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Scotland vs England tips
- Scotland -4.5 points - 10/11 @ Betfred
- Under 43.5 total points - 10/11 @ BetVictor
- Duhan van der Merwe to score a try at any time - 6/5 @ BetUK
Scotland and England will write the latest chapter of an illustrious and storied Calcutta Cup history in Edinburgh on Saturday evening with the visitors seeking to make it three wins out of three (4.45pm, BBC One).
After nearly 30 years of being bullied routinely by their English counterparts, Scotland have lost just one of the last seven meetings between these nations (W5 D1), the most recent saw the Scots triumph 29-23 at Twickenham thanks to some Duhan van der Merwe magic.
Their stoic efforts in a controversial loss to France a fortnight ago, in which they arguably should have been awarded a match-winning try by on-field referee Nic Berry, and their record of six wins from their last seven home games prior to that is why rugby betting sites have made them favourites to retain the Calcutta Cup.
Scotland's side shows three changes from the France game with Kyle Steyn back on the wing. Toulouse full-back Blair Kinghorn has been recalled after fully recovering from a knee injury whilst Jamie Ritchie replaces Matt Fagerson after missing the first two rounds of the competition.
England face the prospect of losing four consecutive Home/Five/Six Nations matches to Scotland for the first time since the mid-1890s, but head to Murrayfield buoyed by having set a new national record by overcoming a nine-point half-time deficit to overcome lowly Wales in round two.
Steve Borthwick has made five changes to his side, including a controversial decision to overlook Freddie Steward in preference of George Furbank, despite a good performance in their win over Wales by the former.
England may not have blown anyone away with their performances so far but they are still in the Six Nations title hunt after two wins. However, those aspirations could take a it in Edinburgh with our Scotland vs England predictions leaning towards the home side.
Scotland to get the job done
We believe Scotland’s favouritism is justified, especially with the return of Kinghorn at 15 and Steyn lining up with van der Merwe on the wings.
England scrapped hard just to get over the line against both Italy and Wales, who are widely considered the two lowest quality teams in this competition, overcoming half-time deficits on both occasions
Scotland are beneath them in the table, in part due to the TMO controversy of a fortnight ago, and that should only spur on the home side to get back into the winner’s circle.
Furthermore, England have been notoriously poor in recent Six Nations campaigns when it comes to meeting the expectations placed upon them by gambling sites.
England have covered the pre-match spread in just five of their 22 Six Nations games since the start of 2020, which perhaps better than anything else underlines their continued underperformance in this tournament.
Scotland look to have a little more upside about them, and they are fancied to win well at Murrayfield.
Scotland vs England Tip 1: Scotland -4.5 points - 10/11 @ Betfred
Calcutta Cup typically low scoring
Speaking of trends, there’s another one regarding this particular matchup that worth looking at when studying the Six Nations odds, although backing it would leave us not wanting to see too many tries.
England and Scotland both played tight and tetchy matches in round two and come into this encounter with 14 of the last 18 meetings across all competitions (since 2008) falling well under the 43.5 total point mark available on most betting apps.
The lower scoring in more recent weeks has in part been due to some conservative attacking approaches from both sides.
England have turned to kicking on average once every three rucks in the Six Nations and are using the offload on fewer occasions than all other sides in the championship, while they’re scoring a competition-worst average of 3.45 points per entry into the attacking 22.
We would be surprised to see both teams clear 20 points, so we're backing under 43.5 points despite being a comparatively low total.
Scotland vs England Tip 2: Under 43.5 total points - 10/11 @ BetVictor
Scottish sensation to return to the scoresheet
Van der Merwe is the first cab off the rank when it comes to try scorer markets every week, and with good reason.
Last time out against France, an incredible and lengthy streak came to an end, but behind it is an immense sample size that makes BetUK's price of 6/5 for him to be back on the scoresheet again this weekend worth pondering.
Van der Merwe’s outing against France in round two was just the second time in his entire 39-game international career that he failed to beat a defender - once for Scotland and once for the British and Irish Lions against South Africa in 2021.
In his 36 appearances for Scotland, he beats an average of five defenders per match, including three in round one against Wales.
That was when he notched up a double, while he’s also got a brace against England at Twickenham last year to draw upon for inspiration.
Scotland vs England Tip 3: Duhan van der Merwe to score a try at any time - 6/5 @ BetUK
Grab a free bet on Scotland vs England
The Calcutta Cup clash at Murrayfield is the standout fixture in round three of the Six Nations and there are free bets available from bookmakers out there to use on Saturday's fixture.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
