Success! Thank you for signing up to Independent Betting
Masters Snooker betting tips: O’Sullivan vs Murphy
- Over 9.5 frames – 11/10 at Betfred
- Shaun Murphy to win the first frame – 11/10 at Unibet
- Highest break over 130.5 – 2/1 at BetMGM
Betting sites are going big on Ronnie O’Sullivan beating Shaun Murphy and strolling into his 14th Masters final this weekend.
The Rocket takes on Murphy in Saturday’s first semi-final at 1pm (BBC One & Eurosport). He is the firm favourite to win but insists he’s been out of form throughout the week, claiming he was “lucky to get through” his quarter-final clash with Barry Hawkins.
The seven-time world champion is never too far away from a controversial comment and heads into the weekend having branded Alexandra Palace “dirty”, “cold” and “freezing”.
Murphy, meanwhile, has kept a relatively low profile with routine wins over Zhang Anda and Jack Lisowski to get this far.
He hasn’t beaten O’Sullivan since 2017, however, and will need to get off to a fast start on Saturday if he is to topple his old adversary.
Betting apps have settled on odds of 7/4 for Murphy to win here, while the best price on O’Sullivan is the 1/2 available with Betfred.
Here, we look at three picks for O’Sullivan vs Murphy that carry greater value beyond the match odds.
Ronnie O’Sullivan vs Shaun Murphy predictions
There’s no point looking at the past record between these two players as they haven’t faced each other since 2019. A better gauge of how this match plays out is found in their recent performances.
O’Sullivan is the greater talent and can grind through results without playing at his best – as he did against Hawkins last time out. Murphy, though, is the in-form player and cannot be overlooked here.
Murphy is more likely than Hawkins to take advantage of O’Sullivan’s errors. Hawkins should really have done better than winning just three frames against Ronnie in their quarter-final, and if O’Sullivan puts in the same display then this will be a closer contest.
Bettors unable to split the pair should consider the total frames market with Betfred going 11/10 on over 9.5 frames in this best-of-11 contest.
Masters Snooker Tip 1: Over 9.5 frames – 11/10 at Betfred
Underdog may make good start
Murphy has taken the first frame in his two matches at the Masters this week, lost the second, and then gone on a hot run to streak away from his opponents.
It’s unlikely that he will put the same pressure on O’Sullivan in the middle frames on Saturday. However, there’s every chance Murphy claims the opener.
O’Sullivan admits he isn’t comfortable at Alexandra Palace and could take a frame or two to get going.
Murphy needs to strike early if he is to have any chance of reaching his first Masters final since winning the tournament in 2015.
Unibet price Murphy at 11/10 to claim the first frame. Whether that inspires a charge to victory on Saturday is another question entirely.
Masters Snooker Tip 2: Shaun Murphy to win the first frame – 11/10 at Unibet
Big break back on Saturday TV
Murphy and O’Sullivan have each recorded just two century breaks at the Masters so far. Three of those have surpassed 120, with Murphy nailing the standout performance with a 131 from The Magician in an opening-session blitz against Lisowski.
His speed and aggression at the table is paying off.
O’Sullivan, meanwhile, can drop a century break without too much bother. Once he is in the zone, he’s hard to stop. He also rarely gets rattled by opponents. When Ding hit a maximum break in the first round, O’Sullivan came out and delivered a 127 to reassert control in the first-round match.
We’re likely to see at least one high-scoring break between Murphy and O’Sullivan this Saturday. The bookies reckon there’s a 75 per cent chance we witness a break above 110.
A more viable bet, then, is pushing the line to +130.5 at odds of 2/1 at BetMGM. Remember, we’re expecting this to be a close encounter so we should have at least nine frames to unearth a high-scoring break.
Masters Snooker Tip 3: Highest break over 130.5 – 2/1 at BetMGM
How to get a free bet on the Masters
The Masters Snooker will wrap up this weekend at Ally Pally but there's still time to grab a free bet before the action concludes.
Spinzwin Bet are giving new customers a £35 free bet when they open an account through this link. To unlock the free bet, punters must deposit and wager a minimum of £20 on their qualifying bet at odds of 1/2 or greater.
As part of the welcome offer, fans of casino sites can also enjoy 11 free spins on the Viking Rune Craft slot game.
Before signing up for Spinzwin Bet or any new betting sites, always check the terms and conditions of the sign-up offer and if you are having a bet on the snooker this weekend, please gamble responsibly.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
