Italian Open predictions: Tennis betting tips, odds & free bets

Italian Open predictions

• Mariano Navone to win Italian Open men’s title - 0.5pt at 80/1 with Betfred
• Holger Rune to win Italian Open men’s title - 1pt e/w at 20/1 with bet365
• Daria Kasatkina to win Italian Open women’s title - 0.5pt e/w at 80/1 with BetGoodwin

The clay-court season continues apace with the Italian Open taking place in Rome’s Foro Italico over the next 12 days. Madrid claimed its fair share of casualties with Jannik Sinner forced to miss his home Masters event with a hip injury, and Carlos Alcaraz ruled out with a recurrence of the arm problem which has dogged him in recent weeks.

In the men’s singles, Novak Djokovic is a warm favourite on betting apps having skipped Madrid for “non-medical” reasons. 

The world No. 1 has played just three tournaments this year and is without a title success, reaching the semi-finals of the Australian Open and the Monte-Carlo Masters. Sinner beat him at the former with Casper Ruud defeating the Serbian in Monaco.

With Sinner and Alcaraz out, Djokovic is a best-priced 2/1 on tennis betting sites to claim a seventh title in Rome. Stefanos Tsitsipas, runner-up to Djokovic in 2022, is next best at 11/1 with Ruud and Alexander Zverev 12/1.

Italian Open Tennis information

• When: The main draw starts on Wednesday, 8th May
• Where: Foro Italico, Mont Mario, Rome
• How to watch: Sky Sports Tennis
• Last year's winners: Daniil Medvedev (men), Elena Rybakina (women)

Daniil Medvedev is the defending champion having won his first ATP Tour title on clay 12 months ago. The Russian - who is available at 14/1 - was another man to feel the pain in Madrid, quitting after the first set of his quarter-final against Jiri Lehecka with a thigh injury. 

Czech Lehecka, who had previously knocked out home favourite Rafael Nadal, went on to retire during his semi-final against Felix Auger-Aliassime due to a back problem and misses Rome.

Andrey Rublev was the surprise victor in Madrid, overcoming illness and an inflamed toe, to beat Auger-Aliassime in Sunday’s final. Given those ailments, and how the draw fell for him, he is easily passed over this time.

Italian Open betting tip: Oppose the favourites in men’s tournament

With temperatures low in the Spanish capital, conditions were far slower than last year. Madrid normally plays quicker than ‘normal’ clay due to its altitude but, this year, it looks like it could provide a reasonable guide to Rome which is closer to sea level. 

Although most of the leaders in the Italian Open odds struggled for form in Madrid, Djokovic has looked eminently beatable this year and this could be an opportunity for an outsider to emerge.

Mariano Navone has achieved some excellent results on clay this year, beating fellow Argentinian Francisco Cerundolo on his way to reaching the final in Bucharest. He pushed 2023 Italian Open runner-up Holger Rune close in Madrid before winning the Challenger title in Cagliari at the weekend. 

Zverev in round three would pose a tough test but at 80/1 with Betfred, Navone looks worth a small each-way bet in the top half of the draw.

Italian Open tip 1: Mariano Navone to win men’s title - 0.5pt at 80/1 with Betfred

The bottom quarter looks the weakest in a half featuring plenty of players who are equally as likely to go deep or fall early. Rune is in that bottom quarter and should be one of those to go far. 

He could face Nadal or, more likely, Hubert Hurkacz in round four before Medvedev in the quarters and perhaps Tsitsipas in the semis. 

While the Dane’s defeat to big-serving Tallon Griekspoor in Madrid was something of a surprise, Rune will find conditions in Rome a bit more to his liking. 

He also boasts a 3-0 head-to-head record against Tsitsipas. At 20/1 generally on betting sites, there's the potential he gives backers a good run for their money.

Italian Open tip 2: Holger Rune to win men’s title - 1pt e/w at 20/1 with bet365

Italian Open prediction: Fitness worries over women’s market leaders

The women’s event did not witness the same sort of attrition in Madrid with Iga Swiatek winning a final-set tiebreak to beat defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the final. That said, Rome saw its fair share of retirements last year with defending champion Elena Rybakina complaining about back-to-back 12 day events in the run-up to the French Open.

Rybakina was the one to profit last year with Swiatek quitting in the deciding set of their quarter-final and Anhelina Kalinina retiring after a set of the final. 

But the 2022 Wimbledon champion has played a lot of tennis this year, winning three titles and reaching the Miami final as well as reaching the semi-finals in Madrid.

World number one Swiatek is a short-priced favourite at 7/5 on gambling sites to win her third Italian Open in four years, but securing titles back-to-back - especially on clay - is a big ask. And with Roland Garros just a few weeks away, any twinge or ailment could result in a precautionary retirement.

The second quarter looks by far the weakest in the draw and, with fitness doubts over the protagonists, consistent clay-courter Daria Kasatkina looks a big price. 

The Russian reached the semi-finals two years ago and can be forgiven her last-16 exit in Madrid to the tricky Yulia Putintseva. At 80/1, she represents value in what appears a difficult event to predict.

Italian Open Tip 3: Daria Kasatkina to win women’s title - 0.5pt e/w at 80/1 with BetGoodwin

Italian Open free bets

For those looking to follow our Italian Open predictions it's worth checking to see if you are eligible for free bets before placing a wager.

BoyleSports are regarded as one of the top sites for tennis betting and they are offering new customers a £20 free bet to stake on the Italian Open. All you need to do if follow the steps below:

• Sign up for BoyleSports using a mobile device via the link below.
• Make a minimum deposit of £10.
• Place a bet worth £10 or more on a sportsbook selection with odds of evens (2.0) or greater.
• Free bets will be credited to the user's account within five minutes of the qualifying wager being settled.

As well as their sportsbook, BoyleSports also operate casinos online, featuring a wide selection of UK slots.

Before you sign up for Boyles or any new betting sites, read all the terms and conditions of the welcome offer. If you bet on the Italian Open or any other sport, make sure you are GambleAware.