to beat the defending champion at Melbourne Park back in 2018 and he always seems to perform when the chips are down, going 27-1 at the Slams last year.

He’s dismissed fears over a wrist injury sustained in preparation for the tournament and the top seed has been helped out by the draw too.

A semi-final meeting with Sinner is a distinct possibility but it’s worth remembering he did beat the Italian handily to win the Tour Finals after his group stage loss.

Before then, Djokovic will need to see off qualifier Dino Prizmic in round one and could come up against a struggling Andy Murray in round three before taking on rising American star Ben Shelton in the fourth round. 

A rematch of last year’s final against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last-eight will hold no fears for Djokovic, if the draw goes as seeded, with the Serb having won their last 10 meetings. The Greek’s form means he’s liable not to even get that far.

Djokovic and the Australian Open have become a perfect match and his physical and mental toughness make it difficult to look beyond the reigning champion, even at the short prices.

Time will eventually catch up with Djokovic but with the all-time Grand Slam record and first part of a Golden Slam driving him on, it’s unlikely to be at this edition of the Australian Open. 

Australian Open Tip 1: Novak Djokovic to win the Australian Open – 3pts @ 21/20 with SpreadEx

Resurgent Dimitrov may make a run

In the bottom half of the draw, Alcaraz and two-time runner-up Medvedev are the big fish and will have their supporters on betting sites. 

Alcaraz beating Djokovic in five sets at last year's Wimbledon was seen at the time as the passing of the torch but the Spaniard hasn’t really kicked on, slumping towards the end of 2023. 

Djokovic avenged that Wimbledon loss, beating Alcaraz at both the US Open and Tour Finals, and the 20-year-old hasn’t been past round three in Australia previously. 

Medvedev does have the experience of deep runs in Melbourne and probably should have one Australian Open title to his name. 

The Russian is well-suited to the demands of hard courts but finds himself in a tricky quarter with some very capable rivals. 

Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov are all dangerous opponents, but perhaps the stand out name in this quarter is Grigor Dimitrov.

Once dubbed ‘Baby Federer’, the now 32-year-old warmed up for the Australian Open by capturing his first title since 2017 with victory in Brisbane.

The Bulgarian has seemingly picked up from where he left off at the end of 2023 after reaching the final of the Paris Masters and his game looks somewhere close to what it was when reaching a career-high ranking of world No 3 in 2017.

He’s a former semi-finalist at this event and placed in a half of the draw where anyone can beat anyone on their day, his odds of 40/1 to win the Australian Open are intriguing. 

Dimitrov may offer value for money as an each-way bet at that price and is our outside pick for our Australian Open predictions.

Australian Open Tip 2: Grigor Dimitrov to win the Australian Open – 1pt each-way @ 40/1 with bet365

Sinner could shine early on

World No 4 Sinner is being earmarked for a big 2024 after a strong finish last year, which included wins in Beijing and Vienna, a starring role in Italy’s Davis Cup win and those pair of victories over Djokovic. 

He also enjoyed a run to the Wimbledon semi-finals, his best performance at a Slam to date, and can at least equal that achievement at the Australian Open. 

Of the top four men in the outright betting, Sinner’s path to the latter stages looks the most straightforward on paper with home hero Alex De Minaur and fifth seed Andrey Rublev his biggest challengers.

Sinner beat both those two twice last season though, while other notable names in his section, such as last year’s Australian Open semi-finalist Karen Khachanov, aren’t in the best of form.

Sinner is odds-on to win his quarter with most bookmakers but Betfred offer him at even-money and he’s tough to ignore at that price for our final Australian Open prediction.

Australian Open Tip 3: Jannik Sinner to win second quarter – 2pts @ Evens with Betfred

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